Tips for Ascot 24th March - Puntathon

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 24 March, 2012

Race 1:

There may be a few late contenders for the Karrakatta go around in this race in the first. Fuddle Dee Duddle is not the best 2yo going around, but will be the favourite here compliments of her race experience and P Harvey. Opera Show has massive wraps, which leads me to ask why it wasn't nominated for the Karrakatta in the first place? His trial was impressive, even though it wasnt the fastest on that day. Detection was the fastest trial on his day and I thought he chased hard first up behing El Rijes. The back up is a concern, as it is with the favourite. Romany Bel was a very good trial. She raced like an experienced race horse and ran home of the back of an average up front speed. Likewise, Sweet Malooo was a good trial, but the runner up failed in the midweeks. Tough race: Fuddle Dee Duddle, Opera Show, Detection.

Suggested Bet: Detection if you can get double figures.

Race 2:

I believe Almachino is the best horse in this race and her form last campaign was in the good races. Her trial was decent, although she was shaken up and didnt go all that quick. Irma La Dane had all the favours and a great ride form Pike to just get over Full Clip. She meets Full clip worse at the weights here, but Pike is probably worth that over Pateman. Fonzarelli is the one we'll tip to upset. He should have won last start with any luck and Brown goes aboard. Ave the Snip and Palmdale also chances. Fonzarelli, Almachino, Full Clip.

Suggested Bet: Fonzarelli each way at double figures.

Race 3:

Watermans Bay was unlucky not to win at his last two. I dont think he's a non winner, despite missing out at his last three. In the Breeders Classic, he was climbing to be let go and get into the race, but was still being restrained on the home bend. I believe Fish is a great riding choice for this horse and he has the spirnt to put them away. Gaps in me Knees is the obvious speed and she looks a one paced type. The 1500m and even longer will suit but I think horses like Watermans Bay and Comtesse La Gran can outsprint her at this trip. Fort Courage is the big improver. His first up run was disgraceful, but his runs against the likes of King Saul and Ron's Call last campaign see him right in this race. Take some of the $35 on offer. Rantorini a chance also and don't like Lord Hatras on the back up. Watermans Bay, Comtesse La Gran, Gaps In Me Knees.

Suggested Bet: Spec on Fort Courage at the big odds.

Race 4:

This is a tough staying race. Proud Hero will be the favourite and looks like getting the trip even though he's untried at it. The Other Harv has tried the trip (or near to it) and was desperately unlucy earlier in his career at 2000m. She got all the favours last time out in beating Proud Hero and goes up 5kg here. Ill knock her. Burin was poorly ridden at Barker and Hall is a positive riding change. Super Hawk is also down in class from the Bunbury cup. His prior win was a welcome return to some form. Scrapindipity some chance but had every hope last time out. Seth's Blessed wasnt ridden the best at his last couple and is back to the 2200m here. Lost Me Jewels is up in class. Proud Hero, Super Hawk, Burin.

suggested bet: spec on Burin her at the $19.

Race 5:

They'll go like the clappers in this 1000m event. Celebration Girl, Freetime, I'm Here to Win and Valiance could all go fast. I think one of the swoopers will win it, and one that is capable of a sectional in the low 33's . Jay Jay Makster would be my top pick, freshened up with Pike aboard and is capable of a sub 33 sectional. Freetime goes well fresh and could keep on going but need to race tractably. Megem's Boy, Earl of Vasse and Whistledownthewind are also capable. The latter had no luck at Pinjarra when finishing close up to Beach Express and does best at the front end of her campaign. Jay Jay Makster, Beach Express, Freetime.

Suggested Bet: Jay Jay Makster each way.

Race 6:

This is a tough race and Hawkeye Mort should set up the front end once again. The favourites in this are a little vulnerable in Soldier's Salute, Dimitrius and Ancient Spell. I give Supernova a chance of upsetting at big odds along with Goldy Junior. You do have to forgive each of their last runs however. Sound Barrier was a fair trial behind better horses and does go pretty well fresh. Its probably a bad race to get involved with but we'll tip Soldiers Salute with no confidence, Supernova and Goldy Junior.

Suggested Bet: Spec on Supernova and Goldy Junior at $26 and $15 respectively.

Race 7:

Its a really tough race outside of the obvious leader, Flashy Doll. As a result, I think she will be shorter than she should in this race. Chong Nonsi is a more than handy horse but the weight will put plenty of us off. Saezuri will need a good pace to perform here and outside of Flashy Doll, there isnt much speed in it. She might over race. Arctic Ocean is backing up but her win last week was impressive and Athena's Me Mum is another watch, even though her last two runs were pathetic. She's good enough on her day and Justin Warwick will get her up in one of these. Flashy Doll, Chong Nonsi, Arctic Ocean.

No Bet

Race 8:

There are a couple of pretenders in this race and you always have to be wary when you price them on top. The Tenby Friar ran Luckygray to a neck first up last campaign and I think he is best at the fresh end of his campaign. black Felix showed a return to form two starts ago when nailed by Bites The Dust, who has really gone on with it. Last time out he never saw daylight and has been replace by Noske, who if nothing else, will give this horse a good wake up! Belora should also have won last start when held up, then passively ridden to the line for Ned Colbeck's first ride back. He was desperately unlucky to be nailed by Canardly Miss. King Point a chance but pateman is the concern, as is Mantango who has put in two good runs, but Hall will have another task from 12. Miss Vinnoire wasnt that impressive in my book in beating, well, not much last start. Timely Reign also a chance with Carbery aboard if he can reproduce his first up run. I hate to do it, but Black Felix, The Tenby Friar and Belora.

Suggested Bet: Belora will be the value here. Hard to win with 60kg but if he owes you nothing, a good bet each way.