Belmont Form Analysis 20th July

Greg Hooper | Metropolitan Racing | Wed 20 July, 2011

RACE 1 – WESTSPEED NURSERY HANDICAP

No. 2 FLAG OFFICER. Two-year-old event over the 1650m to start the day and there looks to be a very limited number of winning chances. The Paul Jordan trained FLAG OFFICER has had two starts for two relatively easy wins. He has led on both occasions, dictated and kicked home strongly. He looks the only leader in this race and he should hop straight to front from barrier 2 and make it a winning hat trick. NICKED looks a one paced grinder and the 1650m should suit him. Last time out he settled outside FLAG OFFICER in the run and kept whacking away to hold on for a place. JIM ‘N’ JIM drew a wide gate in that same race, settled down last and made steady ground from the tail, he will appreciate the 1650m. CANYOUSEE ME SMILE looks to have some ability. Both his efforts have thrown up an ‘inconclusive’ result as he has laid in badly both times and been unable to be ridden out. With the winkers going on I wouldn’t be surprised to see him improve sharply.

Numbers 2, 3, 11, 4

RACE 2 – WESTSPEED 3YO HANDICAP

No. 4 MOSSROY. Good little three-year-old race with the majority of the form at the top end of the weights. Going for MOSSROY as I think he will get a sweet run from barrier 1 and should really appreciate the step up the mile. First up he was a very good winner in maiden company beating a subsequent winner, Defy Me, and last week he was just caught flat footed when they started to sprint at the 500m but was doing his best work late. W Pike sticks and he should be able to settle him in the box seat. KIMBERLEY COWBOY looks the leader in the race and he can improve on his effort at Northam. He settled outside Right Honourable but tired late. I suspect he will be better when he can find the rail and control the tempo. MONUMENTAL has obvious claims and should settle in a perfect spot from barrier 2. He got all the favours last time out but still won well. The winner should come from one of those three.

Numbers 4, 3, 1, 5

RACE 3 – WESTSPEED STAYERS’ BONUS HANDICAP

 No. 11 DARK VISION. This looks a very thin staying race and I do think that DARK VISION gets her chance to break through for an overdue win. She was good last time but was just no match for the promising Cara Carabini. She did beat the rest of the field comfortably. William Pike sticks and I think she will outstay her rivals. I’m expecting big improvement from DEPORTMENT, she was a big winner first up over 1300m and then put straight into the Belmont Oaks where she was beaten 5 lengths. She should improve sharply at her second run over a trip. JOEHOUSEROCK has been running even races of late and Paul Harvey goes on for this assignment, he’s limited but can finish in the top four.  Of the rest ACUTE BRUTE, VIARISE, RANCHER’S BOY & SCRAPINDIPITY should be thereabouts for the novelties. I’m pretty keen that DARK VISION will handle them.

Numbers 11, 12, 8, 14

RACE 4 – WESTSPEED STAYERS’ BONUS HANDICAP

No. 4 OFFER ME JEWELS. This is a much better staying race with a number of promising stayers engaged. Going for OFFER ME JEWELS who has been working up to a win nicely this preparation and she should be cherry ripe at her fifth run back from a spell. She was very strong late last time out behind Smart Twister and she should get a nice run from her middle draw. HIBERNIAN treated his rivals with contempt last week, coming from off the speed and drawing clear for an easy win. Barrier 15 is a concern as he’ll have to settle near the tail but he is going well. BURIN comes into the race with Saturday class form and from barrier 2 should get all the favours. He looks well weighted with Kyra Yuill’s claim. REVISITED has found the line very nicely at his two recent efforts over the 1400m. He has always shown ability but has only ever won the solitary race. He can definitely play a part. Even with the scratching of CARA CARABINI this probably the best midweek staying event we have seen for a very long while.

Numbers 4, 2, 1, 14

RACE 5 – playeronline.com.au HANDICAP

No. 4 MR KAMINSKI. This looks one of the trickiest races of the day as the form lines are hard to match up. Going for the rock hard fit MR KAMINSKI from the Simon Miller yard. He was a solid debut winner, then had little luck in Saturday company and he ran an even race last week behind Troy Can. The blinkers go on to sharpen him up and if he can get over from his wide gate without spending to much gas then he is probably the one to beat. GINGERVATE resumes from a spell and she showed enough in her first preparation to suggest she would be more than competitive in this type of race. She has had a barrier trial but as it took place on the back straight at Lark Hill hard to really know how she was travelling on the line. HONOURABLE STAR was a debut city winner in his first preparation coming from off the speed and wearing down his rivals late. He resumes without a trial but with the blinkers being added he should settle close enough in running to get his chance. JESTER REASON is a first starter for Chris Stelmach he led and was pushed out to the line in his recent trial win but this isn’t a very strong race and I expect him to go forward and give them something to catch. ACHEATIN SMILE was a debut winner on Bunbury Cup Day this year, sitting outside the leader and doing enough. He is another who resumes without a trial.

