Tips for Ascot 21st January

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 21 January, 2012

Size wise its a much improved program compared to last week but winners are just as well concealed.

Race 1:

Its a tough two year old event to assess by virtue of Fuddle Dee Duddle's pitiful last performance. She should be the best horse in this race however and if you can forgive her, she's the one to beat. Advantage Norman has the best form of the rest and I prefer the Keep Fath formlines to the Playhouse Theatre one. Rue De Marengo for third but won't be playing in this race.

No Bet

Race 2:

This is a fantastic little three year old race with multiple chances. I think Identity Fraud will want to lead here. He's a little green and the best policy with that type of horse is to find the rail, out of traffic. Right Time should breeze and keep him honest. Riobresa can generally be slightly slow away and as a result should probably box seat with Stacks on in the 1x1. That means the top four will be in ideal positions and they are the four I would have fighting out the finish. Im going to spec on Identity Fraud whose run behind Demimonde last year was excellent. Riobresa and Right Time for the minors. Dual City is not without a chance as an outsider in this.

Suggested Bet: Identity Fraud each way at $7 or better.

Race 3:

Another good race with some differing form lines to figure out. Late Night Flight will lead and I have the six year old giving them plenty of cheek in front. He never really performs first up, but second up has an excellent record. Kerrific will be the favourite and was disappointing sitting handy last time out. He's a much better horse allowed to drop out and find his feet. Yuill is more likely to ride him like that. Dempsey is just too short here for mine. He had excuses last week and pulled up distressed, but I cant see the back up being to his advantage. Reverend Lovejoy is the class and Adam produced the old timer to run well both first and second up at Kalgoorlie last year. Kerrific will probably win from Late Night Flight and Reverend Lovejoy, but Ill be specking the other two at odds.

Suggested Bet: Late Night Flight and Reverend Lovejoy straight out.

Race 4:

Caves Road outsprinted them last time out, as you would expect, off a dismally slow pace. He's a classy customer, but has to contend with the 59kg in this. He's definitely good enough. This race once again has no pace, in fact I cant pick the leader. My guess is that Star Buck or Keshaar might end up near the front (Caves Road has also led, but may not be willing, stepping up to the mile with 59kg). Given that, I like Keshaar at the $26. He just whacked into sixth first up, but that was the run of a miler. Big Attitude and Disco Bling will be getting back and will need good rides from Knuckey and O'Donnell to tack on and get momentum at the right time. Media Alert was woeful first up and goes much better than that, but just a watch at this stage for me. Im going out on a limb and tipping Keshaar from Caves Road and Big Attitude.

suggested Bet: Keshaar each way at the big odds.

Race 5:

Another excellent contest with some spruik horses in The Underworld, The Weapon and Taqwaa engaged. On their last runs, The Underworld and Taqwaa cant be too far apart. The latter sat wide throughout and toughed it out to place while The Underwolrd gave them windburn the last 100m. McGruddy sussed The Underworld perfectly and will ride him similar today. Taqwaa is the one I'll tip however. He should get a good run up the front and will take some catching. The jury is out The Weapon for me. He's either an complete one paced stayer, or he's just plain over rated. I'll be taking him on this week, third up at 2100m. Adam does have a good habit of touching up the bookies however! Talent show will be the forgotten runner here. I know the race last week was a sprint home and she overcame a bit of a non winner, but I truly believe she can genuinely stay. Therefore last week didnt really suit her perfectly either. She'll get to good odds here and is the knockout. Taqwaa, The Underworld, Talent Show.

Suggested Bet: probably too tough to tip, but if Talent Show gets to double figures, have something on.

Race 6:

Another tough race without too much pace. Knight Fury gets a let up and back to a distance that is much more suitable. He's not a stayer. Jappaloop had good form last time in work and likewise has had a let up, but will get back here off a slow pace. Romp To Fame has disappointed at his last two and has to carry almost 60kg. Proud Hero had no luck at all first up and finished right on their heels, but usually these type of runner start well under the odds next time out. Im going to spec on Knight Fury getting near the front and provided he settles and Carbery gives him his head, he can sprint well fresh. Jappaloop and Proud Hero for the minors.

Suggested Bet: Knight Fury each way.

Race 7:

Miss Vinoire is an outstanding fresh horse. I know the end to her last campaign was disappointing, but her effort first up in June with 60kg, sitting wide throughout, was enormous. They have bet $8 and that was massive overs. There is still $6.50 available and thats value. Durrahmoore and Best Feature are the dangers here with consistent form. Very Cherry was a shocking trial and although some of the form in Victoria was decent, I'd be giving her a miss first up. Silver Omen is probably no 50/1 shot either. Miss Vinnoire with some confidence from Best Feature and Durrahmore.

Suggested Bet: take Miss Vinnoire anywhere near each way odds.

Race 8:

I completed form on this race with Cavallo Pazzo, Bombora and Metalman all in the market. That throws it all upside down for me now. Im left with Sweet Serenity clearly on top and we should get some pace via Saytorio and Zester. She's the class. Black Felix has been well specked. His trial was fair but his last campaign was disgraceful. The money says he's back, but ill be convinced when i see it on race day. Ginsberg had a poor last campaign, but by the same token had very little luck. He's a definite chance here along with Zester and Fleming Son. Sweet Serenity, Ginsberg, Zester.

Suggested Bet: Sweet Serenity is an each way bet to nothing.