Belmont Tips 3rd September

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 3 September, 2011

Race 1:

A small field of stayers to start the day but thankfully some pace through the likes of Smart Twister, Rich Success and Attadale. I think Smart Twister will probably take it up with Attadale coming to the breeze. The race is set up again for Cohort and Grantham was at his best last start, getting him up in the last stride. He'll have to be every bit as good here as he only got over Risktaker by a neck last time and she'll get the pie run again for McCallum. She was a query at the trip for me last start but the pace wasn't that hot. It will be a bit more genuinely run here and I think Cohort can win again. Buccellati didn't impress me at his first up run or his trial. Doesn't' stretch out like a good stayer to my eye. Cohort from Risktaker and Attadale.

Suggested Bet: Cohort anywhere near $3 if the bookies are prepared to take him on.

Race 2:

This looks a skinny race on paper. Bontiara will start the short priced favourite and Kim Classic is the obvious danger after they battled it out last time on the 20th August. While Bontiara will probably get the same run on the fence, Kim Classic meets her 2kg better at the weights and she only just got there last time. If these two go forward, they'll be very hard to catch as there is very little evident pace. Motion Pictures went terrible last campaign and has changed back to the care of Graeme Hammarquist. Scenic Fair is well out of form, but has never had blinkers added, so they could just be the tonic for the 6yo mare. Conakey and Undercover Lizzy will get back and find it hard here. Kim Classic from Bontiara and Scenic Fair.

Suggested Bet: Kim Classic each way. The $4.80 is a very good price.

Race 3:

Amelia's Dancer will be all the rage here after he accounted for Trustee Brown last start but I'll be taking him on at the short price. Ma Shang meets him substantially better at the weights for being beaten a head a neck at their last outing. Ma Shang's Victorian form is easily good enough to account for this field, and we saw a glimpse of that last start with the blinkers added. Reflective Star has taken a long time to come to hand this preparation, but his last effort was much better. Staeck jumps off however to ride Tolka Rock for Mark Reed, who has done nothing since coming from over east. I cant have Tolka Rock but you always have to have a watch on the stable. Mickey Drippin and Single Warrior both went ok at the mile last start and Xaarphonic is the smokey . Stokehouse coming out chances the complexion of this race considerably as now there is no genuine speed. This should suit Amelia's Dancer and Ma Shang. Ma Shang from Amelia's Dancer and Reflective Star.

Suggested Bet: Ma Shang each way and a little spec on Xaarphonic at the big price ($16).

Race 4:

Like an Eagle will be the raging odds on favourite in race four and he probably deserves to be. He seems to step up a notch at each run and beat them easily last start. The variables that change this week are Pike off, Whiting on and the barrier will see him buried back on the fence. Will to Win was ordinary first up at the unsuitable 1000m, but I still expected better of him. Put a line through his trial, he didn't try an inch. He'll surely improve here. Hide The Loot was a good trial and he looked to have some ping back in his finish. First up for Justin Warwick, I give him a good chance despite his poor campaign last time in. Follow The Road was trapped wide first up and will also improve here for Brad Graham after a decent trial leading into his first up run. We'll risk Like An Eagle on the book, but he should probably win from Follow the Road and Hide The Loot.

Suggested Bet: small each way on Follow the Road ($17 available).

Race 5:

One of the better races of the day and a wide open affair. Rafferty is probably the testing material although I was slightly disappointed in his first up run. He should come a long way forward on that run and is the one to beat however. Osh Empire and Rock Moves should set a decent speed in this with Extra Beat and Give Me Moneyhoney getting good positions. Extra Beat has been missing the kick somewhat and would not want to do that here. Jappaloop was a decent trial and ran some handy races back in Summer last year. I think Recode is slightly suspect at the 1200m and the Pontiff rode him to perfection to win his last two. Grantham will need to be at his absolute best to win on Recode this week. Comme Ci will have her work cut out drawn wide with Diener, although I do like the horse. Osh Empire is the smokey but he is very hard to catch. Rafferty from Jappaloop and Osh Empire.

No Bet.

Race 6:

Offer Me Jewels got the staggers last week in the bookies ring but I think it will be a case of the opposite this week. Staeck got into some trouble turning for home last week and she powered home under the big weight to chase home McTango, who had skipped away at the top of the straight. This week, Mctango goes up 4.5kg and needs to do it with Ryan Hill in the saddle, as opposed to the leading apprentice. Offer Me Jewels definitely gets the best claiming apprentice going around and looks a standout to me in this. Get The Net looks as though it will stay, despite never having been over the trip. Dark Vision steps up in class and the riding change from O'Donnell and Pike to Diener is significant. Star Beau will probably stride forward and add to the pace that McTango will set as he over raced quite badly with Pike last start and Finger is the replacement. She won't be able to hold him I would suggest. One Cool Queen copped windburn from the top weight at their last meeting. Offer Me Jewels from McTango and Get the Net.

Suggested Bet: Offer Me Jewels each way at the $3.40 still available.

Race 7:

The Farnley is a moderate affair this year. King Kool Kat is the star of the field, at this trip in any case. Bridgestone will test him, even though I think the journey is unsuitable at this stage of his preparation. He and Blacksmith meet King Kool Kat six kilos better at the weights and can stretch his neck. The race, and possibly the result, hinges on how they lob in running. Wolfe Dreams made no attempt to lead in the Goodwood, but his first up record is ordinary in any case. I think he will try and boot up and lead here. Second up, he goes much better. King Kool Kat will most likely come to the breeze and Blacksmith will want to camp given his slight vulnerability at the end of these higher quality races. I cant make a case for anything else including Xaaravid, Big Ted and London. If Wolfe Dreams goes too hard, that will leave King Kool Kat vulnerable but if the pace is moderate, I'm tipping him to win it, albeit without confidence. Bridgestone is the one that can challenge if there is too much pressure up front, along with Blacksmith. We'll take punt with King Kool Kat, Bridgestone and Wolfe Dreams.

No Bet.

Race 8:

A good race to finish off in the last. The pace will come from Rebel Waltz and Happy Chante and not much outside of those two. Having said that, these two are enough to set it up for the remainder. Grand Approach was a massive run behind Like An Eagle at his second start this campaign. He over raced quite badly with the shades on and had to sit wide in order to get off heels. With blinkers off he could settle better in this, but I feel that a price in the two's is a huge over correction considering they sent him out a $14 shot second up. Couture Chik is the danger, winning well last start after sitting wide. If they go hard here, Copper Reign can improve and Silent Hero can reproduce the same run he did last time out, but he's a little hard to catch. Happy Chante goes well fresh and has changed yards to that of Robert Matthews. He's definitely worth a ticket each way at 50/1. Need Luck is also very hard to catch but with the right pace here, can run on into a hole at big odds. Grand Approach from Couture Chik and Happy Chante.

Suggested Bet: small each way on Happy Chante at 50/1.