Form Analysis Belmont 6th July

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Wed 6 July, 2011

Race 1:

A good bunch of two year olds for a midweeker. Flag Officer was most impressive in winning first up at Northam after leading throughout. The Excites gelding will probably lead them up again but it's a big step up in distance to go from the 1100m to 1400m. Don't Give A Star had no luck at all, sitting three and four wide before giving it away last time out, he can improve here and may stride forward again. Softeis had the pie run behind Flag Officer at Northam and may appreciate the step up in distance. The two I like are Pop Culture, who got back on the fence and ran on stoutly behind Akhedasset, and Caiguna, who sat wide without cover and ran on impressively behind King Cubator. Pop Culture obviously takes a drop in class here and drawn the better barrier is the one to tip but if they bet any decent price about Caiguna, we'll be on him for value, particularly with W Pike sticking.

Suggested Bet: Pop Culture and/or Caiguna at each way odds.

Race 2:

Celebration Girl should zip to the front in this despite the wide barrier but will most likely get pressured from The Puzzler, drawn outside her. Pike takes the ride on The Puzzler, who was only run down in the last few strides by Donneyonetime after leading and speeding over 1000m back in May. The query here is the 50 days in between runs, but Pike taking the mount must mean the Star Cross gelding is ready to fire. Radiant Prince is a horse well capable of upsetting here, but his second up record is much better than his first up. Kyra Yuill will ride patiently and he's well worth a spec at bigger odds. Mr Nicoffski goes just as well second up as he does first up and recode and Siamese Cat can also figure here, particularly the former. Yamunotri is the interesting runner from provincial NSW and won a trial at Belmont in decent time. We'll bank on plenty of up front pressure here, with Rayo Veloz and Wannabe a Rockstar adding to the pressure cooker, and tip wider in Recode, Mr Nicoffski and Yamunotri with a watch on Radiant Prince.

Suggested Bet: A little speck on Yamunotri if double figures are available.

Race 3:

Lovabruchill is an up and coming horse starting first up after a narrow trial win at Lark Hill. She has performed well fresh in the past and probably should have been unbeaten last campaign but for slipping badly when she ran third at Bunbury. Her trial win against Heart Ache and Proud Hero suggest she is right on song for a first up win. Sky Magic is another that trialed well behind Yamunotri, so suggest we keep an eye on Race 2 before investing there. Isabella Maree has winkers added and she is racing well below her best but has trialed since her last effort behind Zip Code. Risktaker is the improver here, didn't have the best of luck in the straight in Saturday company last time out and can bob up here at double figures. Dante's Princess had every chance last start and Grantham jumps off to ride Isabella Maree. We'll tip Lovabruchill from Risktaker and Sky Magic.

Suggested Bet: Lovabruchill at $3.50 or better with a saver on Risktaker at double figures.

Race 4:

My favourite horse Bizet will probably lead in this but will cop some pressure from the likes of Akheson and Wild Enforcer. The latter will probably sit out the speed battle and box seat. Tottenham Hots finally gets his chance with W Pike aboard, although drawn awkwardly again doesn't help his chances. He's been trapped wide for almost every run this campaign. Numerous Secrets is the danger but is drawn even worse than the likely favourite Tottenham Hots. The Hots sat wide with no cover last start in a race where they all finished within three lengths of the winner. The form out of that race is a question for me, with Fire Side winning well last week but Boto Vermelho and Henry The Pharoah both failed badly last weekend. If Pike can slot him in, he should win this but I don't think he'll be any value. Tottenham Hots from Numerous Secrets and Wild Enforcer.

No Bet.

Race 5:

Another good race where many of these met each other on the 22nd of June. Navarda Lad had the best run that day while Gavin's Road, Ysmael and Rain's Edge all had trouble getting clear at different stages. Captivating Spirit was also flooding home late but she does seem a horse that gets a little out of her ground too often. Flying Heritage should get to the top here with ease with Pribyl, Jarrad Noske's first ride back, sitting outside him. With Festival Star now out, I'll tip Flying Heritage who should get an easy enough lead here. He has finished close up to better horses over 1200m in Playing God and Cavallo Pazzo back last year and that form should hold up well here. Union City can box seat and figure here although I think he'll find it hard to overcome the front runner. Two Techniques is the big smokey here. It was an excellent trial back on the 20th of June and the P Harvey lead should not be ignored.

Suggested Bet: Flying Heritage at $6 or better with a little each way on Two Techniques at big odds.

Race 6:

It was some sort of effort by Ben Pearce to get Cara Carabini to perform first up at 2000m at Pinjarra last start and this race isn't much stronger. With some natural improvement via fitness, he'll be very hard to beat in this race. Dark Vision ran just behind Cara Carabini, but had every hope that day while Comfortably raced wide and battled away for fourth. Invading is back for the Reed / Staeck combination but looked to have peaked on his run last start over a mile and may be wanting one more run before threatening at this distance. Cara Carabini from Dark Vision and Invading.

Suggested Bet: Cara Carabini at anywhere near $3.50.

Race 7:

The races get harder as we get to the end of the program. This is a race where I cant spot the speed at all, which makes it very dangerous. Acute Brute "used" to be a front runner, but hasn't been near the front for some time. Chatfield goes on and she may press forward here. Steves Pick will probably be in the market in this race but I don't think he's a miler and must be a risk. Monumental was a fair run coming from a long way back at Pinjarra on a wet track last start and before that was unlucky not to win first up. We'll speculate tha, going with the strength of the Peters / Williams / Pike combination from Amherst and Gallipoli Prince, who both had their chances behind Dante's Gold last start. Amherst has a decent record at the mile while Gallipoli Prince is untried.

No Bet.

Race 8:

Another very ordinary race to finish the day. Malaika is a very consistent horse, even while she is working her way up to the staying distances, but she will get back on the rails here which won't be the place to be with the rail out at 12m, even with the cutaway. Pure Rust was a much better run, but on the bog track at Pinjarra last start and Snuglet ran the best race she has in a while. The engagement of Paul Harvey is a plus, but she might struggle to get in here drawn wide. We'll once again go for the winning combination of Peters / Williams / Pike with Fortunes Smiles. Even though she was slightly disappointing last start, she has a lot more upside than most in this race. Maybe Us can improve after getting no luck last start and Vermeer is the second ride back for Noske and can also improve with blinkers on. Once again theres not a lot of pace in this, so take care in the last of the day.

No Bet.