Numbers 4, 7, 1, 6

RACE 6 – racingjobs.com.au HANDICAP

No. 3 LATORIA. This does look the special of the day. LATORIA has really furnished into a very good sprinter this campaign winning three in a line over 1000m in dominant fashion before stepping up to the 1300m and running a very game second to Avante. She had to do the bullocking work in running whilst Avante had the sweet run on her back, obviously Avante franked that form  by winning again on Saturday. No doubt there is some question marks about how she’ll handle the drop back to 1000m but classy gallopers can usually overcome this and with Michael Grantham’s claim she looks pitch forked in. Hopefully he can get her one off the fence early and from there this race should be over.  GRAND PLATZ has been a terribly frustrating galloper for his connections and punters, winning his first two starts and then having a run of ten outs. He tends to find trouble in his race’s but first up I expect him to sprint well fresh and be the one chewing up late ground. STARS ALIGNED makes his stable debut for Bruce Watkins. He is a galloper laden with talent but another who tends to find trouble and he has previously put in a few average efforts after putting the writing on the wall at his previous start. He was a recent trial winner (although hard to gleam to much as the trial was on the back straight at Lark Hill) and last campaign he put in a monster effort first up.  He is a potential blowout chance if he switches on. RECODE was a solid last start winner and from his draw he is sure to get all the favours, Paul Harvey sticks and he looks a must for multiples. CLASSIC RETREAT, WHISTLEDOWNTHEWIN & TWILIGHT HERO all resume from a spell. They all have good fresh cards, particularly WHISTLEDOWNTHEWIND. AUBURN STREAK makes her debut for Bruce Watkins she was going fairly for Simon Miller, she’ll appreciate the drop back to midweek grade. RAYO VELOZ didn’t get the best of luck first up sitting wide, he should improve. A really good midweek sprint but if LATORIA doesn’t get posted, she’ll be winning.

Numbers 3, 1, 8, 9

RACE 7 – tabtouch.mobi HANDICAP

No. 2 LOVABRUCHILL. The speed map looks relatively straight forward in this mares race. ISABELLA MAREE hops straight to front and LOVABRUCHILL will park on her back. From there think these two mares should dominate the race with Lovabruchill getting the upper hand late. She was no hope the way the race panned out first up. She was restrained to last from her wide gate and with the slow tempo she was unable to make any ground on the leaders. We saw last campaign she is a much better mare when ridden close to the speed as she has the ability to quicken sharply and put gap on her rivals. From barrier 1 she’ll tail ISABELLA MAREE and most likely use the cutaway and I think she’ll be too good. Clear second pick for me is ISABELLA MAREE she led and was rundown late at her recent outing. She’ll lead again and take some running down. Now that ROYAL CULTURE has broken through I expect her to win some more races. The barrier makes it tricky though as she will have to concede some nice mares a sizeable lead when they turn for home. WINEHORSE is a nice mare who can finish off strongly in her races. She strung together some good wins  last preparation. I expect her finish off her race in a strong fashion. Pretty keen here though, happy to back LOVABRUCHILL and anchor ISABELLA MAREE for the placings.

Numbers 2, 1, 6, 3

RACE 8 – perthracing.com.au HANDICAP

No. 5 DANTE’S LAST. Pretty hard to knock this four-year-old’s form. He has led and won at both his two runs back this preparation and last time out was the subject to heavy on course support- as was reported by The Diva – and he duly saluted. He looks the only leader again and if he gets terms to suit then he is the one to beat. I do think that COME PARTY is clearly the most classiest galloper of this field and if he is anywhere near it fitness wise he could quite easily smoke this field. Last winter he won two of his three starts when being able to close out his races with great gusto- his debut win was huge. The concern with him is he is first up from a year’s break with no trial under his belt- my best advice would be to monitor betting. If there is support I’d respect that and have something on. PRINCE TED is a lightly raced type who won on debut last campaign in what proved a good form race. The barrier makes it tricky as he might have to go back early but he definitely has some claims. STEVES PICK is suited dropping back to the 1200m, he is never runs out a strong 1400m so was surprising to see him go around at a mile two weeks back. I think he will be the big improver. Of the rest OUTLIER won a very ordinary race at Northam at his recent outing and MAXXIMUS DIGNITAS is getting on in years but may sprint well fresh.

Numbers 5, 4, 10, 9

GREG HOOPER

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