Tips for Perth Cup Day 2011

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 31 December, 2011

Race 1:

Elusive Quality should just win this race but the $1.40 is well under the odds, as it was also last time out. Wicked Game is the value at $5.50 but he will have to come from behind and inside the favourite and will need some luck. Rio Spark with blinkers and Charcoal Rose chances to improve here. Elusive Quality, Wicked Game, Rio Spark.

No Bet.

Race 2:

Smart Twister plays a big part here, sweating on a run in the Cup, he's the only pace outside of Big Josh. Put a line throught the run of Dancin on the Wind last week, if Smart Twister is there to put the pace on, DOTW will be hard to beat. Malaika is the chance to upset here, down in class and has been running fair races in top company. Ambers Kingdom was $151 last time out but the bookies will expect us to take $6 today.....pass! Dancin on the Wind, Malaika, Smart Twister.

No Bet.

Race 3:

An excellent three year old race where I'll be going to the up and comers over the proven form. Riobresa has the huge riding change of Forrest to Harvey. He meets Scorn Saxon worse at the weights but Harvey adds more than the 1.5kg difference. Having said that, Scorn Saxon was most impressive at the midweeks and prior to that was close up behind Elusive Image. Maybe see how the first race pans out. Benny's Halo was one of our best two year olds, but has had 8 months off the scene with Diener aboard. Ill be laying him today. Scorn Saxon, marginally in front of Riobresa and Benny's Halo.

Suggested Bet: Riobresa each way at the $4.400 available.

Race 4:

The Watkins Hitchcock combination have a stong hand in this race via Kerrific, Delta Bay and the newly acquired Mighty Rossa. The former has excellent first and second up form and is the one to beat. Delta Bay trialed well enough and had a failed campaign (2 runs only) last time and must have had problems. His form in the previous campaign sees him right in this race. Sweet Serenity was a poor run behind Rosie Rocket, but most of them looked ordinary that day. She will go close in this provided enough pace is clapped on. Fleming Son also a chance after improving for Ivan Haggerty. Kerrific, Delta Bay, Sweet Serenity.

Suggested Bet: take the $21 each way Delta Bay from Sportingbet (if they'll let you have a bet). Otherwise anywhere around $19 is very good value.

Race 5:

Theres a bit of speed in this race through Centrum, Thunderluv'n and Lee Rani. Having said that, I think Thunderluv'n will get the front here. Adam normally gets his fair share of luck in photos but this horse has been particularly unlucky. Leading instead of breezing might just be the tonic. Lee Rani will apply pressure and finally she has a senior on in McGruddy, who was the last to win on her. Metal Man had the run to suit last start and will probably get that again if they go quickly here. Uma park once again is under the odds. Desire Path also a chance. Thunderluv'n, Metalman, Desire Path.

No Bet.

Race 6:

If Rosie Rocket produces her last run, they wont be beating her in this. Go back three starts however and she was a different horse. Granted Justin Warwick does keep them going once they find form, so all we can do is assume she is in the same shape as last? Premardal is the testing material and has run the trip, running second to Tranquility last year. Peg's Pride drops back to the 1800m and is a big chance here, providing Michael Morton has freshened her sufficiently. Svara, Best Feature and Talent Show should also be suited. Its a shallow market, but there are more chances in this race than suggests. Rosie Rocket, Premardal, Peg's Pride.

No Bet

Race 7:

The Scorcher will be just that. Werd, Latoria and The Entourage will all go quickly here. Latoria will probalby try and lead given her massive weight advantage and her last run was pretty astounding. She has improved 10 fold from her winter form. The race will be set up for the likes of All Friared Up and Morant, who will be closing late. Latoria may well just pack too many punches over the 1000m however. Werd finally gets a barrier and a change of rider, but he has had his chances this campaign. Double figures about him is a bit bold of the bookies however. Avante is poorly weighted alongside Werd, but she is still capable of placing here. Latoria, All Friared Up, Morant.

No Bet

race 8:

While we dont have the support from the east or a particularly high quality cup, the race is a great contest. Pace will come from New Spice, Big Ted, Lopov and even Ringmeister. Kincaple will start the favourite, but the barrier has been a big blow to his chances. He'll have to make a sustained run rounding the bend. Battle Emblem gets Harvey, Western Jewel returned to form last week and Moonlight Bay won the St Leger last time out, all good chances for Bob to win another Cup. Lopov will no doubt stride forward for his new stable and is a complete unknown here first up. God Has Spoken ran the race of his career last start and is surely a chance again although he wont get anywhere near the run he did in the Cox. Im tipping New Spice and cant beleive they bet $51 after final fields came out, from Kincaple and Western Jewel.

Suggested Bet: New Spice at $21 is still good value.

Race 9:

An excellent race to close out the day. Caves Road will start the short priced favourite but well under the odds at the $2.40. With Pin Rouge out, it leaves the leaders spot wide open. Dino Mak can race forward and has returned to his best form and will box seat here and be hard to beat. Caves Road will needs some luck from back in the field but Dwayne Dunn is one of the best and had the class to end the day badly for the bookies. He may even go forward as he did when he won over 1400m in the winter. Romp to Fame was a terrible run last time out but can improve. Dino Mak, Caves Road, Romp to Fame.

Suggested Bet: Dino Mak each way.