Tips for Ascot 4th February

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 4 February, 2012

Race 1:

Its a moderate field of two year olds heading into Magic Millions month. Three of these by virtue of finishing in the top three, will go straight into the race. Looking Ahead is the obvious pick with Harvey going aboard and Kellie Grantham, a strike rate one of the top line trainers would be proud of. The filly beat Passion Cantata, which came out and won on Wednesday, so that form is good enough for me. Miss Cubed, owned by some powerful owners, trialed well, albeit over 400m and only last Monday. I prefer to see them over 1000m but the obvious goal there is to earn some prizemoney for the weeks ahead. Strike Two, Barrett and Elite Scope also have claims. Tough race.

No Bet.

Race 2:

This is a great race for the three year olds. I was sure I would be backing up onto Identity Fraud after he sat last start and wasnt suited against Final Cut. He'll go forward here, but threre may just be a little too much heat up front from the likes of Nine Tenors, Background and even Oh Bay Me. I think Nine Tenors will lead with Identity Fraud to his outside. Background my box seat and I like him to win this off a good trial. Its A Merc was taken to Esperence twice to learn how to win. He certainly did that last time and he should be rattling home here. Pass The Magic and Lord Balthazar also chances, but I dont like the way the toppie loomed and died on his run last start. Background, Its A Merc, Identity Fraud.

Too wide a race to suggest a bet.

Race 3:

Disco Bling will go out the short priced favourite in this and his last run suggested the extra distance would suit, however that brilliant sprint will be dulled somewhat by the 59kg. There's no pace here. Kellie Kersley often scratches them on race mornings and today is no exception with her two runners out late. Stalingrad was the only possible pace outside of Knight Fury, whom if he doesnt lead, will badly over race. If Carbery can get him to settle, he can win this. Jappaloop had no luck first up and must be forgiven that run. Striking Guru wouldnt surprise either. Knight Fury, Disco Bling, Jappaloop.

Suggested Bet: Knight Fury each way.

Race 4:

A handy staying race with plenty of pace. Goose will want to lead with Amberlyn most likely to his outside. Hanson has a good affiliation with Goose and he'll be hard to beat again. I like Talent show. The saddle slipped last start so we can put a line through that run. Before that she outsprinted Smart Twister but I think a genuinely run 2200m will suit her. Boy Mambo wsa put into the race at Bunbury before Smith let them all go round him and got blocked for a run. One of the strangest rides you would see. Boy Mambo was actually doing his best work on the line and would no doubt have nearly won the race had he kept on with it upon straightening. Crispiano has done nothing since a slashing maiden win against a bunch of walkers. That was with Mark Reed, and he is now with Mike Reed. Cant see him figuring in this. Svara is one that can stay and was a good run last week. Drive West was no 100/1 shot and has been backed accordingly. $31 is even too long for this horse and he is worth a spec. Talent Show, Goose, Boy Mambo.

suggested Bet: Talent Show each way.

Race 5:

Akhedasset should get across to lead these pretty easily and despite the weight, the Harvey factor is significant enough to get him up here. He will be forgotten in the market too. Voices of Spring ran some good races in better company than this last time in and with 52.5kg is my top pick here. Venetian Prince, Quadroplex and Rio Spark had their chances last start. Just Wicked was just a run last time out, although did look like she wanted the 1400m. Knuckey will need to be at his very best here.....then again he has been of late. She is under the odds in my opinion. Voices of Spring, Akhedasset, Just Wicked.

Suggested bet: Akhedasset and Voices of Spring win only.

Race 6:

Another race with no pace. Miss Vinnoire can probalby get the front here and I think Smith went a bit early last time and got nailed on the line. Durrahmore delivered the knockout that day and it was another superb ride by Knuckey. Once again, he'll have to be good to catch here here with the 2kg weight swing. Saezuri is the other that can figure at the business end. Her finishing burst in the midweeks was very good. The Other Harv didnt impress first up. Confident about Miss Vinnoire here from Durrahmoore and Saezuri.

Suggested Bet: Miss Vinnoire each way.

Race 7:

The mile is a tough race to line up with Western Jewel coming back from a dominant Perth Cup win, Pegs Pride from the La Trice and some decent form around Ten Aces, Kerrific and Late Night Flight. The latter will lead here and Forrest should let him run along. He needs to get a break on them turning for home however to win this. Peg's Pride is the one I like. I'm hoping Knuckey loses form early and finds it here! She needs some luck and will probably go forward and try to slot in. The Rocky Range, New Spice, Veracious and Rosie Rocket form holds her in good stead here. Im knocking Kerrific despite his dominant win last start. He has never raced the quality of horses that Western Jewel and Peg's Pride have and is not well weighted here considering. Western Jewel should have almost won both of her 1600m runs leading up to the Cup. However, I prefer Yuill to Neilson and she will get back on the fence. Reverend Lovejoy was probably not primed to win first up. Watch the market here because he is one that can possie up and tip them out at longer odds. $26 is available. Peg's Pride and Western Jewel together, Kerrific third best.

Suggested Bet: Pegs Pride each way.

Race 8:

A raffle to finish the day. Inok must have problems as he has been scratched a few times before and after some impressive trials, misses out again. Lee Rani, Saytorio and Absolute Pleasure will create the pace in this. Marmaa drops substantially in class and while nothing really took my eye at his first two, this is probably his grade. Zester will have to do it tougher than last time out, up in weight and drawn wide. Mantango is better than his last run. When he won first up last campaign, he cartwheeled in. I just think without the trial, he probably caught Pope by surprise. The $10 is good value considering he was favourite first up. Black Felix still hasnt convinced me despite having no luck first up and Ginsberg has lost me. Uma Park some chance, probably better suited sitting as opposed to leading. Tough race and Ill guess with Mantango, Saytorio and Uma Park.

Suggested bet: spec on Mantango at double figures.