Form Analysis Belmont 16th July

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 16 July, 2011

Race 1:

Its possible the two 2yo events from Wednesday were of better quality than the first on Saturday, but one of them will take home the $30k purse. Kemilee is the testing material and was a little unlucky last start but wouldn't have been troubling Flying Affair and My Bonny Lad in that race. The markets suggests she's well ahead of the rest but I disagree. Make Me Blush has steadily improved with every run and Murphy's Red Boy was a soft win at Northam in good time. Waterman's Bay had every hope at Northam a week earlier and the addition of blinkers may add a length or two here. His previous trial was in blinkers and it was a convincing win in fast time. Gracetown was also an easy trial win in fast time at Lark Hill. Maradiego looks to have a ton of ability, but barrier manners have been ordinary at two trials. Wont be able to give these a start and win. Will tip Gracetown from Waterman's Bay, but very hard to split those two. Murphy's Red Boy for third, only because of the bad barrier. Knocking Kemilee at the short quote.

No Bet.

Race 2:

Barakey has been pretty impressive. Forget the horses behind him in two race starts, he's been running time and doing it on the bit. Jason Brown gave him a flick at his first run and the horse found lengths before being eased down. God help them if he gives the horse a proper crack with the stick. It's a shame for a horse like Go Jorj, who ran a sensational race first up behind Friday's Girl. It was probably just as good a run and Friday's Girl, who will be the short priced favourite in race six. Noname City has been unlucky not to win his last two, sitting wide no cover and being beaten narrowly. He meets Barakey particularly poorly at the weights in this. Cant see the rest even getting close. If something were to go wrong with Barakey, Go Jorj is the one to upset. Noname City for third.

Suggested Bet: If the bookies get silly and bet $1.70, worth punting to win your beer money.

Race 3:

This race has very little pace outside of Gum Nut Guru and Lie In Wait. Gum Nut Guru has led over a mile previously and won well and I can see no reason why he wouldn't lead here. Warwick surely was just giving him a hit out over the 1000m last week in a completely unsuitable race. Lie In Wait will go to the breeze but has had his chances at his last two. Kerrific "should" be the favourite and proved two weeks ago that he can sprint off a moderate pace AND handles the sting out of the track. Moonbound was desperately unlucky last time out but really needs a bit more pace to justify being favourite in a race like this. Mighty Rossa continues to find ways of getting into trouble and has proven very costly, but one day he will win. Fun Spice will get back and without any pace might struggle to pick them up, likewise Striking Guru. I really like Gum Nut Guru here if he can lead and dictate. Kerrific should be able to sprint provided he doesn't over race and Moonbound for third.

Suggested Bet: Gum Nut Guru each way at the double figures available.

Race 4:

A race completely devoid of speed. Dashing Dan goes onto Saint Tropez and blinkers are added. Its not really a leader, but you never know, the combination suggests that might be the tactic. Dasher has a habit of doing what we least expect though, so he may even go back to last! That leaves only Glen Erin Lad (who has led and won before and who led in his trial) or Radiant Prince (who has also led and won previously). I'm clutching at straws a little....Key Biscuit has normally failed when going forward and Avante is better going back. Goldy Junior and Kereign are both horses that have good sprints and can figure at double figures. Baskerville Street must be in the market, but will probably have to go back here. Im tipping wide, very wide with Glen Erin Lad. I've ignored his last run where he pulled up with elevated heart rate after racing wide. His trial was excellent. Radiant Prince has an outstanding second up record. They have punted him before and got the money and Knuckey is a great money rider. Avante for third, she's the class and could easily overcome the lack of pace with her sheer brilliance.

Suggested Bet: Glen Erin Lad each way and Radiant Prince is the smokey at 30/1.

Race 5:

There's better pace in the 3yo handicap. Mantango will have no choice but to race up front. View The Stars and De Troy Roy can also go forward. The blinkers will probably ensure Mantango leads however. Caves Road was brilliant last time out. I'm a big fan of the horse but the weight turnaround just gives me enough doubt in this race, 4.5kg to both Belora and Like An Eagle. Belora got well out of his ground in the same race as Caves Road and ran on stoutly. Like an Eagle was thrown in the deep end in the Guineas (1600m), raced wide and finished on their heels. Not sure quite where Like An Eagle sits from the 11 barrier, but I'd rather take the punt at the each way odds ($5) than the $2.50 Caves Road. Tips will be Caves Road, Like An Eagle, Belora however. Its hard to make a case for anything else, even New Time, despite his good form.

No Bet.

Race 6:

Pace will be ensured here from Pillow Time and possibly Elle Choisit if she gets away. Friday's Girl will be all the rage here and she is a very nice filly. She steps up out of 3yo company for the first time and will start at the short quote. While I think she's pretty good, as a bookie I'll be taking her on. Some of the more seasoned horses can run races here. See A Victory has a great first up record, Southern Comfort has found a new lease of life for Ben Owen and Zed Magic strung a few together last campaign and also goes well fresh. Friday's Girl will probably win but theres a good chance she will find some traffic and one of the other mentioned can knock her off. The best of those are See A Victory, Zed Magic and Southern Comfort.

No Bet

Race 7:

Kelia should lead the race unless connections perceive the rise in class worthy of sitting. Extra Beat, Cocky Boy and Incoherent can add some pressure up front. It's a much more wide open race than the market would suggest. Moneghetti was an excellent run last start, but just so-so the week prior. He can be disappointing on his day and brilliant on another. The result of this race will rely heavily on the tempo set up front. Lack of pace will bring Moneghetti, Frenchman, Ysmael and to a degree Incoherent, unstuck. All may get back or overly keen. Good pace however will work into all of their favours. We'll bank on a steady tempo and tip Incoherent to rebound after two unlucky runs from Moneghetti and Extra Beat. The smokey is Bombora, particularly if they don't go too quick. Rule a line through his last run, he can get a good run here and run a ticky at big odds.

No Bet.

Race 8:

Some of the up front pressure has come out of this race with the scratching of Saytorio. Timely Queen and Kens Double will ensure a decent pace though. This should set the race up for the likes of Black Felix, New Image and to a lesser degree The Corporation and Our Ol' Fella. I'm a big fan of New Image, particularly first up. I'd have had her clearly on top, but for the up and coming Black Felix, who kept stepping up last campaign and was a huge run at his only defeat in the Lee Steere. He only has to improve on his summer form and he'll be the one to beat. It's a line ball, New Image and Black Felix, with The Corporation and Our Ol' Fella together for third and fourth. If forced to dip into my pocket, I'd go the value of New Image at around $4.

Suggested Bet: New Image each way anywhere near $4.