Form Analysis Belmont 2nd July

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 2 July, 2011

Race 1:

A handy bunch of two year olds here with Flying Affair the definite testing material. She led and won two races in good time in the lead ups to the Karrakatta, a race in which she was pressured for the lead and only faded in the last 200m. She'll get away with being a little underdone here at the 1000m and will lead or breeze and be the one to catch. A few resume here after very good debuts such as My Bonny Lad, and You Say So. Add that to the trial form of Chicago Lights and Prager and it makes for a great race. The tips will be Flying Affair from Chicago Lights and Prager.

No Bet.

Race 2:

The same lot of stayers go around again this week, with the addition of Sense of Purpose, who was a late scratching from the last encounter. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Sense of Purpose is too short again and should be closer in the market to horses like Amberlyn, Hawkeye Mort and Heart Ache. The latter over raced quite badly last time out, drops considerably in weight and gets the services of William Pike this week. While her run last week was ordinary, she can improve here. Sense of Purpose is the testing material, but she now comes off a month between runs and I'll be risking her again. Hawkeye Mort and Amberlyn went mad out in front last start. While getting along at a good clip suits both horses, I think they went a bit too hard last start. Russell Hanson goes onto Amberlyn and I think they will err on the side of caution again and restrain this horse. Hawkeye Mort will run along, which suits him best and he does improve drastically at one point during each campaign. Broome Time just plodded at the journey last time and Saratime loves the wet. This is a much more wide open race than the market suggests. Hawkeye Mort from Heart Ache and Sense of Purpose but pick the value in this race.

No Bet.

Race 3:

I was a knock for Morant last start and he nearly proved me right, looming up like he was going to win easily and laying in, almost getting himself beaten. Today is a different story with small field, he should be running over the top of these with ease. The only query with this race is that there are two horses that would be suited to leading, but have showed little interest in leading at their last few, Casanova Jack and Frenchman. Frenchman has been ruining his chances by over racing and with blinkers off here, I doubt they would be keen to lead. One of the two must lead by default, but will this create enough speed to get a genuine result? Our Larrikin is the testing material and meets Morant better at the weights, but I feel lack of pace will suit Morant better (if lack of pace eventuates). Key Biscuit likes the wet but he and Baskerville Street were beaten too far last start one would think. The punters won't look so deeply into this race, the'll rally to Morant at the $2.50. Morant from Our Larrikin and Frenchman.

Suggested Bet: Morant at $2.50.

Race 4:

Latoria has the form lines to be winning a race like this, but like most, I have a query over the step up to 1300m. With the wet track, it may also be more akin to a 1400m race which puts a real doubt on her for me. Avante performs well fresh and is more suited to the distance and with plenty of pace from Pillow Time and Latoria, she's the one to beat. Bermaise was well supported last week before being scratched at the barrier. This was in comparison to her previous run where she drifted heavily and ran accordingly. Watch the market for her again this week. Boto Vermelho showed a glimpse of her Sydney form, but the race she won was a blanket finish and she got the perfect run whereas many others had tougher runs, the jury is still out for me. Pearlesque gets Pike and wasn't beaten far last start and Answers Are also a chance. Canardly Miss is the improver here at 50/1. Hard race. Tipping Avante from Latoria and Bermaise.

No Bet.

Race 5:

This race is completely devoid of speed. On that basis, I think Amelia's Dancer will possie up here and sprint best at the finish. Kerrific will probably have to stride forward here by default and Lie In Wait may go forward here too. Moonbound was a good win last start but in a race with much better speed than this. She'll get back and is a definite risk. This is a very skinny race now with the top weights scratched. Amelia's Dancer from Lie In Wait and Kerrific, no confidence.

No Bet.

Race 6:

The best race of the day. Mantango will probably lead again with Rouge Dior and Excelorada adding some pressure. Depending on how the track is playing by race six, I like one that will get back here nad should be fighting out the finish with the main chances at double figure odds. Radical Critique's win was convincing victory last start, despite the narrow margin, ridden hands and heels only by Daniel Staeck. Staeck takes the ride again and you can always be confident when your money goes on a Diamond Dan ride. Mr Kaminski and Excelorada were both good runs against each other at Northam. Caves Road probably should have won last start, but drawn wide and a month between runs, up the the 1300m, he is a risk at the price today.

Suggested bet: Radical Critique, small each way at double figures.

Race 7:

Another race with good pace compliments of School Rumble, McScar, Extra Beat and Dante's Gold. Talent Show has had a small let up since her run back in May where nothing went right. She pulled out at the 600m to stride forward, but was overtaken and behind a wall of horses. She had no luck and Pike will look to remedy that today. School Rumble has been running really good races, but the weight, coupled with the 1200m just tests this Sequalo gelding. The state of the track will make his task at the 1200m even more difficult. Redhage runs his best run first up, and a win here wouldn't surprise despite the ordinary end to his last campaign. Extra Beat should get the pie run for Dan Staeck and was close up in this class last time. The smokey for me is Henry The Pharoah. His first up run was ordinary, but last week he should have almost won when pole axed by Jagabout in the blanket finish. They'll bet $21 about him today but to be honest, I prefer the experience and soft hands of Troy Turner on this difficult to ride horse. Talent Show to win from Extra Beat and Henry the Pharoah.

Suggested Bet: Talent Show if you can get near $4.60 with a small saver on Henry The Pharoah.

Race 8:

They saved the hardest of the day till last. God help us if we are behind! Warburg has been backed from $61 to $21 in early markets, but as we have seen on the forum this week, bets taken could have been as little as $100!!! Don't be relying on any fluctuations from Centrebet as a guide. Cobble Lane will get the top here and should get an easy time in front but the 1600m will test this bold striding front runner. Aerolink will also go forward and while his first up run was poor, he was 4 wide, then 8 wide turning last time out and surprisingly beat a few home. It's a big price this week at $81 and his form last campaign has him right in this race. One Cool Queen, while not one I like to tip, probably has the edge in this race. She's a risky betting proposition however, drawn 1 with Ryan Hill aboard. Rose of May will start the favourite, and while winning well at Northam last week, to see her winning three in a row is beyond me. Graeme Ayres does have her in career best form however. Danish Conquerer obviously loves the wet and if you could guarantee he'd run the same race, he would be winning this, regardless of the barrier. Striking Guru is consistent but doesn't win often enough to recommend a bet and Endless Time is a definite chance back to the 1600m with Harvey aboard. Way too hard to tip in this race, it would only be a guess!

Suggested Bet: Small each way on Aerolink at the million to one that will be on offer.