Ascot Tips 26th November - Placid Ark Stakes Day

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 26 November, 2011

It was always going to be a comedown from Super Saturday last weekend but the program today is probably a little worse than most thought. Thankfully there are a few classy runners in Night War, Miss Tipsy Topsy and even Whipsaw going around to maintain our interest.

Race 1:

A new bunch of two year olds go around in the first and its hard to go past the trial of Keep Fath who beat them by five with very little effort. Avuncular was a good debut run behing Tempestuous Strike, but will have to contend with a wide barrier. Time To Release also trialed well after a fair debut effort behing Fuddle Dee Duddle. Harvey goes onto Luke's Luck after it was trialed by O'Donnell, who has in turn chosen to ride War of Angels for Darren McAuliffe and Oz Racing. Interesting race. Keep Fath, Time To Release and Garance with very little idea.

No Bet

Race 2:

It looks like a race in two on paper, Metal Talk vs The Tenby Friar. Both have been racing well without winning. Metal Talk has had a tendency to over race quite badly in his races and Harvey goes aboard here, no doubt with the aim of getting this horse to settle. The Tenby Friar has been beaten by three pretty handy horses at his last few and I hate to say it, but today is his day! Cobble Lane should either get the front or the breeze here and provided Whiting allows him to run, he's a chance to upset. King Point carries no weight but is probably a class below these and a place chance. Even Astar and Mio Fratello are going terribly while I dont think Ultimate Fighter is suited at 1400m. The Tenby Friar, Metal Talk, Cobble Lane.

Suggested Bet: The Tenby Friar each way.

Race 3:

The return of Whipsaw who won his maiden, then the Bunbury Cup in his last campaign. He changes stables from Mark Reed to Dean White and had a very soft tribal. He could be a very good horse but a question mark over the obvious injuries he has had and first up at the mile. Ringmeister should lead them easily in this, provided he doesnt find a way to self destruct, as he so often does. The last time Pike rode him, it was a forgettable performance. He's the obvious one to beat with a little question mark over the big space between runs. Our Ol' Fella, Almohad and Sentenza all have hopes of an upset, albeit outside hopes. Oscar Wildly is my roughie in this. The have bet $51 and his last run behind Pin Rouge and Solsay in a moderately run race was good. Ringmeister, Almohad, Oscar Wildly but I wouldnt be taking anywhere near even money Ringmesiter, prefer to watch.

Suggested Bet: Small each way on Oscar Wildly at $31 or better.

Race 4:

Night War was impressive at her return as a three year old. It might be me, but on straightening, I always wonder how she can keep going, due to her size. She's a little rocket however and barring a shaking up by Hill last start, she did it untouched. I feel that when the whip is pulled on this filly, she finds another gear. Flying Affair is the danger with the Pontiff back on board, but he'll have to make the decision whether to sit outside Night War, or try and slot in from barrier 8. Either way, I dont think she's good enough to win. I like her blazing away out in front, and I dont think theres much chance of that here. Venetian Prince has been unlucky and clear next best for me. Gracetown had his chance last start.

Night War, Flying Affair, Venetian Prince.

Suggested Bet: Night War at anywhere near evens.

Race 5:

Miss Tipsy Topsy will be all the rage here after her impressive win second up. Its well documented that the longer it gets, the better she gets. Come Flirt With Me has the midweek form and a nice drop in weight. No doubt there will be support for him today to beat the mare. Veracious sat wide and battled away well behind Miss Tipsy Topsy last start. Jarrad Noske goes on and is more likely to let this gelding stride along. He's a real hope if he goes to the front or the breeze. Volcanic Causeway pulled so hard last start, he may have even choked down. The run was too bad to be true. Grantham might lead in this and he's good value if you can get somewhere near $17. Zilvain a sneaky place chance after a good run last time out. Miss Tipsy Topsy, Come Flirt With Me, Volcanic Causeway.

Suggested bet: Miss Tipsy Topsy at anywhere near $2.40, save on Volcanic Causeway, would need around $17.

Race 6:

A wide open race where Final Cut will start the favourite after going out a $41 chance last start. The race was run to suit that day and he goes up to 58kg. Pure Heaven pulled up with cardiac arrythmia in the Champion Fillies and has trialed since. She, You Want Suma Dis, Pegatrick and Roman Knows all represent the pace here. Hartley's Hangover was given no hope in that slowly run race behind Keepers Court, before facing the breeze in fast time on Super Saturday. Pike goes back on, with some pace in the race, he should drop out and be running on well, more like his maiden win. Arete should do the same and be running on strongly at the end. Roman Knows breezed and prevailed at Northam. If he can box seat here, he can fill the minors. Hartley's Hangover, Arete, Roman Knows.

Suggested Bet: Hartley's Hangover at anywhere near $8 is value.

Race 7:

A good staying race with a bit of pace from the likes of Senhor Da Gama, Its Judgement Day and Bobby Benzine. Having said that, the latter two are stable mates and you couldnt see them taking each other on. Dancin on the Wind will be the short priced favourite here and although he hasnt been over the journey, gives the impressing he should handle it. Mystic Hour has done well at 2000m+ and his win at Pinjarra was good although narrow. Knight Fury has a tendency to over race badly and the step up in distance wont really help that trait. He is looking more dour every time me steps out however and the pace in this might suit him nicely. Senhor Da Gama a one batter and always a chance in these races. Carbery should have a good handle on how to ride him now. Knockout chances down the page are Aitchison, who breezed in fast time and went down 1/2 len to Mystic Hour, and Super Hawk out of the same race. The former will be $15 with Mystic Hour $5, a big discrepancey for half a length margin. Having said that, Ill stick with Mystic Hour, Dancin on the Wind and Knight Fury.

No Bet

Race 8:

The last would be a great race if there were any pace at all. Without any genuine speed, it makes it a risky betting race. Rose of May won two races in the winter by going forward. Whilst being with a new trainer now, if they have done their homework, they will go with that strategy. Nothing else really appears to have a tendency to lead. Carlton Street can go forward, but has been running well from back in the field. Romp To Fame is the obvious choice and the best horse in this race. He was unlucky to go down to Nomad last start and before that, won impressively over the Regulator. He'll be the on top pick but a muddling pace may spoil it for him. Chanify is a chance if he possie's up from the one barrier, as is Grand Approach who was a good run last start. Sky Magic will have to go back and wont be suited by no pace again, much like her last run. New time has slipped out to a silly price, even though he has been disappointing. Forever Special, like Sky Magic, will need some pace to be doing her best. Zannanza the smokey at big odds. Romp To Fame, Chanify, Forever Special.

No Bet