Belmont tips 24th September

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 24 September, 2011

It's a very skinny program with small fields that will contain short priced favourites. A very dangerous day for bookies, but should be a good day on the punt.

Race 1:

This is probably the most open race of the day, even though there are only 7 starters. A few could go for the front here too, including  Saxon Coast, Demimonde, Absolute Cracker, Red Hot Sax and Nine Tenors. I think the remainder would be mad to allow Nine Tenors to stroll to the front in this so we'll bank on them riding competitively and holding her out. Shady Bet, whatever happens, will get a good run behind a decent pace and despite the weight, I have him on top. Red Hot Sax is the testing material after her run behing Single Spice in the Supremacy. Nine Tenors can go in for third, her run last time was terrible, but I'm sure Jimmy has rectified a few issues. Prefer to see Absolute Cracker. She won the very first two year old race of the season, which I don't think gives us much of an indication of her ability.

No Bet

Race 2:

This race has absolutely no pace. The only two that could possibly go forward are Big Ted and Philby. Just which way the end up, doesn't matter. Provided Philby settles ok, he has the sprint to overpower Big Ted, who is a little one paced. Those two should be fighting out the finish. Hide the Loot and Western Jewel also have good finishing sectionals, but the pace up front might just get them beaten here. Philby from Big Ted and HIde The Loot.

Suggested bet: Philby if you can get $2.50

Race 3:

Another decent race for a small field. Once again, very little pace but perhaps Rucksack will lead with blinkers added and Full Clip might get the breeze. Keystone Rose has impressed me in her last two runs. She was beaten by Nine Tenors sitting 3 and 4 wide, then overhauled the heavily backed Mendicity, who has come out and won on a Saturday since. She'll have to go back again but provided the get along at a decent clip, I think she'll win. Fort Courage looks like a big strong horse that might need a run under his belt. Private Business hasnt done much wrong, but did have every chance last start. Im a slight knock on Full Clip as the favourite due to the step up to 1300m.

Suggested bet: Keystone Rose each way

Race 4:

Chester Road will be all the rage here and he probably should be based on the way he won last time out. The start before surprised us all, stepping up 600m and going down narrowly. Offer Me Jewels sat wide throughout and battled away in that same race. Harvey will give her a better run from barrier 4. Sound Barrier was also an excellent run, flushed out a bit early behind Malaika, who had the run of the race and narrowly beat him. Classy Clan and Master Sin are massive prices and both can stay. Definitely worth putting them in your novelties. Chester Road, Sound Barrier, Offer Me Jewels.

Race 5:

Good pace in this 1000m dash. Celebration Girl, Dante's Oak, Donnyonetime and Return to Rio can all go forward. Its a bit hard to predict who will get to the front, but I think Return to Rio wont have the gate speed and will as a result possie up just behind the pace. While winning easily at all of his starts, he hasnt run time enough for me to be backing him at the short price here, although he looks the one to beat. New Time is the big danger. His trial was good and the formlines behind Caves Road really hold him in good stead here. It just depends on how much Return to Rio has had up his sleeve? Jappaloop will get back on the fence and I'm not a fan of him here. Celebration Girl needs to lead and speed, and if she does, she'll come unstuck. She went awful sitting last time out. We'll take a gamble on New Time, Return to Rio and Doctor Dash for the smokey.

Suggested Bet: New Time each way

Race 6:

Luckygray will be the shortie here and rightly so. His form around the top three year olds of last year, added to his easy trial win, are enough to win this. I'm not declaring him however. Ginsberg and Military Secret do have the capacity to upset. The way Ginsberg beat New Image last year at Ascot, throws him up as a definite threat here, particularly with the pace that Freetime will set. Military Secret has decent form in Sydney and the $11 bet was over the odds. Having said that, Luckygray is ver smart and we'll tip him on top from Ginsberg and Military Secret. Rebel Fury set a cracking pace last time out, and while I've forgiven him that run, I think he's only fourth best and may end up coming to the breeze once Freetime crosses.

No Bet

Race 7:

Rubitawny goes around the short priced favourite here. Her form has been outstanding in two runs and much like Return to Rio, we dont know how much she has up her sleeve. The horses she has beaten are not much good, but she has beaten them with ease. Senhor Da Gama sat wide and looked gone at the 300m mark, but was still able to win his last start. It was quite amazing really. The mile should suit him and he should get a head start on Rubitawny at the top of the straight. I'm going to tip him to upset Rubitawny with Supernova for third.$21 is a big price again and could have won if not momentarily held up last time out....at 50/1!! Doutable can go forward and give them something to chase.

Suggested Bet: Senhor Da Gama ew.

Race 8:

They're going to back Rafferty off the boards here. The early money suggests he'll start in the 2's. His last run, despite being held up, was pitiful. He wasn't going to finish anywhere near the money. I'm forgiving him that run as it was wet and he tried to weave through runners. Blinkers may also sharpen him up and we know how good he is on his day. The price is too short however. Galoubay is the big chance of an upset here. Harvey will go forward and ride positively. If he leads or sits in the breeze, Rafferty will have to be on his best behaviour to win. Infinite Star impressed at Kal at his last two. With no vigour at all from Ives, he almost won two in a row. Pintada Prince can figure too, but he'll no doubt go back from barrier 12. The Smokey is Iconoclast. You have to go back to his provincial form last year, but it was good enough to place in a race like this and he'll be in the first few in running. We'll tip Rafferty from Galoubay and Iconoclast.

Suggested bet: Galoubay each way at the odds.