Belmont Form Analysis 27th July

Greg Hooper | Wed 27 July, 2011

RACE 1 – WESTSPEED NURSERY HANDICAP

No. 10 CLASSITHEATRE. This is not the easiest start to the day! Twelve runners and most have some claims. I’m going for CLASSITHEATRE who I think should be able to settle just behind the speed and should really appreciate the step up 1200m. I liked the way he attacked the line when beaten a nose to Jacobyte. CHECKPOINT was good on debut, he settled on top of the speed and battled on well to hold on for second. The blinkers go on so he should be in the firing line early and give a kick. There is plenty of trial form to look at as well. I thought INDEPENDENT MAK trialled very nicely, leading all the way and he was under no riding in the straight. His only race track start was a solid fourth, beaten less than 2 lengths to Red Hot Sax, who goes well. KEN’S BUSINESS wasn’t pushed in around in his trial and he found the line nicely. CONFIANZA got back and worked home but was under a little bit of pressure. SUGAR MAN led all the way but was being pushed right out on the line. INITIAL CONCEPT led and won his trial in good fashion, he appeared to have a bit left in the tank as well. SAXON KNIGHT hasn’t trialled but this is a regular practice for the stable. As you can see there are plenty of question marks with a lot of these runners so I will state the obvious and that is, monitor betting!

Numbers 10, 5, 1, 12

Suggested Bet – If you must - CLASSITHEATRE EACHWAY

 

RACE 2 – tabtouch.mobi HANDICAP

No. 1 RISKTAKER. This looks a good quality midweek mare’s race with a few nice types engaged. Very hard to put a finger on the speed which does complicate things a little.  I do think though that from barrier 3 RISKTAKER should be able to settle in the first few and from there will be hard to beat. Her last three starts have all been good and she will really appreciate the step up 1700m. At her final run in her last campaign she won comfortably over 1800m with Campbell McCallum aboard. He gets back on the mare today and I expect her to go very close. It was impossible to miss the first up run of SENTIMENTAL STAR at Pinjarra, she settled close enough to last in a big field, met some trouble approaching the straight but found the line very nicely late. William Pike goes on and she ran some nice races at around this trip last campaign. Hopefully from barrier 1 she can settle a bit closer and be in a position to strike. SUNNY  CITY was much better last start, finding the line hard behind Monumental. The barrier makes it tricky but she should be able to run into a placing. RED GEISHA is going nicely and she is a mare who should settle right on top of the speed and for that reason needs to be included. For novelties I think that MALAIKA is the value runner, she was terrific first up at Pinjarra but never got going last time out, the step up in distance suits.  

Numbers 1, 7, 11, 2

Suggested Bet – RISKTAKER EACH WAY or RISKTAKER WIN & SAVE SENTIMENTAL STAR.   

 

RACE 3 – perthracing.com.au HANDICAP

 No. 1 KINCAPLE. I’m going to speculate here and go for this former Victorian stayer, KINCAPLE, who is now in the care of Mark Reed. Some of his efforts over east have been enormous, where he has rattled home after settling in the second half of the field. He is first up over 1700m but he has trialled over 1200m in which he jogged to the line for third but was asked for absolutely nothing. He has good fresh form and last campaign first up he ran a very good 5^th of 14, lumping the 59kg. From barrier 1 he should be able to hold up about midfield and I think he will be very strong late in this event. As we know this is stable can land a bet or two so if there is money for him that should be a good lead to his chances. Clear second pick for me is BIG ATTITUDE who was a pretty soft first up winner for Adam Durrant. He does have to jump up to the 1700m but he has a touch of class about him. The rest of these have had plenty of chances and more than happy to say this is a race in two.

Numbers 1, 5, 9, 8

Suggested Bet – KINCAPLE WIN & SAVE BIG ATTITUDE

 

RACE 4 – racingjobs.com.au HANDICAP

No. 2 VERMEER. This looks a very thin event with the vast majority of this field coming into the race with questionable form lines. I tipped VERMEER as my best of the day at Pinjarra at his last outing and at the 200m he looked like he was going to annihilate his rivals, only to peak late and be nosed out on the post. It was still a good effort as he lost his position approaching the straight. Although he comes to town this field is hardly much stronger than what he competed in at Pinjarra and I think he should account for these and break through for his maiden win in this state. I’m expecting a big improvement from WHALAH. He hasn’t been suited at all in his first two runs back from a spell and I think he will settle on top of the speed and give a good kick. CHIEF OF WAR put in a brave display first up, parking wide in running but still fighting hard to the line. Blinkers and William Pike go on GET THE NET he might just lead and roll. He did win his maiden back in November in that fashion and MR VADIM drops back from 2000m, he’s a hard horse to catch but has to be included in the multiples.

