Ascot tips - WA Derby Day 14th April

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 13 April, 2012

The supporting card isn't that great for Derby / Sires day, although the supporting races are at least competitive. I found the Derby to be a really wide open race, with most runners having a chance to win the race.

Race 1:

Valiance should take the front here with Beach Express adding the pressure to his outside. The latter has improved out of sight for Adam Durrant and was not disraced behind Barakey, beating the others in the race with ease. The only question mark for me is, how much did that take out of him last week? Rebel Fury trialed nicely and ran good time but was given a nice hit out all the same. Blacksmith is going terrible but has had a six week gap since his last run. Beach Express, Rebel Fury and Blacksmith.

Suggested Bet: Beach Express win

Race 2:

Mabel Grace has been in outstanding form this campaign. After going down narrowly in the Cyril Flower and then breezing in the Bunbury Stakes, she led and was beaten by the stakes winning mare Power Princess in the Miss Andretti. This is the best form of her career, she should lead this and win it. Reimbursement takes the knock at the weights but Whiting will give him every chance in the box seat. Gum Nut Guru sat outside King Point in a pedestrian run race last week and was an $8 chance. Not sure how you'd expect him to be a $4 chance in this? Im wary of the Justin Warwick / blinkers on phenomenon, but he'll be outsprinted in this. Speccio improved leading in the Pinjarra Classic, but that wasnt quickly run and Dempsey is out of his depth. Mabel Grace, Reimbursement, Gum Nut Guru.

Suggested Bet: Mabel Grace win

Race 3:

I was a bit disappointed with Almachino's last effort behind Travinator and she goes up substantially in weight here. The 1400m might suit her better however. Ave The Snip had no luck in the straight behind Full Clip and he won well prior to that. The senior goes back on for this. I have a query over Irma La Dane at the 1400m and the blinkers are obviously to sharpen her up after dropping the bit at the crucial stage last time out. True Gold is just a horse but Pike must be respected. I dont like Background at the 1400m either. The one I do like is I See Luck at double figures. The Wolfe trained gelding had no luck at his last two runs, two starts ago being narrowly beaten by the promising Accelarometer. The 1400m looks like it will suit and McGruddy goes on, which is a positive. We'll spec on I See Luck from Ave The Snip and Almachino.

Suggested Bet: I See Luck each way at double figures.

Race 4:

Ron's Call is touted to be Simon Miller's next Group performer. There are big plans for him this campaign and as such, he'd be needing to win this well to justify those. His trial looked ordinary, but Miller will have him tip top for this. Blinkers go back on and he'll be very hard to toss chasing the up front speed likely to be set by Ima Citinpretty and Zip Code. Outside of that, Honest Lies is the class here. His runs have all been in Sydney Metro Saturday class and Lindsey Smith has dodged the trials to go first up into this. My only query is that this might be too short and he'll be run off his legs. Well worth a spec at $21 however. Metal Talk is a tough horse to ride. His tendency to over race has cost him more than once and the trial showed he has not learned from those mistakes. The only saving grace here is that Ima Citinpretty will fly. This brings him into the race, provided he settles. Cockeyed Bob and Du Printemps also have place claims. Ron's Call, Honest Lies, Metal Talk.

Suggested Bet: small spec on Honest Lies each way.

Race 5:

Rose will be all the rage here and she should be undefeated. She was most unlucky last time out and we took her on, simply because we thought she needed luck. Well the same goes in this race. She can be tardy away and could be back on the fence from barrier 4. Lookout though if she gets some luck in the straight because she's classes above these. Comtesse La Gran had no luck in the Raconteur last start while Resetgold was positively ordinary. She will no doubt improve here however. Straleta, Saezuri, Elle Choisit and Canardly Miss are all good chances outside of the favourite. I'd be throwing them in to your quaddie, just in case Rose finds trouble. Canardly Miss is the sort of horse that can bob up here and last week was nothing more than a trial for her. The weight doesnt help, but Hall will ride her patiently. She's a spec at $31. Rose, Canardly Miss, Resetgold.

Suggested bet: spec on Canardly Miss at $31 each way.

Race 6:

An excellent race and Im afraid Ive come up with nothing ground breaking in this one. I like the three main chances, Luke's Luck, Miss Solis and Keeper Quiet. Miss Solis was enormous in the Karrakatta, three and four wide throughout. She loomed like she was going to kill them and just peaked. Keeper Quiet had a similar run, but with cover. Her finish was fantastic under the circumstances and the 1400m will be perfect for her. Luke's Luck on the other hand had all the right runs but finished powerfully. If the other two get even luck, I think they'll beat Luke's Luck home. The smokeys are The Danehill Rose, who has had no luck in her last three runs, and Fine Copper. Keeper Quiet marginally from Miss Solis and Luke's Luck.

Suggested Bet: Keeper Quiet each way.

Race 7:

What an outstanding race! I give winning chances to all but three runners. Flashy Fella has had a decent preparation for this race and reportedly got here last week to settle in. He hasnt been thrashed to this point either, with his last two runs a month apart. He made two runs at Caulfield when winning narrowly over 2000m, taking off at the half way point to sit outside the leaders, then camping before making a run up the straight to nose them out. When he sprinted, he did so explosively mid race. His run prior to that in a Group 2 over 1800 was excellent. He'd have been winning in another few strides. Rohan has some tricks. He probably should have had a picket fence and without those traits, he'd be the clear cut favourite here. Smith will ride him aggressively again and he can win. Lethal Jones, while a good run in the Melvista, had the good run through the field. From $17 last time to favourite this time, he can run without me. Flag Officer had no luck at all and definitely got the trip. He'll lead here and give a lot of cheek. Ive forgiven Drive West who was hustled to the front but weakened badly. No one is riding better than P Hall in the big races. This horse will stay and Hall will ride him patiently this week. Im knocking Pop Culture and The Social Network. Reign of Terror, Rock Band and Elite Belle also chances. Flashy Fella, Rohan, Flag Officer.

Suggested Bet: Flashy Fella each way at $6.50, spec on Drive West at $26.

Race 8:

Its an average way to finish a good day's racing. Stompin will start the short priced favourite, compliments of his consistent form and big weight  drop. He does go substantially up in class however. Mickey Drippin defeated Rafferty with every possible hope a fortnight back and cops the brunt of the handicapper here. Ocean Cracker is the rougie in this. Forget the run last week in the slowly run race behind King Point. He was never a hope to make up ground in that. His run at Pinjarra was out of his class and this is right back to his liking, both class and distance wise. The $21 is generous. Star Buck some chance on his run two starts back and Crosswise was an enormous run to finish where he did behind Rivotio at Albany. Faithfull to Pike might just be the most significant riding change a trainer could make? Moment of Love has had his chances and Tennessy is way under the odds. Ocean Cracker, Stompin and Crosswise for some value in the last.

Suggested Bet: Ocean Cracker each way at $21.