Winterbottom Preview

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Thu 17 November, 2011

Its a Winterbottom that probably doesnt have the class of previous years but if we ignore the Group 1 tag and the prizemoney of $500k, its still a great race.

Ortensia was a good "late get" for Perth Racing after Black Caviar was unable to come. Rarefied, the other visitor, is a progressive type who had a long lay off before beginning this campaign. The first up run at Randwick was fair, then Snowden threw him in the deep end in the Group 2 Salinger during the carnival, where he was beaten only narrowly by Sister Madly. The combinations of both Messara / Williams and Snowden / McEvoy are going to be incredibly hard to beat in this race with two very well credentialed raiders. Add to that Ego's Dare, who will finish his days in WA, and the speedy Elusive Touch, both formerly from the east, and it makes for an interesting race.

Werd will take the top here, by virtue of his blistering gate speed and his relative inability to drop the bit in his races. Elusive Touch is also a speedy beginner and will no doubt work across into the breeze. I doubt he will add any more pressure to the leader than Werd will be creating for himself. There will be a cracking pace regardless. This will play into the hands of the likes of Ortensia, Rarefied, Grand Nirvana, Morant, Kid Choisir and Avante.

Ortensia is hardest to beat. She beat them with ease up the straight at Flemington first up and had the race shot to pieces 200m out. The two marble is a slight concern, but Craig Williams is a genius and more than makes up for the possibility of being three back the fence. Rarefied has drawn perfectly and should possie up midfield, one off the fence. If Ortensia strikes trouble, he'll be the one to beat. Best of the locals is Grand Nirvana. While he looked uncomfortable in the slippery conditions in the Lee Steere, he still battled away to finish second, even though Ranger made him look second rate. His record at 1200m in WFA events is outstanding.

Morant has claims and probably should have won the Colonel Reeves with any luck, but his previous start at WFA was poor and that must be a concern. Elliotto will box seat, but not sure he will sprint as well as the others already mentioned. Kid Choisir will need some Pontiff magic from 13, but as we saw last week, the Pointiff is well and truly capable of delivering that.

I cant really make a case for Werd the way he is racing. There's no such thing as an easy lead for this fiery gelding, so with that in mind, the 1200m and the WFA will see him out. Avante has outside claims. She was flattered in the Colonel Reeves with the up front speed and the fact others were unlucky.

Ortensia, Rarefied and Grand Nirvana.

Suggested bet: Rarefied each way is a great bet.