Belmont Tips 2nd October

Matt Rigby | Sun 2 October, 2011

Race 1:

A funny little race to start the day with only six starters. Kasabian comes off a courageous effort in the Kalgoorlie Cup at his first attempt over a journey. He set a good clip in that race and all but set it up for the eventual winner Kincaple. This race is different however with no other pace at all. Kasabian should be able to get it easy early and sprint well from the turn. Peg's Pride is the danger, both of her last two runs have been good. Offer Me Jewels is just about at her mark now, but did over race last week and battled away well to the line. The improver is Dash Incredible. He really did labour under the weight last week but looked to be trying his guts out. He won't know himself this week with only 54kg on his back. Whether he can go for anyone other than Staeck remains to be seen. Kasabian, Peg's Pride, Dash Incredible.

Suggested bet: Kasabian at anywhere over $3 is value

Race 2:

A race where I thought I would just be marking Rebel Call the winner, until I watched the trials of the bottom weight. Rebel Call will be the short priced favourite, and deservedly so. He sat wide last time out, only to be overcome by Modello and he wasn't giving it away on the line either. The Karrakatta run was huge also, and he'll probably win. Shining Light has won three trials, at Lark Hill albeit. His last trial was the one that impressed me most, coming from back on the fence and swamping the leader late. This bloke has a ton of ability. He may even be good enough to beat Rebel Call without any race experience. One would think the 1000m might not be his go, so regardless of what happens today, follow him from here on. Almachino should not be a distant third as he's an animal with plenty of talent, but a long third best here! Pace will be abundant from Jacobyte, Lord Balthazar, Hazed Vision and Miselle Blitz. I think they'll chop each other up.

No Bet.

Race 3:

A good little race with varying formlines. Sonny Biscay should get the front with possible inferno being crossed then coming to the breeze. Ranger has had the two trials and was competitive in the best company last campaign, braining them at Pinjarra before stipping straight into the Peters Stakes. He's the one to beat here for sure. Wild Charger has done nothing wrong this campaign and while only winning by half a length last start, he was never in doubt and fish sat up when it was evident he was winning. Mio Fratello was in outstanding form last Autumn, but the way he seems to thrive in being ridden, won't be easy to do against this lot, or at this track. Too often also we see them come back and find it hard to recapture that form. Prefer to see him here. Fusakeo is an interesting runner for Adam. His form in Sydney this campaign was average but all on rain affected tracks. A watch on him as he's won a few good races. Veracious steps out against all ages for the first time. Looking back at the horses that beat him last campaign, none of them have gone on with it, including Black Felix, Charmoss, Big Josh, Playcidium Mint etc. I'm knocking him. Ranger from Wild Charger and Sonny Biscay, who could get an easy lead here.

Suggested Bet: Ranger each way.

Race 4:

A ton of pace in this 1000m dash with the likes of Centrum (Dashing Dan), The Entourage, Dante's Diamond and Barakey. Centrum will get the front again and if Dasher does the same as last week, will break them open. Barakey can then track the tearaway leader and be very hard to beat here. Barring that, Brown should possie to Centrum's outside. The Entourage usually needs a run to show his best, but then again, he's never had his pet distance first up. Expect him to jump first and be headed. Jay Jay Makster, Megem's Boy and On The Carpet will be suited by the frenetic pace. Dante's Diamond will need some luck to slot in from 9, but O'Donnell has a habit of achieving the un-achievable! I still think Barakey is a classy animal and his first run on rain affected ground, running low 57's with a low 33 sectional, wins just about any 1000m race in the state. He has been untested since then. Barakey from The Entourage and Jay Jay Makster.

No Bet.

Race 5:

A tough little race with very little pace. Rosie Rocket should find the front again and with fitness on her side, can give this race a real shake. Marco Chui had some success on Rocking The Blues going forward last time, and may try that tactic again. Best Feature looked an outstanding prospect last campaign after disappointing in the winter. Her last run in February, coming from a near impossible position at Ascot, signaled her in for a bright future. She can possie up from barrier 3 and is the one to beat. Summer Swallow was a good win last time out. She took a while to wind up however and I think the 1400m is probably more to her liking at this stage. Gum Nut Guru, back in distance, will be a little one paced when the sprint goes on. Best Feature from Rosie Rocket and Rocking The Blues (look for a wet track).

Suggested Bet: Best Feature each way

Race 6:

It's a shallow looking Birthday Stakes beyond Waratah's Secret, Shock Value and Tranquility. The former trialed and it was not what we expect of him. While not really tested, we don't expect horses like Ranger and Tranquility to be getting over him. Having said that, he's had two weeks to build his fitness and should be ready for this. Shock Value is the testing material, having won this race last year and meeting Waratah's 4.5kg better on weight terms. Tranquility has impressed me in two trials and while I think the other two have the wood on her at this journey, she is going well enough to figure. Xaaravid was an excellent trial and has a good second up card. Wouldn't expect he could win, but a place is possible at big odds. Vizard has returned to some of his own form. No closer than 3 wide last start and 4 wide behind Werd, he's down 6kg and can play a part here. Waratah's Secret from Shock Value and Vizard.

No Bet

Race 7:

With the scratching of Mr Moet, the obvious favourite, it leaves this race a wide open and average affair. Come Party and Haste will probably head up the market. The former is not a true stayer in my opinion and the latter finds it hard to win. What little pace there is will come from Get The Net with blinkers added and possibly Classy Clan. I'd like to see Dasher break them open in this race because the chasers are lacking in class, its a race he could win with tactics alone. Ascot Taxi has a chance to win this now and Zebook, who was plunged in the midweeks, but was disappointing, must be considered. Bad race, Haste, Classy Clan, Ascot Taxi.

Suggested Bet: not in this race!

Race 8:

They'll scamper in the last with the likes of Celebration Girl, Break Sea, Bull Durham, Donnyonetime and Lee Rani, all wanting to go forward. While one of these could lob just behind the pace and win, I still see it as a race for the swoopers. Recode, although ridden better by Harvey in my opinion, Our Moscato, Babeica Noire and Ultimate Fighter are the ones I think can win. Our Moscato was a better run last time behind Lee Rani but was scratched from last week and may have had a set back. Babeica Noire loves the 1000m and came from last when beating Fighting the Blues, then ran on behind an unsuitable speed to finish close up last time out. Ultimate Fighter goes best at the fresh end of his campaign. Second up last time he should have been awarded the race when going down narrowly to Cavallo Pazzo, and that form has remained strong. Babeica Noire, Ultimate Fighter, Recode.

Suggested Bet: Back Babeica Noire and Ultimate Fighter straight out.