Form Analysis Belmont 13th July

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Wed 13 July, 2011

Race 1:

A good race to start the day, the stand outs on ability look to be Grand Approach and Festival Star. Festival Star was a massive run last start, sitting three and four wide throughout, then held up in the straight and still running on to be beaten less than a length. She won't know herself from barrier four as she has never had such a good draw in her life. She does run into a good one here though in Grand Approach who was scratched from the Saturday race two weeks ago, won by Caves Road. He was asked to do nothing in his trial and the 1300m should suit nicely here. Right Honourable may look for the front again after winning last start and Heart Play had every chance sitting third the fence before challenging last week. I don't think dropping back to the 1300m is going to suit Ancient Spell at all as he is a little one paced for mine. Leaning towards Grand Approach even though the draw looks to suit Festival Star. Both are going to end up Saturday horses. Grand Approach, Festival Star, Heart Play for me.

Suggested Bet: Grand Approach or Festival Star, pick the value.

Race 2:

This is a good little race for the two year olds. Aloha Spirit faced the breeze and accounted for Jacobyte, which is no mean feat while Chicago Lights and Prager drop back from Saturday company. The former had no luck in the race won by My Bonny Lad, racing wide and greenly. He looked all at sea and with a little less pressure in this Wednesday race and blinkers added, he'll go much better based on his trials. Prager will probably get the front again and can do much better than his sixth in the same race. Tudor Creek was the other good trailer, albeit at Lark Hill but the Real Jester gelding looked to have them covered easily in that trial. Chicago Lights from Aloha Spirit and Prager.

Suggested bet: Chicago Lights each way.

Race 3:

Jacobyte will get the front again in this 2yo race and will appreciate a little weight relief. Bear Trader and Ave The Snip will no doubt add some pressure up front, the latter with blinkers added. Ave The Snip was given plenty of work to do at Northam and battled it out with Waterman's Bay who goes round in the second. Might pay to keep an eye on that race before investing here. Turner chooses the Edwards runner ahead of dual trial winner Dupeni, which is a good lead. I'll go against my better judgement here and tip on the trial form of Hot Sasso, who looked sensational in both trials this time in. If they go a bit hard up front here, she can chime in over the top of them. Jacobyte and Ave The Snip for the minors.

Suggested Bet: Hot Sasso each way.

Race 4:

Mavrick was a big run last start, sitting four wide throughout and beaten less than two lengths. With Pike going on, he'sll be hardest to beat in this 1000m race and may even get the front. Earl of Vasse impressed first up after more than a year off the scene and then disappointed second up but has trialed well since. Barrier 10 poses a problem for the four year old however. Impulsive Fighter drops back to the 1000m from 1400m at Northam where he sped away and got very tired late. This trip might suit better and Hall may opt for the box seat. Hi Kilmore and Crown of War the other chances, the latter with the services of Harvey. Mavrick is the tip and he should break through here from Earl of Vasse and Impulsive Fighter.

Suggested Bet: Mavrick.

Race 5:

Pace will come from the likes of Zip Code, Comparison and Wizaway in this 1400m race. Zip Code is a big query at the 1400m and will not get his own way up front here. Comparison should stride forward and Brown is a good choice of rider and should ride aggressively to get the best out of her. Talent Show was just a run first up and goes much better than that effort. Expect her to improve sharply in this, especially if they put some speed on up front. Speed ofcourse will also suit Irish Action and I Am Lucky. The latter was sacked long ago, but does have the ability to flash home late in this race. If you can forgive Talent Show, she's the best horse in the race and I'm willing to do that. Comparison and I Am Lucky for a silly place chance.

Suggested Bet: Talent Show each way if on offer, with a saver on Comparison.

Race 6:

An excellent bunch of three year olds for a midweeker. Mr Kaminski was thrown in the deep end after a good win at Northam first up and drops back in class (and distance) here. He looked to have enough gate speed to get close to the front. Pressure will come from his outside in Ima Citinpretty, who should also appreciate the drop back to 1000m. Cockeyed Bob has a ton of ability but is not an easy ride for Michael Grantham, especially drawn wide. He looked to lay in badly last start and I would prefer to see a senior on before tipping. Capricious Lad chased Barakey home last start and belted the rest of his opposition. He should get the pie run here behind a decent pace and we'll tip him on top from Mr Kaminski and Ima Citinpretty. Flying Foray had a very quiet trial for Dan Morton and Pike has stuck to this horse. Watch for the money to come because when this stable back them, they usually get the money. To see Cockeyed Bob flashing home would not surprise either.

Suggested Bet: A small spec on Flying Foray if there is any money for her in the ring.

Race 7:

In probably the hardest race of the day, I'd like to be tipping Princess Grandera on her last run, which was enormous. However, she'll be needing a load of luck with the apprentice on drawn the outside. Graceful Charli has shown a preference for the 1000m and should have gone close to beating Rose here in her very first race start. Snuff Gruffles was an excellent debut at Northam after missing the start and weaving through and just missing the win in the last stride. She won't be able to miss the kick in this grade, particularly drawn the 1. Not sure what to make of Knuckey onto Straleta and whether he got the choice on Fine Venture for Durrant or not? He rode Fine Venture in a very soft trial win at Lark Hill, while Knuckey goes onto Straleta for Edwards, who has won two trials at Belmont, one of those wins over Mr Kaminski (race 6). Fine Venture was spelled after her only start at Pinjarra where she was far from disgraced and may have been shinsore. We'll pee into the wind and tip the newcomers here, Fine Venture, Straleta and Snuff Gruffles. Graceful Charli and Princess Grandera will probably head the market however.

No Bet.

Race 8:

Hibernian will be the short priced favourite in this staying event, and rightly so. He was only beaten by the tempo of the race last start, where Century Flyer shot away at the top of the straight and stole that race. Leonora Pride can improve on a moderate effort last start where he did race against The Other Harv and Miss Tipsy Topsy over the mile. Jazz'n'shiraz can figure again, but did beat the desperately unlucky Cara Carabini, who sat wide throughout at Punjarra. Pampanito Jack raced wide without cover last start and battled away ok but doesn't look the same horse he was last campaign. The rest don't look much good to me. If Hibernian gets an ounce of luck, he should just win.

Suggested Bet: Hibernian, but perhaps leave the odds on alone.

Race 9:

Jagabout was one of many unlucky runners in the midweek race where most runners finished within two lengths of Boto Vermelho. McGruddy copped a suspension for that ride, but it looked like he had the winner under saddle and was desperate to achieve it. This may well mean an over correction on Jagabout's price this week, but he probably deserves to be favourite and Daniel Staeck can do some special things when our money is on! Dante's Gold will probably press across and lead and is more hope here at the 1400m than last start's 1200m. I prefer a stronger rider however. Beach Express must come into calculations back in this company after taking on Saturday horses last time out. I have finally sacked Henry The Pharoah, but Turner is the right choice of jockey for this horse. I'm going to go with the senior on Jagabout ahead of the apprentice on Beach Express and Dante's Gold for third.

Suggested bet: Jagabout each way but may be too short for that.