Hoops Tips for Melbourne Cup Day

Greg Hooper | Metropolitan Racing | Tue 1 November, 2011

RACE 1 -ozbet.com.au HANDICAP 2200m

No. 1 MR MOET. It's always a risk getting involved in a staying race when there is a potential tearaway leader in the event and we are likely to have that here with THE MOON DAY. Still, on form I think MR MOET looks very hard to beat. All his runs this preparation have been good and he is screaming out for the 2200m. If the leaders caves in early enough he should win. Including THE MOON DAY in my numbers, he had been going by nicely up to his last start and we all know he only just got caught on the post after looking all over the winner. PIPPALINE and LONG TAN LADY have provincial form but both are going well. Not sure what to do with MY BIG AL he's a hard horse to catch but does have ability.
Numbers 1, 2, 7, 3

Suggested Bet - Mr Moet win

RACE 2 - LIQUOR BARONS HANDICAP 1200m

No. 7 DEMOCRATISM. This is a tough race, with plenty of chances. I'm going for DEMOCRATISM to make it back to back wins. She only won by a relatively small margin at Northam but she was never going to lose. She'll go forward and is the one to rundown again. I think SWING could be the best value. She was very good first up when she settled off the speed and finished nicely. She then had little luck getting held up for most of the straight. With clear galloping room I think she can finish strongly and be in the mix. FOXY COMMANDER has heavily backed on debut but she was left flat footed at the top of the straight but finished off OK. Her recent trial was pretty good and if there is money for her it should be respected. SMART AS A FOX showed a good turn of foot when he won first up but he didn't go around a horse, it will be harder from a wide draw. INDEPENDENT MAK and SETTLE STRADA have claims as well. Not sure what to do with BIG CLINT. There are massive wraps on him and he has looked good in the trials but has done nothing on race day.
Numbers 7, 6, 8, 1

Suggested Bet - None recommended

RACE 3 - YELLOWGLEN VINTAGE BELLA HANDICAP 1500m

No. 5 ALLEZ MARSEILLES. There looks to be a few even races on this card and this is certainly one of them. With the French set to dominate at Flemington maybe some of that can brush off with filly and she can add some French flavour to the Ascot program. Omens aside, she was very good at her most recent outing. Settling a mile off the speed and really attacking the line late. That was off a fairly mediocre win at Toodyay but horses can improve sharply from sluggish efforts at that track due to its configuration. She will get a mile back though which is always a concern but if she can travel into the race with some cover then I think she will be hard to hold out. You can put a line through the last start effort of COMTESSE LA GRAN, she never saw any daylight and she had little luck first up either. William Pike goes on and with the right run she will be in the finish. IRMA LA DANE just couldn't deliver the knockout blow at her recent outing after travelling in a nice spot throughout. She's going well enough to win this race. BELLAY had little luck in her last start when she was held up when going for a rails run. She could be over the odds. CAIGUNA resumes from a spell, she was finishing off her races nicely in her first preparation. SWEET APPARITION made mince meat of her rivals at Northam and had little luck on Saturday, parking wide and meeting interference. She has claims if she backs up. This is a very tough race.
Numbers 5, 13, 2, 8

Suggested Bet - None recommended

RACE 4 - SEACORPORATION HANDICAP 1400m

No. 8 MAVROMATA. There are plenty of chances in this mares' race. I'm going for MAVROMATA who was desperately unlucky at her last start, getting held up for most of the straight. The key to her chances is jumping well and taking a forward position as she did miss the kick last time out. DESIRE PATH was super impressive at Northam, parking just off midfield and blowing her rivals away in a few strides. If she repeats she goes very close. FOREVER SPECIAL was solid first up when she went up on the fence. I think drawing wide suits as she will be able to wind up into the race. LIKE WILDFIRE is ticking over nicely. She was allowed to slide forward three & four wide from the 700m at her recent outing and she stuck on well enough. AHOY CALYPSO was well ridden first up, getting the gun run just behind the speed but he responded nicely in the straight when challenged.
Numbers 8, 4, 5, 1

Suggested Bet- None recommended

RACE 5 - YELLOWGLEN SPRITZ HANDICAP 1200m

No. 2 YSMAEL. We have been saying it for a while but this does look YSMAEL'S race. He was outstanding fresh peeling off a brilliant sectional to push the speedball Lisetta to a ½ length over a 1000m. Then the less said about his last start the better, clearly he should have won, it was horrific viewing if you were aboard. There looks to be some tempo in this race with MASTER TENBY and RUNNERDAL both capable of scooting along up front. If the field opens up a bit Michael Grantham should be able to keep him off the fence in clear galloping room and from there he should win. Hard to really see who will be the main dangers. CATTALINI was solid first up but the form out of the race will be questionable as it was a blanket finish. RUNNERDAL got the job done at Pinjarra, a repeat sees him a good place chance. DANGEROUSLY showed enough in first preparation to suggest he has ability and will win some races.
Numbers 2, 1, 7, 4

Suggested Bet - See race 6 suggested bets.

