Tips for Ascot Saturday 3rd March

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 3 March, 2012

Race 1:

Its a pretty ordinary way to kick off a good day of racing. A field of four goes around and fifth prizemoney goes begging. Blacksmith is the best horse here, but his last run was ordinary. He loomed like he would win it, then caved in late to finish out of the money. While the prior trial looked good, Sir Hallowell didn't really flatter first up either. Im going for Saytorio, back to 1000m, with no weight at all and Paterson is likely to let this horse speed out in front, tactics that suit best. He's been disappointing this campaign, but he can win this. The key with Noname City is having him settle. He's a different horse when he doesnt over race and O'Donnell managed that perfectly last start. Dont worry about the rise in weights, he can win again. Dont like Union City. Saytorio, Noname City and Blacksmith.

Suggested bet: Saytorio at $3.50 or thereabouts

Race 2:

A tough race in the second. Zester will be pretty short here and while in good form, I think the 1400m just about as far as he wants to go. Pike drawn 1 can counter the concern there however. Ten Aces went average last start but is better than that run. If he can lob in front, he's much better there. Gum Nut Guru ran a good race behind the main chances first up. Winkers come off, which is not really the formula with this camp. Watch the market. Philby did nothing first up but that was 1000m and you'd hardly expect him to sprint over that trip. With Harvey back on, he's a real chance in this race. The roughie is I Dont Recall. He goes particularly well fresh and his trial was pretty good. He's well worth a spec at $14. Zester, Ten Aces, I Dont Recall.

Suggested Bet: small each way spec on I Dont Recall

Race 3:

I couldnt get much past three runners in the staying event. Amberlyn did everything but win last start. Diener rode her well, allowing her to stride along and turn it into a staying test. Hibernian will be the competition again and meets Amberlyn 1.5kg better but draws wide with the apprentice. Knuckey was supreme last start, getting Hibernian over the line in the last few strides. Paterson may not be so efficient and I think Amberlyn may just prevail despite the weight turnaround. Seth's Blessed makes a strong case after winning in a race that was set up for it by stable mate Naku Penda last time out. Ill be interested to see whether Naku Penda has a tendency to over race today, as was quoted as a trait of his last start by his trainer? I dont think Naku Penda will be anywhere near the lead. That will be left to Amberlyn and Rich Success. These two may just set it up again for the likes of Seth's Blessed and HIbernian. Vexillum was left wanting in that same race and cant see him outstaying the top three if run strongly. Amberlyn, Hibernian, Seth's Blessed.

No Bet

Race 4:

The Supremacy is a great race on paper. Miss Solis is the class returning from the early 2yo races, where she was dominant. In fairness, I dont think those early races contained the class of the last few months, but she did do it with ease. The trial with Playhouse Theatre at Lark Hill was quite amazing. Playhouse Theatre looks like a street fighter to me. She was headed at her only start and fought them off to win comfortably. She matched it stride for stride with Miss Solis in the trial, with the latter under the harder riding. If she can get up the front, whomever tries to head her is in for a fight. Profound Effect was a good run first up and although having a good run, can improve here with another good draw. The other Miller runner Spice Again is in this up to her eyeballs. Her run in the Magic Millions was good and she has the run under her belt. Vonlenska was unlucky not to win that same race. The connections have to decide whether they let her drop out from barrier 3, which will make it hard for her to win again, or whether then push up to retain a position, which may dull her finishing sprint. I like the look of her more over 1200m and beyond. Lukes Luck will get back and need luck. Miss Solis, Playhouse Theatre, Profound Effect.

No Bet.

Race 5:

This is an ordinary looking 62-74 race. I was confident about Flashy Doll last week, but she over raced badly when the leader took off. O'Donnell fought her for a couple of furlongs and it told in the end. She still battled away to run third. If she can settle and sit outside Kim Warning here, back to the 1400m, I think she's the one to beat. Kimberley Cowboy will get the good run but had every chance to beat Capricious Lad last start. Dare To Doubt has had no luck at three of his last four, winning two of them despite being caught wide. He may get caught wide again here. Goldy Junior has a great second up record and with the pace up front here, he's my roughie to be storming home. That pace will also suite the likes of Endless time. Flashy Doll, Kimberley Cowboy, Goldy Junior.

Suggested Bet: Flashy Doll each way at $4.20 wont miss, spec on Goldy Junior at $21.

Race 6:

I did like the chances of Stay Lady Stay, despite stepping up in class, last start in the Challenge. She sat, over raced and ruined her chances. Drawn the 15, I think they have no choice but to to forward here and that will suit her. Pop Culture was a good run behind Full Reign, but laid in significantly, which probably cost her the race. Caiguna disappointed first up but is the class based on her back in the spring. Dark Miss looks an out and out staying type and will be suited at the 1800, as does Mount Marion who got to the line stoutly last start. I dont think The Social Network is any good and Voices of Spring was terribly disappointing at Pinjarra. The smokey is Elite Belle. She's the second stringer for Peters, but I think she can upset in this. She ran on well at her only two starts and unlike many of them, has two runs under her belt stepping up to the 1800m. Stay Lady STay, Dark Miss, Elite Belle.

Suggested Bet: each way spec on Elite Belle at $16.

Race 7:

Full Reign will go out favourite here and despite looking for something to beat him, I kept coming back to him. He'll get the good run again from 4 and has had the best preparation. Uncle George, while a smart animal, will have to jump from 1200m to 1600m and do it from 17. Flag Officer will get the front and has run two good races. He should be thereabouts again. Reign of Terror looks a staying type. He sat wide and took ground off Another Lyrical in the midweekers, something not many did on that day. Lord Hatras disappointed last time out, looking the winner 200m out and running fourth in the end. Dash For Home is a big ask up to the mile so quickly and Located is a good chance here. Full Reign, Reight of Terror, Flag Officer.

No Bet

Race 8:

A good race to finish on. Sir Hallowell has all the wraps in the world but has failed to deliver, barring one impressive win as a three year old. Harvey nursed him into the race last start, but he just found Miss Tahitian too strong on the inside pad. Drawn 11 with 58kg, he's a risk. Lee Rani will speed over from the 12 again and be hard to run down. She had a torrid run two weeks ago and lay all over the track and was lucky to keep the race. Tricky Sid is one to watch the market. He propped at the start and lost all chance two weeks ago, but ran on well under the hard riding of Noske. Expect him to box seat today. Watermans Bay was impressive first up, sitting deep with cover before Classic Emblem nailed him on the line. It was a great run, but these are older and more accomplished horses. As a result, he will be under the odds and a risk aswell for me. Dante's Alert has the second up card to win this race. The barrier 2 is a big concern however and Lee Rani may just ensure that Dante's is a mile off them turning for home. He has a great finish however and  with some luck, can get over the top of them. Dante's Alert, Sir Hallowell, Waterman's Bay.

No bet.