Tips for Ascot 28th Jan

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 28 January, 2012

No doubt its a day to tread warily. It's hard to tell which horses will not handle the heat but I will definitely be avoiding the ones that ran in similar conditions last week. Its a big ask for horses to do that two weeks in a row.

Race 1:

Akhedasset and Black Uma should get the front two positions, as they did two weeks ago. Both are getting out to decent prices now but its the provincial form of Located that I like. He ran on nicely at two runs at Bunbury and the mile should do just nicely. Quadroplex was dominant last start but did only beat Foo Keima, who sat wide throughout. Im knocking the horse and think the winner will come from the top three. Foo Keima is entitled to beat Quadroplex home on their last runs, but it doesnt always turn out like that. Located, Black Uma, Akhedasset.

Suggested Bet: Located if you can get around $4.60.

Race 2:

A bit of exposed form with these two year olds. A couple of rank failures behind Saturday Skies were Miami Horror and Angry Squatter. The latter sat and never looked comfortable. I think Harvey might just let the Oratorio colt run this time and he may be able to produce his trial form. Miami Horror was just a run after never really coming into it. He can improve here with form around Miss Solis. He's bred to be anything. Saturday Skies doesnt meet them too badly for beating them last time out and Keeper Quiet was a good trial. Im going to throw in the Damian Winn trained Unpretentious Lass for a ticky here. Trials have been pretty good and not tested further than 600m yet. Angry Squatter, Miami Horror, Unpretentious Lass

No Bet

Race 3:

A distance race with plenty of pace! Not really sure who wants to lead here but it could be Goose or Rocky Range. I think Smart Twister will end up sitting, as may Amberlyn. Not a fan of any of the back markers, so with little other idea, we'll tip Rocky Range, Goose and Smart Twister. I'll be very cautious with Goose having run in last week's attrocious conditions over 2100m. Hanson is also off, and the Goose/Hanson combination is the formidable one. Silk Force a smokey hope if they go really hard.

No bet

Race 4:

This is a tough race with the only pace, the one paced, Private O'Dea. He has been nommed for a midweeker aswell, so we'll wait and see if he even starts. Nothing else can challenge, but McCallum will not want to make the mistake of stacking them up, because theres nothing surer, Private O'Dea cant win if its a sprint home. Stompin has finally started to put the pieces together and has won two races impressively enough in the bush. Hes not really the type of horse I'd like to be backing as favourite though. The rest dont excite me. Keshaar can improve but is backing up from last week, as is Last Curtain. Mighty Rossa has had more than enough chances. Private O'Dea, Stompin (hard to split them), pick your own for third!

No bet

Race 5:

Its a good race coming off the back of the last which didnt excite. Miss Condition has found some of her old form. Harvey goes on and her run behind Cavallo Pazzo was good. Belora sat four wide throughout two weeks back and prevailed. It was a massive run and Pike goes on for good measure. Delta Bay did everything but beat the smart Big Hold Up. He'll get to a good price here and might be worth a spec. Manahara improved somewhat last week, but backing up. Vain Strike will be running on when its all over, as he has a tendency to do. Belora, Miss Condition, Delta Bay.

Suggested Bet: Belora each way

Race 6:

I was a big wrap for Highly Toxic last time out but Im afraid this week he cant win. The 60.5kg at 1200m will test him and the market will move accordingly. Night War returns for an ambitious campaign. She's a gutsy little filly and will probably go forward although she doesnt have to if something like I'm Here to Win decides to terrorise her. Highly Toxic may also look to sit due to the weight, but he will over race and Forrest may not manage it. Cavallo Pazzo will benefit from speed and barrier, as will Wild Charger. Great'n'Grey also not impossible first up, improving remarkably for Stephen Miller last campaign. Cavallo Pazzo, Wild Charger, Night War with Great'n'grey the roughie.

Suggested Bet: Cavallo Pazzo each way

Race 7:

What looked to me to be a pretty good race, turned out to be anything but on further reflection. I finished up with Just Wicked, who was impressive first up. Full Clip and to a degree, Riobresa have been disappointing. Not sure where the latter gets in running here as he has a tendency to be slow away. He might get posted wide. Hartley's hangover I give a chance at big odds, getting no room last time out in older company and winning well enough prior to that. Pop Culture likewise has improved this campaign and a sneaky watch on Dr Indy. His last two runs were terrible, but with Harvey and blinkers on, with bar shoes off, he's a big watch although probably has bigger fish to fry. Flag Officer may push forward to lead or breeze and create a bit of pace for the swoopers such as Venetian Prince, Dr Indy, Hartley's Hangover, Pop Culture and the likely fave, Just Wicked. Just Wicked, Riobresa, Venetian Prince.

Suggested Bet: Spec on Hartley's Hangover at $31.

Race 8:

Another tough race where Epirb will probably go out favourite despite jumping from 1000m to 1400m. Head for Heights is the one for me. His win in the midweeks was dominant and the 1400m is right up his alley. Saezuri and Felined both went well at the same midweek meeting and can figure again. Mossroy will run on when the race is over and Dominicus has been very good two runs this time in. Head for Heights, Epirb and Dominicus.

Suggested Bet: Each way Head for Heights, spec on Dominicus at $15.