RACE 6 - YELLOWGLEN VINTAGE PERLE HANDICAP 1200m

No. 1 LISETTA. Happy to narrow the first leg of the quaddie down to two main chances, they being LISETTA and PRECIOUS SNIPPETS. I much prefer to back over LISETTA over 1000m but if she reproduces her last start effort then she should be too quick for these. I thought she was excellent giving a good kick just failing to see it out late. This is a big class drop and with the claim for Ryan Hill she looks very well weighted. Clear second pick for me and a genuine danger is PRECIOUS SNIPPETS. I thought she was excellent at Bunbury parking just behind the speed but exploding in the straight to come clear for an emphatic victory. If she is within striking distance when they straighten she has serious winning claims. Next best BITTER EMU who finished like a train in her recent win. She will find this much more difficult though as she will be giving these leaders a huge head start. RESETGOLD was good on debut and I think she can work her way into the numbers.
Numbers 1, 5, 6, 8

Suggested Bet - All up win Ysmael into Lisetta, if Ysmael wins then use Precious Snippets as a save.

RACE 7 - playeronline.com.au HANDICAP 1800m

No. 4 DANCIN ON THE WIND. Good quality mid-week middle distance event. I'm happy to be on DANCIN ON THE WIND, I think he looks very close to a win. He had little luck in the race won by Rafferty and last start he drew the outside gate, was restrained to last, veered out wide approaching the straight but he finished off very nicely, particularly his final 100m. The key factor is he has drawn a gate which should ensure he gets a sweet run and can settle much closer. If he gets the breaks I think he might be too good for these. BIG JOSH has strong winning claims, he pushed Devilish Intent all the way up the straight last start after making an early move (which was a smart move as they were walking upfront). He's rarely wins but he rarely runs a bad race. If they go quickly up front don't be surprised to see MYSTIC HOUR finish all over these. He's a horse I had penned as a very promising stayer after his win on Perth Cup Day last year. He might need another run but he has a touch of class. ATHENA'S ME MUM is very honest and will again find the line. SUPER HAWK put in a good effort first up behind Rosie's Rocket, hitting the line nicely late. JACKSON ROCKS was given all the favours last week but got the job done.
Numbers 4, 3, 1, 7

Suggested Bet - Dancin On The Wind each way

RACE 8 - $125,000 GROUP III COLONEL REEVES STAKES 1100m

No. 3 SHOCK VALUE. A really good edition of the Colonel Reeves Stakes and the winner doesn't look easy to find. SHOCK VALUE is tough, honest sprinter who just never runs a bad race. He was a good first up winner in the Birthday Stakes when he settled outside Waratah's Secret and with the big weight pull was just a little too good. There should be much more speed in this race and he should be able to take a sit just behind it. He probably lacks a killer knockout blow at the top level but he's always around the mark and if you can get around each way odds you should be collecting. MORANT raced a bit flat last time but he wasn't suited under the weight scale and was second up. I'd prefer to see him draw wide, sit back and flood home but from barrier 1 he'll have to box seat and hope that WERD shifts off the fence. WERD is much more suited back to handicap conditions and back to 1100m. As we know he'll burn forward and will give them all something to catch. Not sure what to do with ALL FRIARED UP. She is a gun mare but it has been well documented she has had a problem and will wear a bar plate. At her best she'd be hard to beat.
Numbers 3, 9, 6, 7

Suggested Bet - Shock Value each way if odds permit

RACE 9 - STEEL BLUE BOOTS HANDICAP 1400m

No. 4 NEW TIME. We finish the day with a big field but there does appear to be limited winning chances. I was off the NEW TIME bandwagon last start and predictably he saluted, at what must be said was a generous quote. He was far from impressive but he never really looked like getting beaten. Provided he jumps well again, he'll go forward and takes a spot in the first couple and from there he should be able to handle this moderate line up. Clear second pick is SUSHI WARRIOR and he does have good winning claims. If they are swooping through the day then he almost becomes my on top pick. It was hard to miss his first up effort when he settled a long way off the speed and finished powerfully to run a close up third to Babieca Noire. It was real eye catching effort. Of the rest DON'T SAY BOO must be some chance again. KABAM BOY raced flat at his recent outing but is a better horse than that and CARLTON STREET is almost impossible to find but should finish thereabouts.
Numbers - 4, 10, 3, 9

Suggested Bet - New Time win and Sushi Warrior save