Form Analysis Belmont July 30

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 30 July, 2011

Race 1:

An interesting but small field to open up the programme. There should be decent pace here from Ten Aces and Kens Double. Afghani will possie third the fence and Our Ol' Fella and Avante will be near the rear. These two look the hardest to beat and with Avante to Our Ol' Fella's outside, I have her on top but she looks a little short in the two's. The chance for upset here is Afghani whose run first up was "just a run" but does have a good second up record. Adam Durrant is beginning to fire and the wet form is good. Avante from Our Ol' Fella and Afghani.

Suggested Bet: Each way Afghani, but maybe check the market for a little support.

Race 2:

This is a nice staying race with a few different form lines. Having said that, the only pace is Black Moment. His run was ok in the Belmont Classic, sitting outside the lead, although they didn't go that quickly. Hibernian and Burin both back up from last week, after having run three days prior to that on the Wednesday. I'm a slight knock on them for that reason. Offer Me Jewels ran in the same Wednesday race and ran on strongly off a slowish pace. Her run was excellent and blinkers go on and she drops 2.5kg in weight. I think the stars are aligned here for her, but as with all Mark Reed runners, make sure there is some money for her before taking the plunge. Monumental looks as though he will get the trip although untried. Pike is a big plus. Rancher's Boy was a much better run last start and Meeres is also a big plus. He's not a 50/1 shot, but I'm not suggesting to back him either. Maybe at the end of novelties.

Suggested Bet: Offer Me Jewels each way, check the market first.

Race 3:

The two year old race is a tough one. If I could be assured they would ride Flying Affair aggressively, I'd be tipping her confidently. I think she's close to the speediest 2yo going around. She's down in weight and back to the 1000m. Grantham is a strong young rider, but she'll need to get to the breeze here from the wide barrier. Jacobyte should lead again provided Gracetown decides to hand up, which you would think after his failure last start. You Say So was a very easy win at Northam, but horses that lay in concern me. Watermans Bay looks a nice type but will need a little more luck here from the 11. Chicago Lights is also a nice type and if things don't go right for the favourite, he's the one to beat. The Smokey is El Costa Mar. Her runs in the summer were just ok, but her trial suggests she has a stack of ability. Flying Affair from Chicago Lights and El Costa Mar but can't suggest a bet due to the uncertainty about Flying Affair.

Suggested Bet: take a stab that they ride Flying Affair like the best horse, back her each way if odds allow.

Race 4:

Right Honourable was a rank failure here midweek after jumping a length clear at the start and then sitting. He led throughout at his previous two and one would think the smart tactic would be to lead again. It does actually determine quite a few things here. That will mean Mantango gets the breeze. He over raced badly sitting last start and should lob outside the leader in this. His run over 1300m was indiscriminately bad after leading, but the track was slow that day, which may have been the cause. Go Jorj never got warm behind Barakey last time out and will get a good run behind a decent pace here. New Time took off before acceptors behind Caves Road and peaked late to be beaten only 1.5 lens. He'll also get a decent run from the 6 barrier. Found it hard to split Go Jorj and New Time with Mantango for third but a query over his ability to handle the going. Heart Play is also backing up from the Wednesday and was a strong win coming from well off the pace.

No Bet.

Race 5:

A really tough race where Kalgoorlie galloper Verster should get the front. Gum Nut Guru races consistently week in week out, but it has make the Verglas gelding a little dour. It seems he needs to get rolling and kick clear and he would just about hold anything out with his superior fitness. I think he'll get the breeze here. Answers Are is backing up from last week and is the testing material in this. She sat wide with cover last week and overpowered them and will probably have the sprint to overcome Gum Nut Guru. Reflective Star usually wins a race like this each campaign and the money last start at long odds suggests he's just about ready. Moonbound has had every chance and I don't like Zester at the mile. Answers Are from Gum Nut Guru and Verster to hang onto third.

Suggested Bet: Answers Are each way.

Race 6:

Here is a race with no pace at all. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Comparison needs to be ridden aggressively. Each time she is ridden forward and allowed to roll, she finds a couple of lengths. Sitting third the fence is not her go at all. McCallum is a rider who is more likely to allow this to happen although he hasn't ridden the horse before. Trustee Brown has found some of his old form, but will find this extremely tough from the widest gate with 58.5kg. Kereign gets in well here, as does Starlight Lady. Goldy Junior is a big hope but the barrier probably doesn't suit and I would prefer to see him pulled to the outside to make his run. Endless Time and Avonmore Terrace come back to the mile after attempting to stay, which neither did successfully. While both have claims, I couldn't tip either. Starlight Lady from Kereign and Goldy Junior with very little confidence in a tough race.

No Bet.

Race 7:

I've got my rose coloured glasses on here as I think New Image is an outstanding mare. Pike rode a gem of a race last start and she put them away without too much trouble last start. Black Felix was a big disappointment and although the excuse was the removal of the Norton Bit, he didn't seem to over race too badly to me. I can't forgive that run so quickly but he does have heaps of ability. Ma Shang from the east has an excellent 1200m record and can sprint, but his first up card is not that flash. The Corporation can possie up a bit better here and is a chance and so is the old boy Oroya Gold, who is no 40/1 shot. Timely Queen will get the front here and over raced when sitting behind the leaders last start, which told on her in the last 100m. McGruddy probably will not fight her and she will be the hardest to beat for New Image. Sherann goes well in the wet and can be storming home for novelties. New Image with some confidence over Timely Queen and The Corporation. I'm knocking Black Felix, but he could so easily make me look silly.

Suggested Bet: New Image each way.

Race 8:

A really tricky race to finish the day. The saving grace is there's heaps of pace from the likes of Glenmore, Rock Moves and Kelia. Just who leads is anyone's guess but it will set the race up for the swoopers coming down the middle of the track. Grand Platz is the eternal non winner, always seeming to find one better. Redhage was ridden rather passively first up and Pike on is a big plus, but under double figure is under the odds. Mickey Drippin improved sharply second up last time out and will get a good run from the barrier. Double figures about him is good value while Zed Magic should be afforded the same run and will improve on his first up effort without a trial. $31 was bet which was a good spec. Russell Road, and Rock Moves also have claims, although I prefer the latter over shorter. Zed Magic, Mickey Drippin and Grand Platz in a race where I really have no idea.

No Bet.