Ascot Opening Day Tips - 15th October 2011

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 15 October, 2011

Race 1:

Its not much different to the staying race a few weeks back where Dash Incredible ran them along, setting it up for the back markers. This time however, you can guarantee O'Donnell will do no such thing. Dashing Dan may just do that on the other hand. The Moon Day is probably the natural leader with Dash Incredible to his outside. Offer Me Jewels and Peg's Pride will again be favoured by a stiff pace, as will Double Barrel, who is very one paced. Dash Incredible was a massive run under the circumstance last time out and as long as he is ridden less aggressively, can tip these out. Offer Me jewels for second and Peg's Pride, but she needs to be ridden cold and was flushed out a little early last time. Double Barrel is a very hard horse to ride. Grantham's timing will have to be perfect.

Suggested Bet: Dash Incredible each way.

Race 2:

A good bunch of three year olds. Full Clip has had the blinkers removed after Brown fired him out and he over raced at his last two. Barring that, he probably would have won last start. He may still even get the front here, which should suit him. He'll be very hard to run down. Dark Miss has run two good races, and probably wouldn't have won the moderate midweek race if not for Pike in the saddle. The 1400m looks to suit her perfectly. Voices of Spring could well have beaten her that day but for the barrier and having to overcome the leading rider. Exclusive Honour and Dash for Home both have claims in the Ron Sayers colours and Miss Safari was a good run first up behind the classy Keystone Rose. $17 is too long about the half sister to No Questions. Full Clip from Dark Miss and Exclusive Honour.

Suggested Bet: small each way on Miss Safari.

Race 3:

Carbery failed to get Knight Fury to settle at either of his last two starts, costing him dearly at the finish. The only way to ride this horse now is to let him stride forward and I believe Paddy will do this. Mr Moet hasn't started for almost a month, with Adam obviously picking and choosing the right race. He had a hit out over 1450m at the trials last week so we'll bank on that maintaining his fitness. First up was a huge run on the rain affected track, sitting four wide and overpowering them. Soonest may drive forward again and Knuckey is a big plus in the saddle. Jappaloop steps up 500m and I'd rather look on at this stage. It's pretty shallow behind the top two. Knights Fury from Mr Moet and Haste.

Suggested Bet: Knight Fury win.

Race 4:

Lisetta and Lee Rani will ensure a good pace here with the former leading and Lee Rani breezing, provided she gets away ok. Lee Rani doesn't have the best record with Finger aboard so prefer to watch her although she is a strong mare. I think Lee Rani and Lisetta will drive each other mad. Moonlight Bay will be the favourite here and she can run a race, but the price is too short at current quote. Best Feature was a horrible run first up, but I'm prepared to forgive her and go back to her form last campaign. She gets in with 52.5kg and Nielson is riding fairly well at the moment. Charmoss is the knockout for mine. She has raced well first up before and trialed well last week although Knuckey has stuck with Undercover Lizzy, who also has claims. The only concern with Charmoss is the two trials then a gap before trialing in October. One can only assume she has had some problems. Best Feature from Moonlight Bay and Charmoss.

Suggested Bet: Each way Best Feature on trust and a saver on Charmoss.

Race 5:

Return to Rio and Barakey look classes above here. They'll probably sit in that order and finish the other way around. While I think Return to Rio is a very special horse, Barakey is a freak. Brown only slapped him a couple of times last start and then sat up, running 56.33. Return to Rio would have to prove he could do that before I could back him. This is a perfect first up assignment for Mabel Grace, with blinkers on and tons of pace, but she can't possibly win....third is her best chance. Even Astar might need the run and I still have a query over the three year old form around Playcidium Mint and Black Felix, although the All Friared Up form has been franked. Barakey, Return to Rio and Mabel Grace

No Bet.

Race 6:

In my last preview I declared Shining Knight would probably not get beaten again after that day. He won that day after sitting wide and reeling off 32.72 for the final 600m. Im going to stick by that statement, even though he meets Almachino 4.5kg worse at the weights and that horse should have finished along side him, if not for bad luck in the straight. Im banking on further improvement from Shining Knight, particularly at the 1200m. King Saul was impressive first up also last campaign and trialed well enough this time. Shady Bet has slipped out to good odds and was only beaten narrowly by King Saul that day. Keystone Rose and Single Spice also have claims, but I didn't like the latter's trial at all. Shining Knight from Almachino and King Saul.

No Bet

Race 7:

A race with good pace via Pin Rouge, Taxtime, Solsay and even McScar if it jumps well enough. Pin Rouge has a good first up card but has to lump the 59kg with some other top end pressure. Having said that, the faster it goes, the better it is suited, so will be hard to beat in this. Ultimate Fighter had his chance first up but still must be a chance in this along with Corporate Pro. Top end speed will also suit Gannochy, Reale Fury and Babeica Noire. Its a wide open race with Naku Penda the smokey, back to a suitable distance and with Justin Warwich firing. Pin Rouge, McScar and Ultimate Fighter.

No Bet but go wide in your quaddie.

Race 8:

See Northerly Stakes Preview

Tips: Waratah's Secret from Ranger and Megatic (add Tarzi and West River Charley to novelties)

Suggested Bet: small spec on Tarzi at the big odds.

Race 9:

Rosie Rocket will probably lead this if she wants to with little other pace. If Gum Nut Guru is ridden aggressively from the barrier, he can end up outside her and the $31 on offer is well over the odds. Knightlike races a little one paced for me and if the tempo is not there, hes a big risk. Blinkers come off Luckygray and over racing probably cost him winning more comfortably last start. The price now is well under the odds. Tranquility ran a good race in much better company two weeks back. She cops a bit of weight, but she has the class on this lot along with The Tenby Friar, who can race forward and be very hard to beat. Both are well over the odds and will start shorter. Chanify is the one that can knock them all out. He needs to improve again, but has overcome a couple of good horses to win his last two. Mystic Hour, another of Bob Peter's handy stayers, is also not without claims. Luckygray will box seat and obviously be the one to beat. Im tipping The Tenby Friar from Tranquility (hard to split them) and Chanify. Throw in Gum Nut Guru and Mystic Hour as roughies in your novelties.

Suggested Bet: The Tenby Friar and Tranquilty straight out. Both are over $6.