Form Analysis Belmont Newmarket 6th Aug

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 6 August, 2011

Race 1:

Its not often you can say it was a pleasure doing the form on a race, but I enjoyed the new season three year olds. A great little race. Gracetown was the false favourite here and with the scratching, will no doubt upset the market. Two outstanding trialers were Command Centre and The Weapon. The former seemed get stronger, the more vigour that was applied and I know Shooter McGruddy has been working out, so the pairing should suit. The Weapon on the other hand worked well into his Lark Hill trial and with Pike choosing to ride ahead of three others, its a great lead. Valley Girl comes out of the sires and the Karrakatta. She's a small filly and I'd like to hope she has grown a little since the summer. Identity Fraud, nothing wrong with his two trials and will go out at double figures here, simply due to the quality of the field. I'm tipping the value in Command Centre ahead of the big wraps on The Weapon and Identity Fraud for third. This could end up being a very strong form race.

Suggested Bet: Command Centre each way at the $9 available.

Race 2:

Its a race set up for Hawkeye Mort, blinkers go back on, Chloe Chatfield had a good affiliation with the horse and theres absolutely no other speed. Just one problem, he's going terribly. Ocean Cracker should sit in his slip stream and wtih William Pike aboard, should win this on his last three runs. Amherst has improved each run but the form is nowhere near as strong as Ocean Cracker. Cohort is just a horse and Grey Monarch has to be a query in a strongly run 2000m race, despite placing in the Gero Cup. Burin is probably the next fittest and can place based on that alone. Ocean Cracker clearly from Grey Monarch and Burin.

Suggested Bet: Ocean Cracker at anywhere over $3.

Race 3:

Unlike the first, I found this a tough race. Black Felix was the favourite here and will throw the market upside down. He was going to be a lay today for me and now it leaves the only pace as Kens Double or Classy Nugget, although they have taken the blinkers off and may want to sit the latter. Baskerville Street has been afforded every chance at her last three starts and Manahara improved sharply last time out. Ysmael ran a good race, getting way out of his ground last time and gets the services of Pike. Secret Enigma is working into form and is easily capable of shaking a race like this. I keep coming back to Classy Nugget. On his day, he could donkey lick this lot, but his last run, then a two month gap, indicates some sort of problem. I'm going to speck anyhow and hope for some sting out of the ground. Manahara from Classy Nugget and Ysmael. Manahara is definitely the testing material.

Suggested Bet: Small each way on Classy Nugget at the big odds.

Race 4:

A race with good pace and another to disappoint this campaign. School Rumble also strung a few together last year and ran two good races with 59kg before failing badly at his last attempt. The trial was just average and back to 59kg will see his price get to almost  double figures I think. Harvey will most likely sit and get a cushy run. Celebration Girl, Kelia, Troy Can and Ima Citinpretty will ensure a blistering pace here. The latter will lead as Shane Edwards mentioned in his post race interview after she destroyed them in the midweeks. This is a slightly different class however. It will set the race up for the likes of Jay Jay Makster, Earl of Vasse, McScar and even Grozny. Jay Jay Makster is the obvious choice, back in grade and with a closing sectional far superior to anything in this race but it just depends on how far back Michael Grantham allows him to drift on the fence. If he's too far back, it will make it a physical impossibilty. For that reason, and for value, I'll tip McScar, who was a huge run in winning last time out form Jay Jay Makster and Earl of Vasse.

No Bet.

Race 5:

Timely Queen takes a substantial drop in grade here and will get the front again. She was only topped by the outstanding New Image last week, who goes around in the Newmarket this week as favourite. She has never won with more than 57.5kg however , so she'll be breaking new ground. Latoria has disappointed in two runs since winning, despite sitting wide last time out. Let's see how McScar goes in the fourth before sacking her completely. Isabella Maree should come across to the breeze and for that reason I don't like her here. Elle Choisit will get the pie run, as should Rock Moves who was never closer than four wide last week. She's well and truly capable of winning this, providing the gut buster last week didn't ruin her. Festival Star will also be suited by the pace. Kim Classic trialed well and did everything right last campaign. She deserves her place near the top of the market. Rock Moves from Kim Classic and Timely Queen.

Suggested Bet: Rock Moves each way at $14, but a cautionary note due to last week's tough run.

Race 6:

Let's cut to the chase. Kincaple smashed them last start, pure and simple. While I'd like to make a case for one of the best improved horses in WA, Trustee Brown, he'll run a clear second. Mantango will over race again and while it hasnt stopped him from winning at 1400m last week, I think it might take its toll this week. Pace can come from Flash Gift, Attadale, Rich Success and even Chin Chin. If they decide to get silly, Dashing Dan will take off on Kawatiri. Whatever happens, its hard to see Kincaple being beaten.

Suggested Bet: Kincaple at $2.50 or better. Take the quinella with Trustee Brown and follow him up in Kalgoorlie.

Race 7:

A race where I thought I would find a way to knock All Friared Up, for the same reasons people will find to knock her this week. She meets them much worse at the weights, but I dont care, the ease of her win in the Beaufine was more than enough to compensate. You do have potentially the two best sprinting mares in the state matching it here. New Image was also outstanding last week and has to back up here. Throw in Kid Choisir, Blacksmith, Shock Value and Peach Tree and its a brilliant race. Blinkers back on Premardal should ensure that she leads and her best run was leading and blazing back at Ascot last November. Its hard to split New Image and All Friared Up but I'll put them in that order. Kid Choisir for third and don't be surprised to see Peach Tree run a race here, despite Staeck taking the sit on Gondorff.

No Bet.

Race 8:

Probably a race to grab your mate and buy him a beer. Moneghetti mixes his form badly and as a bookie, you just have to take him on, although he's probably due a good one! Big Attitude was hampered by the acrobatic Troy Turner on Barometric last start, but Kincaple would have beaten him by at least two lengths in any case. Blinkers back on and back to 1400m will suit him perfectly and he can win here. I never thought I'd say this, but the ear muffs have actually made all the difference to Numerous Secrets this campaign! He's a difficult ride but the Pontiff has mastered him and he's the big danger to Big Attitude. Come Party was an eye catcher last start, but be wary about taking the unders because everyone saw it. Double figures are definitely required there. The pace will come from wide here, Revy Jay, General Albert and even Numerous Secrets. Even more reason to steer clear of Moneghetti, drawn 1 and at the short quote. Big Attitude, Numerous Secrets and Come Party.

Suggested Bet: Big Attitude each way at the $4.40 available.