Tips for Ascot 14th January

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 14 January, 2012

Its a pretty ordinary card and I'll be going into this one with very little confidence. Tread warily on a day where tactics will play a big part in most races.

Race 1:

A shocking five horse field of stayers. The best two here are Smart Twister and Talent Show, but these races have a habit of throwing up strange results. This race does however have pace via Amberlyn (who should lead) and Smart Twister. Amberlyn could nick it if ridden correctly, but I cant see Forder breaking them open in a five horse field. Talent Show has run three good races this campaign and my guess is she'll stay. Ill tip her ahead of Smart Twister and Amberlyn. The other two cant win on current form.

No Bet

Race 2:

The top three should have this race all wrapped up. On exposed form, you could probably have Black Uma and Akhedasset ahead of The Weapon, but Im just guessing that Durrant's charge has more improvement and upside, being second up here. Pike stays with the horse in a stable he doesn't generally ride for. The other two have to be considered, with Black Uma meeting them better at the weights. Love Magnate is the roughie here. Forget the run at Pinjarra, the run at Bunbury before that was good and the 1500m looks right. The Weapon, Black Uma, Akhedasset.

Suggested Bet: Small spec on Love Magnate at $41 each way.

Race 3:

Another average affair where the class is clearly Avante and Highly Toxic. The former has had a busy campaign and has to run with a weight she has rarely run well with. Highly Toxic was the run of his life in the Crawford, before over racing and ruining his chances in the Summer Scorcher. Ive forgiven him that run, I think he'll lead here and be hard to catch. Hide The Loot can sprint well fresh but hasnt really showed his usual finishing burst of late. Escadaire goes better second up than first. Highly Toxic, Avante, Hide The Loot.

Suggested Bet: Highly toxic each way at $3.50 or thereabouts

Race 4:

Probably the best race of the day. Screaming Plum is asked to do it three weeks in a row and has to win with Bohorun when Harvey couldnt win last week.He's up against it. Uncle George won at huge odds last start and we'll be asked to take the shorts this time. he won well, but had the pie cart up into the race. Scorn Saxon is the one I like but the bar shoes are a concern. Whiting was a victim last time out. Rock and Riff is the smokey and Jim Taylor wouldnt start in this race unless he thought it a chance. It has already been backed from $41 to $21.Benny's Halo was shocking first up and with 60kg and not an easy horse to ride, I'd prefer to see him improve before backing him. Scorn Saxon, Screaming Plum, Rock and Riff.

Suggested Bet: Scorn Saxon each way.

Race 5:

Rocky Range should get the top here and if Grantham lets him run along, will be very hard to beat dropping back into this grade. Fortescue Flyer was probably the best run in the slowly run Caves Road Race and will get the pie run in this. Dempsey had no luck last time out either and first up they backed him heavily so expect money for him again. Oscar Wildly is back in some great form and also a chance here. Rocky Range, Fortescue Flyer, Dempsey.

Suggested Bet: Rocky Range each way.

Race 6:

The two open races to finish off. Lee Rani should speed to the front and be very hard to run down. The last 50m you'll be biting your nails however. Belora will get back and run on in this, but I thought he might be a little longer in the market. Desire Path is had a sensational passage with Dunn aboard on NYE. He wont be getting that run with Kevin Bohorun aboard. Yoakam, Catlantic and Money for Cash also have claims. Tough race. Lee Rani, Belora, Desire Path.

No Bet

Race 7:

Big Hold Up has had a year off the racing scene. His trial was fair. He's the class, but in the two's a bookie has to lay him. Bombora found one better at two of his last three, then fell in last start at Pinjarra. I'll be knocking him aswell. Uma Park was a good run behind Desire path and was ridden very quietly prior to that. He's ready to fire and i like Marco Chui aboard. Vain Strike is in career best form and can figure here also, aswell as Delta Bay at the huge odds. I dont really like sunsilkin at 1400m, but there will be a day for her soon. Uma Park Big Hold Up, Delta Bay.

Suggested Bet: Uma Park each way, spec on Delta Bay at the big odds.