Belmont Preview 10th August

Greg Hooper | Metropolitan Racing | Wed 10 August, 2011

RACE 1 – ‘SUPER SATURDAY’ @ ASCOT ON 19 NOVEMBER HANDICAP

No. 7 SNUFF GRUFFLES. Tough little mares’ race to start the day as there looks to be numerous chances. I’m going for SNUFF GRUFFLES who was a dominant winner in a Kalgoorlie maiden at her recent outing, parking three and four wide for the duration but still powering clear late. This is obviously a big step up in grade but her previous effort in a similar event was good. Only concern is she might settle down last with a slow tempo but on raw talent alone she should beat most of these. LOVABRUCHILL has disappointed at her first couple of starts back from a spell but she has settled back in the field in races dominated by horses parking over the speed. I expect her to be ridden positively today and she should go close. Of the rest CONAKEY returns from a freshen up, she’s a hard mare to catch but can finish off hard. SNUGLET got the run of the race last week but won well, she’ll get the same run again from barrier 1.

Numbers 7, 4, 6, 5

Suggested Bet –  If odds allow Snuff Gruffles win save Lovabruchill.

 

RACE 2 – ozbet.com.au HANDICAP

No. 5 BEARCHAT. Not the easiest race to put the finger on the winner. BEARCHAT is ticking along nicely, he won well at Northam two starts back and then led and was rundown late at Pinjarra. He’ll roll forward again and I think will be hard to get over. MR VADIM is limited but he is ticking along nicely. He led but was just no match for Vermeer at his most recent outing. GET THE NET should be ready to put in a run, he was ridden midfield on the fence last start, I expect him to be sitting right over the speed in this. The winner should come from that trio.

Numbers 5, 1, 2, 4

Suggested Bet –  None recommended

 

RACE 3 – playeronline.com.au HANDICAP

 No. 2 THE OTHER HARV. This looks a pretty thin mares’ race and I’m fairly keen on the chances of THE OTHER HARV. She had no luck at all in the Belmont Classic, starting from an outside gate and parking wide in transit, from there she was never a chance. Previous to that she ran a real eye catcher in the Belmont Oaks, getting held up at crucial stages and rattling home for second. She is nearing the end of her campaign which is some concern but if she has one run left then she should handle these. SENTIMENTAL STAR is ticking over nicely. She had every chance last start but still ran a solid race. She looks the main danger. PRINCESS VIVIEN is going fairly, she was making gradual ground last week behind the stable mate, Snuglet. She should just be about ready now. DOUBLE SWIRL rolls over and either leads or races outside FLIRTY LADY, she has to be included on that basis. SUNNY CITY should be able to settle closer from barrier 1 and should be included in all multiples.

 Numbers 2, 3, 5, 1

Suggested Bet – The Other Harv win and save Sentimental Star

 

RACE 4 – racingjobs.com.au HANDICAP

No. 2 ORTESSA. The third mares’ race and we are only up to race 4. Unlike the other couple there appears to be plenty of chances in this. I’m going for ORTESSA on an each way basis. There doesn’t look to be a stack of speed in this and I think she can either lead or sit outside YAMUNOTRI and from there she’ll be hard to get over. Her last two couple of starts have been good, she was game behind Elle Choisit in Saturday class two starts back and last time she led and was hauled in late by Numerous Secrets, obviously that form line looks solid after Saturday. There are plenty of other chances though. UNDERCOVER LIZZY is flying and will appreciate the step up to 1200m, just a slight concern where she’ll end up in running from her wide gate. LACIE resumes from a spell and she was a good first up winner last campaign sitting on the fence and sprinting quickly, she’ll  get the same run again from barrier 2. ROYAL CULTURE and YAMUNOTRI both have claims as well. This looks a very even race.

Numbers  2, 7, 1, 5

Suggested Bet –  Ortessa each way

 

RACE 5 – WESTSPEED 3YO HANDICAP

No. 6 PALMDALE. This is a tough three-year-old race. I’m going for PALMDALE who has trialled very nicely on two occasions in anticipation for his return. His recent performance where he finished off strong behind the talented Nine Tenors was a particular eye catcher. He looks set for a big campaign and hopefully can kick it off the win. MOUNT MARION is a talented filly. Her debut was in a hot race and she finished behind a couple of smart ones, Benny’s Halo and My Bonny Lad. She was asked for nothing in her recent trial, clearly watch betting with her. MARADIEGO has the race experience but bit concerned where she’ll end up from her wide alley.

