Tips for Christmas Eve

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 24 December, 2011

Its a short, abbreviated day with an early start. I dont think we'll have too many starters for the two year old race and that may even knock onto the three year olds in race two which also starts before midday.

Race 1:

El Rijes was impressive enough for me first up and O'Donnell produced a bit of genius that day from barrier 9 and he can do it again here from 12. Rue De Marengo trialed well, as did Antoccino. Keep Fath has disappointed at two runs but can improve.

No Bet

Race 2:

Paratonnerre is certainly short for a horse that started the rank outsider first up. She beat Riobresa in slow time after the latter sat wide. Simon Miller can keep them improving, but she'd want to be doing that here. Stacks On was impressive first up and should get another good run here while Geiger Rio had no luck and is the knockout chance. I thought the Oratorio gelding might be a bit longer than $5, but that may still eventuate on the day. Stacks On is a bit of value at present at $4.20. Stacks On, Geiger Rio and Paratonnerre.

Suggested bet: Stacks On each way

Race 3:

Akhedasset should lead in this with Black Uma to his outside. Venetian Prince will get his chance to win one, back in class after decent runs in the Lee Steere and Placid Ark. I do like The Weapon however with Pike sticking to this More Than Ready gelding after only one run at the unsuitable 1000m. First up at 1400m is a slight concern, but Adam knows how to get them fit. He looks a nice horse. The Weapon, Venetian Prince, Akhedasset.

Suggested Bet: The Weapon at $3 or better

Race 4:

Dancin on the Wind will be short here and rightly so. His run first up at the distance, he was set a task, taking off early and doing too much work. It told in the end. Ridden patiently last time out, he smashed them and looked impressive in the run to the line. With pace from Amberlyn and Smart Twister, he's the one to beat. Western Jewel has been running fair races in better company. She is right up to this class, but does have to give them a substantial amount of weight. Amberlyn is the knockout hope if Azzopardi lets her run along and turns it into a real staying test. Even so, she may not have the class to win, but could give them a scare at good odds. Dancin on the Wind, Western Jewel, Amberlyn.

No Bet

Race 5:

Ringmeister is the best horse in this race but he's not one of my favourites. I was tempted to knock him last time out and he nearly proved that a good decision, turning it up late and falling in. He's averaging a run a month this campaign and that is a bit of a worry for me, especially at 1800m with 60kg. Harvey does ride him best though. King Point is the chance to knock him off, leading and just coming up short in the Country Challenge final. I dont think he'll lead here though, that should be left up to Rose of May or Volcanic Causeway. Harvey will opt to sit Ringmeister with the weight. Saratime is always a chance in this company and was a fair run first up. King Point, Ringmeister, Saratime.

Suggested Bet: spec on Saratime at $26 each way.

Race 6:

Never thought we'd see the day that Goose was the short priced favourite on a Saturday. After doing the form, I can now see why. He will get the lead and if ridden correctly (which Hanson is likely to do), can out-whack them in this. Super Hawk is the obvious danger and was running good races before completely outclassed behing Dancin on the Wind. Zilvain is the only other chance in my book but hasnt won in a long time. Goose (but you wouldnt take the odds on offer), Super Hawk and Zilvain.

Suggested Bet: Super Hawk each way.

Race 7:

A tough little race. Resetgold comes from the midweeks just three days back. He won that softly enough, but Im not sure how much juice he had in the tank that day, and backing up is a huge risk here. Away Ye Go ran well first up at big odds. She's only small, which probably puts people off but she's got plenty of fight. Again she'll be over the odds in this, but a slight concern with a bar shoe going on. Elle Choisit will improve for Harvey. She was terrible behing Premardal however. Even Astar should lead easily and didnt get the mile last week. Neville may have given her the Playing god, God Has SPoken treatment, so beware! Double figures is too long, back to the 1400m. Talent Show has run two excellent races this time in. She needs some luck but has a substantial drop in weight. Cant split Away Ye Go, El Choisit, Even Astar and Talent Show. Maybe box them in a trifecta.

Suggested Bet: the four i like are all double figures, take your pick! Ill be sticking with Away Ye Go.

Race 8:

Its a wide open race to finish off here. I do like Adam Durrant's Big Attitude. His trial was excellent and Adam gave him a real test in his first campaign, up to 1700m and back to 1400m to finish off. He beat Rafferty in his maiden, who we know has gone onto better things. His last run was also against horses that have gone on with it (Moneghetti, GreatnGrey, Dancin on the Wind). Solsay was pretty ordinary last week and will get the front again. He can improve. French President and Military Secret have both put in two good runs in succession. Andraczke has been plunged prepost from $17 to $7. He's under the odds now. We'll spec on Big Attitude first up from Military Secret and French President.

Suggested Bet: Big Attitude each way.

Merry Christmas to everyone who has taken an interest in the forum this year! See you New Years Eve!