Tips for Ascot Saturday 17th March

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 17 March, 2012

Race 1:

I can find a way to knock the likely top two in this race, simply due to the lack of experience on top of both Brave Knight and Belora. Ned Colbeck returns from a long lay off to ride the favourite, who has been perfectly ridden by Pike at his last few. Paterson takes over from Yuill on the topweight from the wide barrier. Justin Warwick has taken over the preparation of Canardly Miss and Im forgiving the first up run and she is right up to this class. Chester Road went average first up and will improve here too and Miss Condition has been disappointing, but may race forward here, improving her chances. Its a tough race to start off but Ill tip Chester Road from Canardly Miss and Knight Fury.

Suggested Bet: Canardly Miss if there is any money for her at all.

Race 2:

The colts this year definitely seem inferior to the fillies at this stage, barring the two that should dominate this race. Luke's Luck ran a corker behind Miss Solis in the Supremacy but Harvey has opted for Jestpatim, who creamed an average bunch whilst in second gear late last month. Express Service had no luck in the midweeks and proved he was thereabouts with his placing at long odds to Darlington Abbey. Miami Horror gets the blinkers added here and I think they'll just speed to the front in an attempt to do what they did in the midweeks when accounting for Keeper Quiet. That will create the speed needed for Lukes Luck to really play a part. Detection was a great trialer in fast time a few weeks back, although this is a tough assignment first up. Jestpatim should box seat and we have to respect Harvey's judgement. Jestpatim, Luke's Luck, Express Service.

No Bet.

Race 3:

Its a great little field in the WATC stakes. Latoria will be the favourite and should lead here. The only slight concern is that she was supposed to trial a few weeks back and has come to the races without the hit out. Werd will show his usual early dash and sit outside her, that is unless Highly Toxic decides to drive them both mad, which he has done at his last few. That will leave Power Princess box seating and Werd possibly in the 1x1. All Friared Up will appreciate the 1100m and the small field. She is capable of a sizzling last sectional too, so this is right up her alley. Latoria, All Friared Up, Werd.

No Bet.

Race 4:

This is a great race and probably contains the Karrakatta winner. Miss Solis is the worthy favourite and even money is about her right quote. She dominated Luke's Luck last time out with Carbery pulling her up on the line. The beauty of her is she knows how to sit and she has a "go" button when required where many of these may only know one way. The Danehill Rose and Sky Princess were both good runs last time out, sitting wide but in weaker company. Darlington Abbey is reported to have come on in leaps and bounds since staving off Vonlenska in the Magic Millions. The latter will have to do it hard again from the back of the field, but was an excellent run first up. Playhouse Theatre will improve on her first up tilt, but may be party to th pressure that will be applied up front. Great race, Miss Solis, Darlington Abbey, Vonlenska.

Suggested Bet: Miss Solis at the $2.20 available.

Race 5:

Its an average 1500m race to follow up the Gimcrack. Vermeer had absolutely no luck last time out but I think there will be an over correction to his price today. Endless Time has to jump from the wide barrier with Aaron Rogers aboard. It will be a tough ask for the kid to steer this from near last. New Time is a bit of a bridesmaid, but if he can win a race, this should be it. He and Red Mercedes broke away from the rest of the field in the midweeker and Red Mercedes followed that up with a huge run last week. Pike goes onto Takeonefortheteam which is a good lead. His three runs at Bunbury have been good and this field is not strong. A sneaky eye on Athena's Me Mum, who backs up from a pretty ordinary effort at Bunbury just six days ago. Vermeer, New Time, Takeonefortheteam.

Suggested Bet: Takeonefortheteam at $12 or better, each way.

Race 6:

Pop Culture was a huge dose of unders in the 1000 Guineas, but she got the money! Elite Belle, with any luck, would have beaten her convincingly that day. This week we have to cop her as favourite, but I think that's justified. Pop Culture is no doubt the danger and Stay Lady Stay did it everywhere but the post. If she can settle a little better early, I think she'll run the trip and is probably the value again this week. Opera Seria put in an eye catcher over the 1800m behind those mentioned above. She looks a certainty to run out the strong 2200m and can tip them all out. Mount Marion, likewise was a grinding run over the 1800m and the trip should suit her too. Caiguna also a chance. Its a pretty good race and we'll tip Elite Belle, Pop Culture, Stay Lady Stay and Opera Seria.

No Bet

Race 7:

There were some disapointing runs behind Flag Officer in the TJ Smith, but one thing I noticed was that hardly any horse passed another in the straight. I think Staples just rode the perfect race on Field Officer and stole the race with a good ride. Im forgiving a few of those that chased and couldnt pass others. Full Reign, Dash For Home, Reign of Terror, Uncle George and Located fall into that category. Rohan is the addition here after taking no chances in the midweeks, circling the field and winning easily. He will definitely get the 1800m, but may just get too far off them at the turn. Rock Band was a similar story, winning his midweeker easily, but Pike will have to decide if he goes straight to the breeze from 20. I think he will. Outside of those two, theres not much pace again, which brings field Officer into the race yet again. Full Reign will improve with blinkers. Dash For Home, Rohan, Field Officer but go wide in your quaddie leg. Throw in Bayfield, Reign of Terror and Lethal Jones.

No Bet.

Race 8:

Liquidation is the class i this field but the price has been over corrected due to the weight and jockey. Drawn well, he should get a great run if Mitchell Pateman can steer him well. He all but won the Mungrup Sprint last time out and has an excellent second up card. Rafferty was in outstanding form last spring but  I cast my mind back to his first up run that campaign and it was ordinary. He has the class, but I'd be willing to risk him as favourite. Mantango improved sharply last time out but I prefer at the 1400m. Lee Rani, finally, gets a decent barrier. She's a tough little cookie and can be in front for a long time without having to do too much work to lead this week. Pillow Time will the the one that could bring her unstuck however. Plain Lucky had all the luck at Pinjarra and will need more than just luck to win this, drawn wide with paterson aboard. The pace will help though. Liquidation, Rafferty, Lee Rani.

Suggested bet: Liquidation each way at $10.