Numbers 6, 9, 4, 1

Suggested Bet – None recommended

 

RACE 6 – WESTSPEED STAYERS’ BONUS HANDICAP

No.  4 BRAVEET. This looks a raffle. BRAVEET has been placed once in twelve starts so you could hardly want to dive in but I think he’ll get his chance today. He found the line nicely in maiden company two starts back and he ran an even race in the Belmont Classic without ever threatening. From barrier 3 hopefully he’ll position close to the speed and keep whacking away. JOEHOUSEROCK is back up to a staying trip again, he has previously struggled to run it out strongly but this is a very weak race so he should beat the vast majority of them on ability alone. DEPORTMENT is the interesting runner, she’s been freshened up since the Belmont Oaks and been back to the trials. Her maiden win was super impressive. FLIPPEN FANTASTIC even has claims on his last performance.

Numbers 4, 3, 5, 11

Suggested Bet – None recommended

 

RACE 7 – CALL TAB TO BET 132 369

No. 6 REVISITED. A bit more form to work with here but still a tough race to find the winner. There should be at least an even tempo with WIZAWAY and THE MOON DAY who are both natural go forward types. REVISITED has won just the solitary race but is going well enough to win this. His efforts over 1400m were eye catchers and he almost got the job done when stepping up 2100m last start. With that run under his belt he should be cherry ripe. Plenty of other chances, Master Sin has a shocking strike rate but is going well for the new stable. FAIR HUNTER killed them at Pinjarra last start, he looks a progressive type and will race on the speed. Paul Harvey goes on JACKAROO and back to midweek company suits. There are other chances as well.

Numbers 6, 5, 10, 4

Suggested Bet – None recommended

 

RACE 8 – racingjobs.com.au HANDICAP

No. 6 WHALAH. Another tough race. Going a little wide with my top and tipping WHALAH on an each way basis. He’s had three runs back from a spell now and I think he should be ready to run a race. He’s up to the 1700m and I think he’ll go forward and give them something rundown. CHIEF OF WAR has run two solid race since resuming from a spell and the step up to 1700m should suit. POWER PLUS put in his best effort in the state to date at his last start, he should be thereabouts. TOP GALLANT is the interesting runner. He’s first up over 1700m but has previously showed plenty of talent. IHT’S ELUSIVE is a galloper on the rise, this is a step up but he definitely has claims.

Numbers 6, 1, 11, 3  

Suggested Bet – Whalah each way

 

RACE 9 – perthracing.com.au HANDICAP

No. 8 STRAWBERRY BEAU. With Dante’s Last engaged  there should be at least an even speed. By this stage of the day it should become obvious if the run on horses can play a part, if they can then STRAWBERRY BEAU should pack too many punches for these. He looks a very promising type, he has really finished off nicely at his two career starts. He was doing a few things wrong on in the straight at his recent outing which probably cost him the victory, hopefully the addition of winkers can straighten him up. DANTE’S LAST will lead and which he enjoys and give them something to rundown. He’s been caught in speed battles at his last two starts. THE WIDDER resumes from a spell and his trial was good. WESTRIVER KEVYDONN is very honest, he returns from a freshen up but will park on the speed and keep going. The blinkers and Paul Harvey go on DARE TO DOUBT, the barrier does make it tricky but if he can get some cover in running he should finish hard.

Numbers  8, 2, 1, 4

Suggested Bet – Strawberry Beau win.

 

RACE 10 – PERTH RACING NOW ON FACEBOOK HANDICAP

No. 13 MASCHINO. A really good finish to the day with plenty of gallopers in form. The speed looks very strong with KIM COIN and FIRST LOT both natural runners. Hopefully it will give the get back run on horses a chance as I’m pretty keen on the chances on MASCHINO. He’s a very smart type who I think will go through the grades, his first up win at Pinjarra was effortless and I think he is horse that will win plenty of races. With only 52.5kg on his back I can see him being hard to hold out in this. NEDIYMS RULER was excellent at Kalgoorlie. He was first up from a spell, settled back and made up plenty of late ground. From barrier 3 I think he’ll get a lovely run in transit. KIM COIN murdered them Pinjarra at his recent outing, leading from go to whoa. He could cop some pressure from FIRST LOT but if he repeats he can win. NOVEMBER RED is well placed back to midweek company, he’ll just need some luck from the draw. NAVARDA LAD got caught in the quicksand last week, drawn 5 he’ll get all the favours.  Top finish to the day.

Numbers  13, 3, 2, 9

Suggested Bet –  Maschino each way