Form Analysis Strickland Stakes Day, 9th July

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 9 July, 2011

Race 1:

Flying Affair was probably unlucky not to have won first up. Sitting, rather than leading, cost her the race that day but puts her in good stead here to get a stronger 1200m. Akhedasset will most likely get the front again here and be hard to run down and You Say So is the testing material for the favourite. Like Flying Affair last start, You Say So was unlucky not to have finished closer. We'll tip with the class of Flying Affair, from You Say So and Akhedasset to hang onto third. Stacks On my get trapped wide again here. The smokey is Pattie Me Lass, unlucky at two starts but the same applies here, she'll get well back and be running on strongly.

No Bet.

Race 2:

Hawkeye Mort's connections have said they are riding the front runner at the back in this, which changes the complexion on the race somewhat. That now leaves Smart Twister to lead with little other pressure. Heart Ache was most impressive last week but she goes up sharply in weight and the apprentice goes on in place  of Pike. Amelia's Dancer also backs up here and will get the trip whereas I'm not totally convinced Avonmore Terrace is a genuine stayer. Endless Time gets the services of Pike after a good win last week and I'll tip that way in a tough race. Amelia's Dancer and Smart Twister for the minors.

No Bet

Race 3:

They'll get a long at a good clip in this 1000m race with School Rumble getting to the front and Timely Queen striding up outside him. Harvey is less likely to let Timely Queen "blaze away" outside the leader. All Friared up certainly looks the one on paper with the good pace up front and the withering turn of foot she possesses. However I think she'll end up a tad short at start time. School Rumble has run three very big races, jumping from wide barriers with big weights. Down to 50kg and drawn 1, he'll be mighty hard to catch here and the $7 bet in pre-post was well over the odds. Megem's Boy, Noname City and Jay Jay Makster are capable of running on into the placings here. Ill tip School Rumble to beat All Friared Up and Noname City but the top two are very hard to split.

Suggested Bet: School Rumble each way at $5 or better.

Race 4:

Theres not a great deal of genuine pace in this, but I think makeshift speed will come from Kens Double, Ten Aces and Mighty Rossa (with blinkers added). Don't be surprised if Morant races up on the pace here with blinkers on and up in distance. The way he won last start, the gear change is a little puzzling. For that reason, he's a big risk this week as he has a propensity to over race even without the blinkers. Superscenic drops back in class and is more than capable of upsetting here at double figures. His run in the Hyperion was ok and his run before that in the Belmont Sprint was excellent. The only concern is with Kyra getting back too far on the turn. Zester can box seat again but goes up sharply in class and Foxy Boy, despite dropping in grade, is just not racing any good. Superscenic from Mighty Rossa and Morant.

Suggested Bet: Superscenic each way at double figures.

Race 5:

The scratching of The Underworld has robbed the Strickland of a bit of interest. Whether you liked him or not, he was going to add another dimension to this already intriguing race. King Kool Kat will finish up the favourite here. The ease with which he won last start will guarantee that. The only thing I will say is that just because a horse cruises past untouched, it doesnt mean he necessarily has 5 lengths up his sleeve. Impressive Jeuney will lead here and she will set a good clip as that is to her advantage. At some point, but its not guaranteed, Dasher may add to the pressure cooker with Kawatiri. The Kat should either chase Impressive Jeuney or sit outside her, being sure not to let her get the 2-3 length kick she needs on the turn to win it. The remainder will wait for their chance to have the last crack at those two. The best chance of an upset is Sense of Purpose. She probably just needed the run last week after missing the start before as a late scratching. If they bet double figures, she's worth a spec. Tipping King Kool Kat with a bit of confidence here. While he has never won at the trip, he has never raced at the trip the same rejuvenated horse as he is now. Impressive Jeuney and Sense of Purpose for the placings.

Suggested Bet: King Kool Kat at the $2.50 on offer, save on Sense of Purpose.

Race 6:

The Dayana is an excellent race where I beleive the connections of Black Moment  think they need to lead to perform their best. Windinthepillows, Private O'Dea and The Ramada will guarantee decent speed in this race. I like Media Alert, who was forced to stride forward last start after being trapped wide early, and battled away stoutly to the end in the Guineas. Right along side it I have Willow Bridge who got back and wide in the same race and had difficulting finding space before finishing on their heels. He won't get caught wide here from 2 with Knuckey aboard. Private O'Dea can run third but the barrier is a concern. If he can slot in behind the pace, he'll be right there at the end.

No bet.

Race 7:

Sweet Serenity just looks the goods on paper in the Belmont Oaks. The issue with her is that she will be forced to go back and does tend to get a long way out of her ground. Pike will somewhat counter that trait and she is getting to a better price now, but anywhere in the 2's is still too short. The main issue here is that there is hardly any pace. Its one of those races where one of the roughies will take up the front OR someone takes the initiative with one of the fancies drawn wide. On form alone, Svara was over the odds at the $10 but she has firmed up to $8 now. She should be a lot closer in betting to the favourite. Viarise is the smokey here and has already been specked from $51 to $31. She gets the trip, is in decent form but is drawn horribly. She has led before, so dont be surprised to see her go forward. Svara from Sweet Serenity and The Other Harv with Viarise into your novelties.

Suggested Bet: little speck on Viarise at $31 or better.

Race 8:

Another race lacking in speed. Carooned has been disappointing leading and last start opted for a sit. With blinkers off and up to 1400m, Harvey will sit for sure. That leaves Rose of May or Prince Maher the only pace. While not the biggest fan of Rose of May in this company, she will get the best run up front. Merimbula will need a lot of luck to slot in form his barrier and may get trapped wide. Smart Chance has run two shockers, one caught wide and one in the wet. His run prior would see him under double figures in this, but its a long bow. Nomad was too disappointing last start and can improve while Master Marlon always improves third run into his campaign. The price on Starlight Lady is a massive over correction. They sent her out at $61 last week and she is a $6 shot this week? Rose of May from Master Marlon and Nomad in a really tough race to finish the day.

No Bet.