Tips for Saturday 11th Feb

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 11 February, 2012

Its a pretty good day of racing all round with the feature events the Magic Millions 2yo and 3yo events. Best of luck to all of our forum members who have runners.

Race 1:

I know these races tend to throw up random results because of tactics and field size, but if Smart Twister is ridden correctly, they wont beat him here. He should lead, and the faster he goes, the further he wins by. Noble Steed is not a stayer, nor is Silk Force in my opinion. The other two in the race are hopeless. The $1.90 is excellent value and I'd be surprised if the tote doesnt open up at $1.50 and remains there. Smart Twister, take your pick for second and third.

Suggested Bet: Smart Twister win.

Race 2:

An excellent race for the three year olds with some good form through the likes of Final Cut, Lord Balthazar, Right Time and Teen Idol. I like Harry's Horse after an outstanding trial and cant believe the $21 they bet early, nor the $17 they're betting now! His two runs last campaign were good enough to see him in the finish here, but it was the trial that grabbed me. Right Time should lead or breeze and give some cheek with Classitheatre. I'm not a fan of the Esperance form however. Final Cut was impressive coming from last to win last time out, but 60.5kg is going to make a difference. Lord Balthazar has never backed up before but Brown going on will suit as the kids have struggled a little with his manners the last two. That Means Horse was an impressive trial in fast time but I cant be tipping him based on a Lark Hill trial. Harry's Horse, Lord Balthazar, Right Time.

Suggested Bet: Harry's Horse each way.

Race 3:

Another great field  of in form sprinters. A couple of them drop back to the unfamiliar 1000m trip here, namely Wild Charger, Zester and Cavallo Pazzo. Blacksmith trialed well alongside Sir Hallowell and this is his pet journey. He might even lead with Harvey aboard and he'll find the class a little easier than the Newmarket and Goodwood. Mabel Grace ran a cracking race first up behind Barakey at the distance last time and Durrant will be trying to go one better here with no trial. She has the class and the 1000m should suit her and her tendency to over race. Wild Charger must have claims, but I think he's a wind up horse and may just find this a tad too short. Cavallo Pazzo has been good at his last three. Highly Toxic will drift heavily again and is not impossible back at this trip, although the weight will make it hard. Blacksmith, Mabel Grace, Cavallo Pazzo.

Suggested Bet: Blacksmith each way

Race 4:

Now this is a tough race. Im going to write some words here, but really i have no idea. The form in the race is probably Head For Heights, Stompin, Flashy Doll and Prime Knockout. Head for Heights worried me the way he over raced last time out. Up the the 1600m and with Staples again, he's a risk if short. Stompin took the slowly run race by the scruff of the neck last time but was outstayed by Keshaar. The barrier makes it harder today. Prime Knockout was a big run, wide no cover behing Avec Mon Ami. She'll get a much better run with Harvey from 1. Flashy Doll likewise no luck last time out. Sundown Clown is getting to a good price although O'Donnell has opted for Flashy Doll. Tough race, go wide. Prime Knockout, Head for Heights, Flashy Doll, no confidence.

No Bet

Race 5:

Rosie Rocket is the interesting one here. On her last two runs, she's unbeatable in this, leading and making them chase. Blinkers off however tells me they are not that interested in firing her up or making the pace. She needs to be ridden aggressively and if they let her drop out, she may aswell be a $10 shot. Big question mark for me. Keshaar improved when the money went on last start but it was a slowly run race and he just overcame Stompin. Belora has the form on the board and is racing extremely well. He's my pick as long as theres a bit of pace. I expect that Bontiara might go forward again with Lie In Wait. The former was a huge run last time out, whipping around them and hitting the front early. Great'n'grey a chance, but will find it hard with the kid drawn so wide. Hibernian is over the odds and can play a part at the mile. Worth a spec at 50/1. Belora, Keshaar, Bontiara.

No Bet

Race 6:

What a great race for the three year olds. Unfortunately for the rest, the two class runners should dominate. Night War has the run under her belt against the older horses and I though her run was terrific. She's such a tough little filly and will get the pie run here. Bliss Street has done it in Melbourne against top class horses like Mosheen, who again proved the form last week. If she had had a lead up run, I'd be tipping her strongly but first up at the 1400m, and with obvious bigger plans, she may just be a little underdone. Outside of those, I can make a rough case for Wicked Game, but his trial was terrible and Rio Spark, who probably should have won last week if not for being snagged back to near on last to find a position in the field. Im a query on horses like Screaming Plum and Riobresa getting the trip. Rohan was impressive at Bunbury and the 50/1 bet was probably overs, but this is a different class today. Im going to sit on the fence, I cant split Night War and Bliss Street, Wicked Game for third.

No Bet

Race 7:

The MM two year old race is a bit disappointing to be honest. Miami Horror had been a little disappointing up to his last start where he really lived up to his breeding. It was an impressive win when he was ridden aggressively. Jestpatim was good in his trial with Harvey pulling him up going across the line. But a 400m trial is not enough preparation for one of these races in my opinion. I liked the trial of newcomer Vonlenska, running on from near last and could have won that trial. Spice Again and Darlington Abbey look like typical run early Simon Miller types. Darlington Abbey did enough at Pinjarra to win first up, but didnt overly impress me. By the weight of early money, she must have improved a fair bit. Magic Halo has been treated poorly at the barriers, I'd have her close to the top of the market had she drawn well. Still, she's definitely a chance in this. Miami Horror, Vonlenska, Darlington Abbey.

Suggested Bet: Miami Horror each way, speck on Vonlenska.

Race 8:

What a raffle to finish off. A ton of good horses with lots of good form. Sir Hallowell has by all accounts had a wind operation and raced well enough in provincial Victoria last campaign. Im not sure he's going to be the superstar he was touted as early, but today will tell us a bit. Miss Tahitian is back to her best, but has had a little let up, hopefully not due to a problem. Fully fit, she'll test these. Bites the Dust was disappointing in the SW Summer Sizzle at Bunbury, she just didnt let down when out in the clear. Go back to her two runs prior and she can definitely figure here. Sir Hallowell to win, but I wouldnt be talking anything too short, Miss Tahitian, Bites the Dust.

No Bet.