Tips for opening day Belmont Park - 5th May

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 4 May, 2012

The first week back at Belmont is always a difficult day for punters with the change in track. This year there will be an added difficulty of the wet track. Having said that, a few of the shorties look very good, particularly early in the programme.

Race 1:

Its a staying race with a bit of pace through the likes of Tigersinthewoods, Bombard and Chester Road. The latter will be the short priced favourite and even though Hibernian and Super Hawk come with good form, I believe the price about Chester Road is justified. He was much too strong for them last week and prior to that just ran out of condition when stepping up. One would think he'd be rock hard now and hardest to beat. Super Hawk sprinted best in a pedestrian affair last week, but is in great form. This is a step up in class for Hibernian as I believe the country cups were particularly weak this year. He's a good Belmont horse however and a genuine stayer. The rest are not. Chester Road, Hibernian, Super Hawk.

Suggested Bet: Chester Road at better than evens.

Race 2:

Theres a bit of good trial form here with the two year olds. Bonny Baby trialed well after being scratched at the barrier at her debut. Before that she won well at Belmont trials. Theoria was super impressive at Bunbury, winning hard held. Black Truffle and Saturday Skies are the raced form, both went forward and knocked up at their last runs, but in decent company. Against my better judgement I'll go for the trial form in Bonny Baby and Theoria to beat Black Truffle.

No bet

Race 3:

Theres a bit of pace in this and its a great little race for the three year olds. The only problem is, the one lurking down the bottom, Ja Ja Saab. His win at Pinjarra first up was incredible, after racing three wide, he left them like a very good horse and ran fast time. Real Glow has since franked the form. Outside of Ja Ja, this is an even race. Demimonde is clearly next best for me and loves the 1000m with the barrier to suit. In case Ja Ja Saab runs into some bad luck, Demimonde is a great saver at the $18 still available. Red Hot Sax, King Saul and Shining Knight would all give this race a shake. Anshan impressed at Pinjarra, as did Beguile, with the former running better time on the same day and doing it tougher. Keystone Rose was a big price at $31. Her trial was ordinary, but her form prior was good enough. Checkpoint has been gelded. I dont like Just Wicked and think these will be too sharp for her. She's a lay.

Suggested Bet: Ja Ja Saab at $2.50, save on Demimonde.

Race 4:

This is a dangerous race due to lack of pace. Last time in this type of race, they let King Point stroll along out in front and hang on at good odds. He may well do that again, but I dont think he can recreate that run with the 59kg. Elle Choisit may also go forward, but she either jumps or misses the start badly. She has to be a risk. Cristiano is a non winner and will prove me wrong one day, but the bookies are miles ahead laying this character and Im sure they'll continue to do so. Mr Moet has to be the one to beat. His run first up was excellent and the further they go, the better he gets. Pace is the only concern. For that reason, I'll knock Come Party, who will need pace moreso than Mr Moet. Greatwall of China has been ridden like he couldnt win at his last two runs. While his last was a bit ordinary, there was no initiative taken. Ill give him one last chance with O'Donnell to take the ride. Ocean Cracker is sacked after his pitiful effort last start. Mr Moet, Greatwall of China, King Point.

Suggested Bet: Mr Moet, save on Greatwall of China.

Race 5:

A good little dash over the 1000m with plenty of pace. Return to Rio will probably be too speedy, particulary with Renee Forrest aboard, who will let him run. Blinkers go on after an impressive trial without. I reckon they could be 4 and 5 wide trying to get near the front here with Beach Express, Freetime and Centrum all drawn wide, with the speedy Pillow Time drawn the inside. While I think this is a big step up in class for Metalman, the pace will suit. Full Clip might also come into it with a sit, although Im not a fan of the hrose. Leanonus is a big price and has excellent 1000m form and trialed well. Megems Boy can also swoop but will need luck from back on the fence. Return to Rio, Metalman, Full Clip.

Suggested Bet: Return to Rio each way if he gets to $3.

Race 6:

From a competitive 1000m race to a shocking excuse for a race. Maybe Delta Bay and Ten Aces will go forward.....maybe not? Bermaise won in a blanket finish in the Matchmaker where half the field got held up or had no luck. The Tenby Friar is another non winner who will one day prove us wrong, but we're still way in front. Secret Enigma would be my tip but for the bar shoes. He was wide and pulling near on last at his previous run. The trial before that was good. The rest are simply out of form, but any one runner returning to his best could win this. I cant tip The Tenby Friar, so I'll tip Secret Enigma, The Tenby Friar and Bermaise.

No Bet, terrible race.

Race 7:

Rose will be all the rage here and at first glance, I thought she was a lay in this field. You have to put a line through her last run, she just never got clear, and when she saw daylight, the gaps were quick to close. She definitely needs clear running and needs to wind up. Harvey is just the ticket. If she stays in the clear, she'll win. Be So Ryski disappointed when leading and running third at his last run.l That was over a month ago however and he can be the danger, sitting up on the speed, if Rose gets any bad luck. Nothing else excites me here. Resetgold was disappoitning again last start in my opinion. When she dashed through on the fence, she was entitled to go better. She'll be back and possibly even behind Rose. Dont like her chances from there. Rouge Dior still has the bars on and was just a run last week. Rose, Be So Ryski, Rouge Dior.

Suggested Bet: Be So Ryski each way.

Race 8:

The last looks a tough race on paper. Ziprossa comes over with good form from mostly midweek and provincial racing in Sydney. That form should stand him in good stead in this type of field. The trial was excellent. The danger is Full Steam Ahead, whose Gero form was good before winning well at the midweeks. He then had no luck before sitting wide and Harvey sat up the last little bit when it was evident it was all over. Despite that he was only beaten a length. Outside of those two, New time, Endless Time and Chanify can improve. Capricious Lad cops the bad barrier again, as does Red Mercedes. Both might race wide. Ancient Spell will not sprint with these as I think he's a one pacer and probably needs a mile or more. Ziprossa, Full Steam Ahead, New time.

Suggested Bet: Ziprossa each way, take the $5.50.

Double: Chester Road into Ja Ja Saab

TReble: Chester Road into Ja Ja Saab into Return to Rio.