Tips for Cyril Flower Day - 25th Feb

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 25 February, 2012

The day is a mix up of decent racing and some very average events. The Cyril Flower looks an ok race thanks to Railway placegetter Westriver Kevydon, Reimbursement, Werd and the excitement machine, Maschino!

Race 1:

No matter how hard you try, you just can't ignore the run of Jestpatim in the Magic Millions. The Patronize gelding actually jumped with the field, but due to the barrier had to ease right back to last. He then over reacted, losing ground off the back of the field. To finish where he did was quite incredible. Harvey sticks and this horse could be a Karrakatta contender after today. Unpretentious Lass won like a good horse at Bunbury, but theres a serious doubt about the horses she beat. El Rijes has the blinkers added and has proven he can run along, winning on debut back in December. We see another couple of Husson Lightnings go around here after their smashing debut last year, getting the quinella with their first ever two runners in Tempetuous Strike and Avuncular. Singing Skies looks the best of the two here. War of Angels also a hope after winning two trials. Jestpatim, Unpretentious Lass, El Rijes.

Suggested Bet: Jestpatim at $3 or better.

Race 2:

If we're looking at staying ability, Hibernian has lengths on this field. The danger of a small field should be countered by the fact that theres plenty of pace here. Amberlyn, Hawkeye Mort and even McTango can set the pace. The jury is still out for me re Silk Force being a genuine stayer. Lovre won the most pitiful staying race put on in town for a long time and while Jazz'n'shiraz and Scrapindipity are in form, they are not the same class as the city performed Hibernian. Adam should just about have him spot on for this and Knuckey goes aboard. Amberlyn is the next best on class and if Diener rides him the same way as last start but without being pestered, she'll run a cheeky race in this. Hibernian, Amberlyn, Scrapindipity.

Suggested Bet: Hibernian each way at the $4 available. A little saver on Amberlyn at $13.

Race 3:

This is one of those poorly looking races I was talking about. I got down to Sundown Clown and found it hard to find a way he would get beaten. The money for him last start was enormous and it seems the Erkelens followers have become massive punters, because the only two they backed in that race was Sundown and the stablemate Flashy Doll. If Sundown Clown had gotten out earlier, he'd have gone close to winning and pulling off the $15 to $6 plunge! He'll box seat and win this. I could make a case for Jack The Sparrow, whose runs have been excellent, but he'll have to give the favourite a big start. Nothing else excites me except so say that Dimitrius will win one soon and Proud Hero will be too short, as per usual. Sundown Clown, Jack The Sparrow, Dimitrius.

Suggested Bet: Sundown Clown at $3.

Race 4:

A bunch of handy three year olds. I think Elusive Image is the best of them and anything over evens is probably decent shopping.  Right Time should lead but might just be vulnerable at the 1200m. The scratchings help Teen Idol. He improved substantially last start and it was a good win. Whiting will still have to be clever from the 9 to get the fave. Democratism trialed well but his winning form wasnt around anything much good. Elusive Image, Teen Idol, Right Time.

Suggested Bet: take the $2.20 Elusive Image.

Race 5:

Miss Vinnoire seems to be all the rage here and while her Bunbury win was pretty good, it didnt contain anywhere near the quality of this field. I didnt really like the way she laid all over the straight and with Hill aboard, she wouldnt want to be up to those tricks against these. Flashy Doll was impressive and was backed heavily last time out. Leading is definitely her go and she'll stride forward here again. The only one I can see holding her out is Lady Lavenham. Even so, breezing shouldnt pose a problem for Flashy Doll. Just Wicked has big wraps but had every hope and just held out Rio Spark. Whether she's up to the older horses at this stage is the doubt I have. Saezuri some hope but will probably over race at the mile. Flashy Doll, Miss Vinnoire, Just Wicked....pretty predictable top three tips  I know.

Suggested Bet: Flashy Doll each wat at $3.80 shouldnt miss a place.

Race 6:

While I think both Belora and Disco Bling are a little short in early markets here, they are clearly the two to beat. Rosie Rocket is the big question mark. On her last run, she cant win. The blinkers have not yet been added but Shaun Meeres goes aboard, so we have half of the winning formula. Market is always the best guide with her. Last start she was unlayable. Belora is having a stellar campaign and with luck, will probably win this again. Disco Bling similar and won against the odds in a slowly run race with a big weight last time out. Great'n'grey ran a shocker behind Belora but is much better than that. Stephen Miller doesnt seem to have his team firing like they were in the winter? Pintada Prince is a chance to upset, especially if he can possie up closer than at his last start. Big Ted always goes well fresh. With Dasher aboard, he may want to lead and is worth a spec at $41. Belora, Disco Bling, Pintada Prince.

Suggested Bet: a silly spec on Big Ted at $41.

Race 7:

The Cyril Flower looks a decent race with some good up and comer's taking on some of the summer carnival performers in Werd and Westriver Kevydon. Werd will show too much zip and should find the front, barring Westriver Kevydon kicking up. Either way, those two should be in the first two with a good pace. Werd has shown a weakness in the last 50m of his races and that will again be the doubt here. McCallum definitely has a softer pair of hands and settled the 7yo gelding the best of his career in the Summer Scorcher. That could be the answer to getting that last 50m! Highly Toxic will probalby have to speed across and could just ignite this race and set it up for a back marker. As such, he has no hope and probalby should be 100/1. Reimbursement will get the benefit of any speed up front and should be box seating. Maschino will be the one everyone is looking for over the final 100m. Its a tough race for him even though he's a super horse. He could well be 12-15 lengths off them at the top of the straight and will need to run a very fast sectional to pick them up. He has only broken the 34 second mark once, but that doesnt mean he cant do it. Moneghetti fired last campaign for Williams and he goes well fresh. He's the one that can upset. Reimbursement, Moneghetti, Maschino.

No Bet

Race 8:

A tough one to finish the day. Miss Tahitian is in smashing form and barring the barrier would be the short priced favourite here. She got the dream run on a track that favoured the inside runners last time out, so that may have flattered her somewhat. She still deserves to be favourite. Bites the Dust improved from her Summer Sizzle run and will again be in the finish  here, as will Chester Road who can sprint and goes well fresh. I'm going for a sneaky one downt he bottom in Nomunnofun. She wasnt far away in the Summer sizzle and was held up behind runners. The two runs before that she was wide no cover in decent company, one race including Bombora and Disco Bling. Its a massive riding change, Forrest to Pike and we'll tip that way for an upset in the last. Nomunnofun, Miss Tahitian, Bites the Dust.

Suggested Bet: Nomunnofun at the $15 each way.