Belmont Tips 27th August

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 27 August, 2011

Race 1:

It's a bit of a write off for me in the first today. Having assessed the two scratchings on top, I've been left to tip my third or fourth pick. Flag Officer will get the front here with either Ave The Snip or Pattie Me Lass (with blinkers added) to pull into the breeze. Pattie Me Lass has the class to blow these away, but up to the mile, blinkers added and with bar shoe on now, I think she's a risk of over racing and ruining her chances. Ave The Snip breezed and beat them last time, but meets them slightly worse off at the weights. Its not a race I can get excited about. Southern Drawl is the one that can knock them all out. My stab in the dark for a tip is Flag Officer from Ave The Snip and Pattie Me Lass.

Definitely a No Bet race.

Race 2:

While I think Command Centre is the best horse in this race, the 1000m might just be a bit short for him now. Nine Tenors won with a leg in the air in the midweeks and will start short here, but too short for me. The pressure will come from Background (blinkers on) and Identity Fraud, who will most likely opt for the sit third the fence. If Nine Tenors ends up in the breeze outside Background, she's a definite risk. Demimonde has some ability and was way over the odds at the $14 posted on Thursday. She's come in to about the right price now however. Public Perception was ordinary first up, but did have excuses if you go through the stewards report. I'd prefer to see her put in a good run before tipping her though and she's under the odds at $6. Identity Fraud was heavily backed first up, but they drop off quickly despite him badly quartering his heel. He's a $21 shot which is well over the odds. We'll tip Command Centre on class to beat Nine Tenors and Demimonde and hope that they go quick up front.

No Bet.

Race 3:

It's a race full of my "love to hate" horses. The Corporation, Ringmeister and Moneghetti. All have untold ability but I find them hard to catch. There is absolutely no pace here. Ringmeister has won or run second at every start he has sat in the first two. Last campaign the stable seemed hell bent on sitting him and he had a shocker. Hopefully sanity prevails today in this race with no speed. The only challenger on this front is Galoubay. Those two should race in the first two and fight out the finish. The Corporation tends to over race in any case, so up to 1400m with moderate pace, I cant have him. Moneghetti could be a similar story off a slow pace. Key Biscuit is the knockout here. His last few runs have been decent and the slow pace shouldn't worry him. Ringmeister from Galoubay and Key Biscuit.

Suggested Bet: Ringmeister each way if the bookies allow ($4 or better).

Race 4:

Werd just looks a good thing on paper here. Not one of these horses would hold their heads high in The Colonel Reeves, Summer Scorcher, Winterbottom etc. Having said that, he did have a setback after his two impressive trials. The odds on quote does look right, but too deep into odds on is a risk. Megem's Boy has the best 1000m record outside of Werd and the pace should suit. I can see him getting over Bike Aaromba for second. Vizard has lost his old spark and Spitfire Ace will not keep up at the 1000m. Classy Nugget should be in the paddock and is a 100/1 shot.

Suggested Bet: Werd at $1.80 or better.

Race 5:

Maschino may just be a freak.....but this race has many more chances than the market is going to suggest. Galinba Blast ran a fair race at 1400m first up for Jimmy Taylor. He's a horse with plenty of ability and he can come forward a long way in fitness from that run. Knight Fury, while first up and at a distance perhaps a little less than his pet, can also figure here at almost $20. Chester Road and Hi Kilmore, while good chances, have had everything in their favours at the last few runs. Prince Ted is another that has had no luck at his last few. Just how he can start under double figures at every run, then be sent out a $21 shot here, is beyond me. Hollister is a big hope at $12 and has form around the favourite and Maschino of course, his last run was phenomenal. WE have to tip him on top because if he gets clear running, he'll probably win. Second best Galinba Blast and Prince Ted at the big price for third.

Suggested Bet: Spec on Prince Ted at $21 and Galinba Blast at double figures.

Race 6:

I'm Here to Win and Rock Moves should ensure a better than even pace in the sixth. This will suit the favourite Like an Eagle, Our Larrikin, Wild Charger and even Gum Nut Guru. Unlike the last where I thought the fave would win, I'm going to knock Like an Eagle here. Barring William Pike, I think he might have been beaten at his last two runs. He's a horse that still does plenty wrong and there are a few handy ones in this. Wild Charger is the one I'm going to tip and close behind Our Larrkin. The former put in a few excellent runs last campaign, one in which he took a packet out of the bookies ring and beat Cavallo Pazzo with ease. Like an Eagle can go in for third as he is obviously a good horse.

Suggested Bet: Wild Charger each way.

Race 7:

This is a race with three very progressive stayers engaged. Offer Me Jewels was forced to take up the lead last start and although winning, I don't think he was suited. Defy Me's last run at Kalgoorlie was pretty impressive. He just looked out of his class in that grade and can easily step up here. Crispiano, the other of the Mark Reed runners, backs up from Thursday where he creamed them by 4 ½ lengths. Theve backed him from $15 to $9 and he toyed with them aswell. Cant really make a case for anything else here and the gang of Reed and Powell could even trifecta the race. Defy Me, Offer Me Jewels and Crispiano for me.

Suggested Bet: Watch the market, but Defy Me each way.

Race 8:

The last is a tough race. Searing Heights is the interesting runner from Melbourne. He's a front runnign stayer and could go forward here for Staeck. His trial was soft and the mile first up shouldn't bother him. If he's anywhere near his top, he'll beat these. Endless Time has Pike engaged and her last run behind Tricky Syd was good without too much luck. Hill off and Pike on is a massive plus. Great'n'Grey will be a knock here, up the the mile and backing up. The camp have had little luck with barriers. The Other HArv is probably the danger although Kim Coin, Mickey Drippin, Single Warrior and Sound Barrier all have claims. I cant see them walking here with Kim Coin and Chief of War going forward, Yabigorse might even surprise in his former pace making role.

Suggested Bet: Searing Heights at $5 or better, watch the market.

Footnote: Every year the Broome horses come back at the end of their nor west preparations. Every year we see them punch around at 50/1 and a few of them pop up. Remember that the dirt form is totally different to grass form. Go back to the form prior to that and re-assess their price. Some of them are worth a spec at big odds, including Yabigorse, Oscar Wildly and even Kooyong Road.