Belmont Tips Saturday 10th September

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 10 September, 2011

Race 1:

Outside of the favourite Barakey, this would be a really good race. Barakey will just win but this will be the first time he is put under any pressure in the run with the "mad as a cut snake" Freetime engaged. The seven year old is very erratic and only knows one way....to run as fast as he can. Despite this, Barakey still has the overall times and sectionals to melt this field. McScar is the value at $21 and $5 for the place. He should just possie up behind the blistering speed and can fill the hole behind the hot pot. Megem's Boy was ordinary last start after a good run in the Beaufine, he'll improve here. Hide The Loot has lost his ping at the end of his races, so its hard to see him do it here over 1000m. Jay Jay Makster has disappointed and has bar shoes added. Freetime will test Barakey and looking at the facts and figures, was an enormous run last start, leading, hanging off and running 57.11 with a low 33 sectional. Problem is, he mixes his form. Barakey from McScar and Freetime.

Suggested Bet: Place bet McScar at the $5 available.

Race 2:

This is a pretty ordinary race really. I'm going to knock Dr Indy and Amici Nero here based on their first up efforts. Both will be much better suited by the mile and I could have egg on my face after this race, but I'll stick to that comment. Reign of Terror looks like he is crying out for the mile and Palmdale should be able to run on better than the rest. Don't like the bottom three at all. Dr Indy was a fair run first up, but I don't like The Social Network/ Charcoal Rose / Planet Claire formlines. Likewise Amici Nero. There's a query on the pace in this race with only Princess Dierdre to go forward. She should lead on her ear and turn this into a sprint. For that reason the $2.40 Reign of Terror is too short for me. He's clearly on top however from Palmdale and Dr Indy.

No Bet.

Race 3:

Rebel Fury stung a few bookies last campaign in winning four in a row. Despite the rise in weight and being first up, I like him here. There's not much pace and he should stride to the breeze or even the front. Galoubay has had his chances the last two and Wild Charger disappointed first up. He can definitely improve, as he did last campaign. Grand Platz doesn't win often enough and he was clearly outgunned at his last start. Fighting the Blues is eligible for much easier than this. The class is Rebel Fury from Wild Charger and Grand Platz to place, yet again!

Suggested Bet: Rebel Fury is out to $2.90 now. A good each way with 1/3 the odds for a place.

Race 4:

Again there is not much pace in the fourth. Gum Nut Guru will get the front pretty easily. He doesn't have the best acceleration, so a win for him is very dependent on the right ride. He'll need to step up the tempo early and get them chasing from the half way mark. He's a definite chance to upset here. The Corporation, Our Larrikin and Great'n'grey could all over race is Grantham stacks them up early. This will hinder all of their chances and I think they are all risks. Fortescue Flyer will box seat and does have the sprint to overcome the leader, as does Philby. Harvey rides this horse very well and can build his momentum despite the big weight and the fact that they might sprint from a moderate pace. Diener to Harvey is a massive plus. We'll tip with the weights in Fortescue Flyer, Gum Nut Guru and Philby.

No Bet.

Race 5:

Maschino has as good a finish as any horse I have seen in WA for some time. The positions he has managed to win from at his last two runs were astounding. If Michael Grantham takes no chances, brings him to the outside, he'll just win. The $2.50 that was bet early was madness, in fact, the even money is still well over the odds. Kim Coin can run a race in front here and will get an easy lead with the only possible pressure coming from Lovabruchill. Lunar Image was ridden positively at the midweeks and it came unstuck for them. The Elusive Quality gelding was backed off the boards and ran a huge race. I would suggest he is doing good things on the track, but he'd need to be pretty good to win this. Maschino from Lunar Image and Kim Coin.

Suggested Bet: Maschino, take the evens as I don't think we'll see it that often after today.

Race 6:

This is where they get a bit harder. A great race for the recently turned 3yo's. Rebel Call sat wide in the Karrakatta and was beaten less than a length. His trial was good enough to suggest he should be favourite here. Harvey just needs to get him a cushy enough run to counter the 58kg as there is some pretty handy opposition. Western Fever will push forward and could get trapped wide here. She got the gun run at most of her starts in the big races. Saxon Coast looks a nice type and won well leading twice last campaign. Demimonde breezed and won at big odds first up after being friendless in the ring...that could well be the case again and she looks like being a value bet. The dogs were barking about Modello at his first race start at Northam. He had every chance but apparently pulled up shin sore. Its hard to tell how he will go but the Akhedasset form was good and Pike goes on. Full Clip is the lay. Don't like him at all. Not sure what price Jacobyte would be in this but I couldn't see him with any chance? We'll spec with Modello from Rebel Call and Saxon Coast.

No Bet

Race 7:

Another staying race where I think Mark Reed has them covered with his two runners. Offer Me Jewels was the victim of a race not run to suit last start. Horses were sitting 3&4 wide in the apprentices race, allowing McTango to skip away at the top of the straight, taking a lead impossible to bridge. Having said that, she'll be back in traffic here again and goes around for the third successive week. Searing Heights form reads pretty well around Black and Bent, who is now a Melbourne Cup contender. His first up run was better than the 9th reads on paper. He's a big, front running stayer and will be much fitter for the first up run. Kawatiri is sacked after his dismal effort at Kalgoorlie last week, as is Ma Shang despite Harvey hopping on. Xaarphonic is the rough chance of an upset with a significant riding change in Noske for Black. Prefer to wait for Staeck to jump onto Dash Incredible before we get serious about him. Searing Heights from Offer Me Jewels and Xaarphonic.

Suggested Bet: Searing Heights at anywhere near $6 each way.

Race 8:

The last looks a tough race. I've had to come back to Prince Ted, who we tipped as a chance last start at the big odds. He may have to go back off a moderate to slow tempo here, which is the risk with him. A couple in this race have really disappointed of late namely Galinba Blast and Senhor Da Gama. I can't be coming into those two at the single digits on offer. Supernova was a good trial and probably shouldn't be a $41 shot. He did trial well before failing twice last campaign though. Highest Honour didn't have the best of luck behind Fortescue Flyer and with Pike back aboard, could give this a shake. Likewise Naku Penda for new trianer Justin Warwick, is no $61 shot. I couldn't tip him however. Lagobell goes ok fresh and Cougar town is racing well, but lack of pace might also bring him undone. If Bivemark rides Terminado positively, she's a chance here. Give me Moneyhoney is the big question mark. Theres no way she'll get the 1400m ridden aggressively by Dashing Dan, but what will he do?

Suggested Bet: Each Way Prince Ted at $5 and a small spec on Supernova at $41.