Belmont Tips 18th September

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sun 18 September, 2011

Its going to be a wet old day at Belmont, which is a shame after the day we had yesterday. I'm sure the entertainment on course will make up for a bit of that and despite an average card, we might get a decent crowd out there today.

Race 1:

Its a field that would even disappoint us for a Wednesday I'm afraid. Not too much to get excited about here. Master Sin and Top Gallant deserve to be near the top. Cook's Landing is the only pace in it and Foxatori was a good run at the mile and looks as though he will stay all day. Harvey goes aboard, and this is a significant move. We'll go Foxatori as a spec from Top Gallant and Master Sin but the pace and the track condition are a big query now.

No Bet.

Race 2:

This is probably the best race of the day. There are a few queries here, including exactly what Brown will do on Mendicity. They plunged this horse midweek and she ended up with the run of the race and could only manage third. One would think she has a bit of improvement though based on the weight of money. She might just fly over and try and lead. Youbetya led in his trial and may add some pressure up front, as well as O'Vaticano, who over raced when sitting behind Screaming Plum first up. Exclusive Honour looks a nice horse, running on well twice for a win and a second at his first two runs. Divine Hero is improving with each run and will also get a good run from the 4. I liked the trial of Allez Marseilles, who was tailed off before being beaten less than two lengths and Edwards also has an opinion of Eight Till Late, the Lonhro filly. Pike and Smith can't be ignored with Sweet Apparition either. Tough race, Exclusive Honour from Allez Marseilles and Background.

Suggested Bet: Small spec on Allez Marseilles.

Race 3:

On paper, Wild Charger just looks a certainty in this and he'll probably win if he can stay out of trouble. Classy Nugget may lead again here, but I couldnt even suggest a spec based on his current form. The wet track is the only thing he may appreciate. Our Larrikin will be a tough ride for Joe Azzopardi given his propensity to over race. Rosie Rocket is the variable here. She has plenty of ability but she may need to get up near the front and if she can kick away, can give Wild Charger something to chase. Mickey Drippin has had more than enough chances and Oroya Gold is "just going" at the moment. Found and Kept is the smokey for a place and usually goes well at the fresh end of his campaign. Cant tip around Wild Charger, he'll win from Rosie Rocket and Found and Kept.

Suggested Bet: Wild Charger at evens is probably good value.

Race 4:

A race where Bridgestone will be the raging short priced favourite. Based on the drop in class, he should be the favourite too. However his two runs this campaign have disappointed me. First up he peaked and ran fourth in moderate company, then last start he loomed and looked the winner on turning, only to peak again and be beaten by Mega Steel. He may well win, but I won't be taking the shorts about him. Gum Nut Guru and Attadale will provide the speed here and Aaron Rogers is more likely to run them along with the former. This will set it up for the likely swoopers, Cohort and Bridgestone. General Albert, although drawn well, is suspect at the mile. We'll give Bridgestone one more chance from Gum Nut Guru and Cohort (a query backto the mile for me).

No Bet

Race 5:

Here's a bunch of old sprinters if I've ever seen them? Some good pace here with Dashing Dan on Centrum, Dante's Diamond and Spitfire Ace. Centrum will probably get the front with Dante's Diamond on his otuside. This sets the race up nicely for horses like Speccio, Hide The Loot and Vizard. I'm a small knock on Speccio with the weight and with the tendency to over race first up and I'll lean Vizard and Hide The Loot, who can both be flashing home. Vizard gets Harvey back aboard and was four wide behind Werd and beaten only 4 lens. Hide The Loot, while not showing his usualy ping at the end of his races, is back to the more suitable 1200m here. Insurgency is the smokey. I prefer Megem's Boy at 1000m. Dante's Diamond is well weighted and a very consistent horse. If she can get some cover, she'll be hard to beat but if she sits outside Centrum, she'll be vulnerable. Hide The Loot, Vizard, Speccio

Suggested Bet: Vizard and Hide The Loot win only.

Race 6:

Its another moderate staying race, the two favourites with queries over their ability to run the journey at this stage. While Amici Nero looks a stayer, Lunar Image looks a miler at tops to me. Chester Road impressed stepping up 600m last time out and only narrowly beaten. One Cool Queen, while not a horse you would like to be caught backing, has been running on well in her races. Zuboyne and My Big Al also chances in this. I know they have big plans for Amici Nero and he'd want to be donkey licking this field if he were any chance at going over east, but I dont think he will. Chester Road, Amici Nero and One Cool Queen.

No Bet

Race 7:

This is a decent mile race and a lot will depend on the speed which will be put on by Kim Coin. Last start Forrest went a bit hard and the Theatre gelding just faded the last little bit. Knight Fury can get across to the breeze and be very very hard to beat here, provided he doesnt have to chase a blistering speed. Outside of that, there's not too much going forward apart from Friar's Touch. Moneghetti's chances also depend on pace. If they crawl, he'll suffer the same fate as last time out. He's also a little suspect at the mile for mine, so he's a lay as favourite. We backed Naku Penda at the huge price last week and he put the writing on the wall that Justin Warwick has improved him, as he has done with most of his recent acquisitions. Knight Fury, Kim Coin, Naku Penda

Suggested Bet: Knight Fury each way

Race 8:

Lee Rani should ensure a good pace in the eigth. She went hard in the midweeks and hung on over 1000m. She can get the 1200m, but now with the rain affected track, I'd suggest this might be run more like a 1400. Summer Swallow was back to some of her form that saw her win the SW Breeders Plate last year after a horrible run first up. She may also need some luck here from the wide gate. Valoura was just short of decent company last time she raced and Pike will give her the gun run in this. Verscene, Quite Bexaar and Spekkey all have claims if they go hard enough. Kenmarette and Cheri Cheval, although posessing a lot of ability, both disappointed too much first up for me to consider. Summer Swallow, Valoura, Spekkey.

No Bet

Race 9:

Another tough race to finish the day. Pace will come from Nediym's Ruler and Leica Jet, althoug the latter may be looking for a sit with blinkers off. I did like Cassidy Cowboy even though he had every chance behind Fortescue Flyer, who failed dismally last week. With the scratching now, it leaves the race open for Rafferty. Jappaloop had every chance to beat Rafferty and has to do it from 15 this week. Rafferty should have his measure again but will also have to do it from the back with questionable pace in this. Silent Hero, Silver Trader and Babieca Noire all have claims, expecially Silver Trader who has an excellent first up card. Rocking The Blues likes the wet and its a big riding change Diener to Chui. Can't have If You Do on his trial. Rafferty, Silver Trader and Rocking The Blues

Suggested Bet: Rafferty each way