Numbers  2, 4, 1, 3

Suggested Bet – VEERMEER WIN & something small WHALAH

 

RACE 5 – WESTSPEED 3YO HANDICAP

No. 1 RIGHT HONOURABLE. This three-year-old looks a massive chance to make it three wins in a line. He looks the only leader in this race and Michael Grantham should be able to dictate terms pretty similar to his win on him last week and from there most of these will find it very hard to get over him. FORTUNE SMILES has had a few chances of late but she looks one of the obvious dangers, she just got too far back at her recent outing but back against her own age group I think she’ll get her chance. HEART PLAY failed dismally last start but he was found to have a respiratory infection, at his best he can play a serious part in this event.

Numbers 1, 10, 2, 13

Suggested Bet – RIGHT HONOURABLE WIN

 

RACE 6 – WESTSPEED 3YO HANDICAP

No. 3 STRAWBERRY BEAU. This looks the race of the day with some nice three-year-olds clashing. There should be stacks of tempo with LISETTA & CITY BELS ensuring they are running from when the gates open. No doubt opinions will be divided but I’ll be going for STRAWBERRY BEAU who I thought was super on debut over 1000m and that was on the back of a very nice trial win. He’ll get back from his gate so he’ll need some luck but from what he showed on debut he is a three-year-old to follow. It has been well documented that LISETTA had the throat operation before her appearance at Pinjarra and it obviously did the trick as she was able to run her rivals ragged and post a dominant all the way. She’ll fire out from barrier 1 and will give them all something to run down. CAPRICIOUS LAD was terrific first up behind Barakey but just got too far back at his last start. From barrier 3 he should settle much closer it will just be a question of whether he can give all his rivals weight. Both RED MERCEDES and THE WIDDER resume from a spell, they both go well and I liked the recent trial of THE WIDDER. This might be too short but he should be finishing strongly. FESTIVAL STAR got back and never seriously figured last time in a race that was dominated by the speed horses. She also has claims. A really good quality midweek three-year-old sprint.

Numbers 3, 11, 1, 5

Suggested Bet – STRAWBERRY BEAU EACH WAY

 

RACE 7 – playeronline.com.au HANDICAP

No. 7 GRACEFUL CHARLI. This race looks chok full of speed with IMA CITINPRETYTY, CROWN OF WAR and HULA ROCK all likely to be pouring it on early. I’m going for GRACEFUL CHARLI on an each way basis. She won a couple of 1000m sprints up the Pinjarra straight last campaign and she had no luck at all first up behind Royal Culture, getting blocked for the majority of the straight and jogging to the line. She does have some early toe herself so hopefully she can push forward early and tuck in behind the speed. If MAVRICK is ridden properly, in that I mean ridden close to the speed! Then I think he is a big chance, especially with only 54.5kg on his back. His efforts behind Celebration Girl and Barakey were very good but he has been ridden off the speed at his next two starts and not figured. From barrier 3 I think he should settle much closer and if you have been backing him it might be a wise decision to go to the well one more time. Paul Harvey goes onto CROWN OF WAR and his from barrier 1 he can either lead or take the sit. A repeat of last start will see him very competitive in this. There was good money for IMA CITINPRETTY at her last start and she led them a merry dance and only got tired late. Wit Renee Forrest aboard I expect her to lead and give them something to catch.

Numbers 7, 3, 4, 5

Suggested Bet – GRACEFUL CHARLI EACHWAY

 

RACE 8 – CALL TAB TO BET

No. 5 PEALESQUE. We finish the day with a race containing plenty of depth and it should be a hotly contested betting affair. The pace looks strong with DANTE’S LAST and SIAMESE CAT both likely to come out running so looking for the horses who might be able to park just behind the speed getting the sweet run. Hopefully that runner might be PEARLESQUE especially now that the blinkers have been added. All her runs this preparation have been sound but she has just lacked that knockout blow. Her recent effort in a strong mare’s race was good, she did find the line hard late. Hopefully she can make use of her draw and settle closer to the speed. I think ORTESSA is ready to run a race. She was OK last start, parking on the speed and only weakening late. She should be able to settle behind the leading couple and get the gun run. DANTE’S LAST is going super. His two wins were dominant and last week he was entitled to stop with the way the race was run so to hold on for fourth was a big effort. He’ll look the winner somewhere in the straight.

Numbers   5, 9, 11, 2

Suggested Bet – PEARLESQUE EACHWAY