Tips for closing day at Ascot - 28th April

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 27 April, 2012

Race 1:

We're back to having no idea about the two year olds I'm afraid. Century King is another Heritage from the Tim Stubberfield camp and Chocolate Moose, owned by my good mate Larry Foley, as he calls it, the worst named horse in the history of racing! Fleeting Time raced on the speed when winning at Pinjarra first up and had good trial form before that. Mister Panon beat the maiden winner Star of the Orient in a trial and Night Train was a good winner in her 400m trial. Hussars and Sweet Maloo can continue the good early form of the Husson Lightnings. Good little race, too hard to tip!

No Bet.

Race 2:

Modello is being spruiked as the next big thing in some circles. While I have it on top, I think Travinator is a good chance of beating it. Modello however proved it could carry the weight and won well enough over subsequent winner, Cant Hartley Wait. Travinator chased a blistering speed to be too strong for his field three weeks ago and has struggled to find another suitable race until now. Pure Adrenalin should lead these up and he is a speedy horse, but the 1100m might just see him out. Having said that, he has done work at his last few 1000m races from wide barriers. While beating Lisetta at 1000m is no mean feat, I'd prefer to see Nine Tenors put two together before tipping her.Modello, Travinator, Success Park.

Suggested Bet: Travinator each way at $3.

Race 3:

A good race that sees Ron's Call and Metal Talk meet again after the latter upset Simon Miller's charge last time out. Rons meets Metal Talk 2kg better and really should be winning this. His first up run was good, getting way out of his ground. Likewise, Metal Talk settled beautifully, which he rarely does. The pace here will suit both with Solsay and Pin Rouge up front. The latter is some sort of chance, he can lead and goes exceptionally well fresh. I dont like Almachino at all, I thought she had every chance and only just prevailed over Ave The Snip. Impatient Times is poorly weighted and had his chance to win one by leading last time, but opted to sit. Ron's Call, Metal Talk, Pin Rouge.

Suggested Bet: Ron's Call at evens or better.

Race 4:

I liked the run of Bustabill first up where they slammed him in the bookies ring. He sat wide and kept coming, a run on which you would think he'd get the 1400m. On the other hand, Mendicity went terrible first up. She misssed the kick then had to be hunted wide off a fast pace. She just never got into the race, but her form last campaign has her winning this and the $6.50 they bet early was overs. Cat Five raced a little bit tight in the straight and that may have hampered his chances in the midweeker, but I still dont think he'd have won. The smokey is down the bottom, Blitz Off. She was tailed off behind Cant Hartley Wait before pulling out in the straight and running on well. Her prior form was also good. Im a little bit wary of the slow sectional and Hayley Diener aboard, but at double figures, she's worth a spec in this field. Ave The Snip is also a chance racing forward. Bustabill, Mendicity, Blitz Off.

Suggested Bet: Blitz Off each way at $15 or better.

Race 5:

The first of two very ordinary staying races on the day. Luminol should get the front and has been running good races. Fair Hunter may either sit outside it or trail it. He ran a good race last week for Jason Miller and that run would see him win this, but a concern over the back up. Super Hawk will start the favourite and rightfully so. He had no luck at Narrogin and before that finished hard to be Chester Road when it looked like Chester was home. He hasnt won with the big weight before however. Crispiano and Seths Blessed are worth watching the market on. The latter had no luck in the Narrogin Cup. Fair Hunter, Super Hawk, Seths Blessed.

Suggested Bet: Fair Hunter each way.

Race 6:

I found it hard to go past the top two in betting in this race. Chester Road spoiled his chances by over racing early at his last run, tiring in the last 100m to be over run. Blinkers come off and winkers go on, but his chances all hinge on him settling. Stompin goes up sharply in weight and although he's done nothing at this trip, I think he can stay. Sound Barrier was probably over the odds at $18 b but finds it hard to win. Couldnt recommend anything else. Chester Road, Stompin, Sound Barrier.

No Bet

Race 7:

The York Stakes is a pretty good race without having any top liners engaged. Battle Emblem surprised with his win over 1400m off a slow pace last time out. His run in the Pinjarra Cup before that was incredible, over racing badly and still finishing close up. He's obviously feeling well and to tell the truth, I think 1600m suits him better than the staying trips. Mabel Grace should have led last start but pulled her head off in the breeze, which destroyed her chances. She has a good record at the mile, but it has been leading. There may be enough pace here that she can slot in, through the likes of Speccio, Big Ted and even Gum Nut Guru. I couldnt understand the tactics on Gum Nut Guru last start, snagging back off a slow pace. You'll find a different story this week in the listed race. He'll go forward and race just behind the speed and be put right into this race. Our Ol' Fella and I Dont Recall won due to outstanding rides last time so Im willing to knock them this week. Ive tipped and backed Canardly Miss at her last two, so I'll let her go today. She can win however. Tough Race, Battle Emblem, Mabel Grace, Gum Nut Guru.

No Bet.

Race 8:

Rouge Dior was outstanding last time first up when beating Beach Express with ease. That horse went on with it this campaign while Rouge Dior failed and spelled. A reproduction of that first up run with a favourable weight here would see her win. Silver Trader is the smokey. Backed from $16 to $9 already, he's first up for Adam Durrant with no trial. On his day, he's a pretty smart animal and is the chance to upset. Outside of that, there are many chances, Money for Cash, Zip Code, Texan, Cassidy Cowboy and Navarda Lad. Rouge Dior, Silver Trader, Cassidy Cowboy.

Suggested Bet: Rouge Dior each way, save on Silver Trader.