Tips for Roma Cup Day 26th May

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 25 May, 2012

Roma Cup Day is historically one of the better meetings of the Belmont season. The Cup itself is a high quality event, thanks to two time winner Grand Nirvana, Railway winner Luckygray and throw in a Winterbottom winner and a Derby winner.

Race 1:

A rare 3yo mile race to start the day and Pattie Me Lass is the class, having won twice, one of those trouncing Flag Officer. She went well first up in a slowly run race and will improve with that effort. Blinkers coming off is a slight concern as that is what switched her on last campaign. True Gold is the testing material. Probably unlucky to have run into Kalahaar twice and then Anshan at Bunbury, who is also a fair horse. True Gold should appreciate the mile. Pace will be from Phenomenal Anemone (its hard enough to type, let alone pronounce) and Blomkvist with blinkers added. They'll roll along. Phenomenal is a hope based on his effort at Pinjarra. While Swing has proven to be a bit of a non winner, he really did pull away from him after the line in that race which indicates to me he could have gone further. Dont like much else. Pattie Me Lass, True Gold, Phenomenal Anemone.

Suggested Bet: Pattie Me Lass each way at the $4 available.

Race 2:

We'll gloss over the two year olds. Theoria started under the odds at her only start and just got there on the line over Saturday Skies, who has run well since. Your Buy was blocked for a run behind Wombie's Legacy while Rebelson ran on well at Northam. Nunca Terindas ran well first up before failing in the Sires. Nothing to get too excited about here, the favourite will probably win again. Theoria, Your Buy, Rebelson

No Bet.

Race 3:

This is a great little race with Born To Excel the early market mover from $5.50 to $4.20. The colt raced well over summer, culminating in a placing behind Night War in the Lee Steere. Thats class enough to win this and the two trials should see him fit enough. Elusive Image is back after 6 or 7 weeks between runs. I think he's a lay in this. Just Wicked has run well at two runs back, not suited first up when running on over the 1000m, then handling his midweek assignment easily. He'll need to improve again, but can do at the 1300m. The 59kg is the concern. There are plenty of other chances, Rantorini, Demimonde, Pure Heaven, Ave The Snip and the sneaky Ziva Star down the bottom. Her two runs have been excellent, particularly last time out when she was four wide and kept coming. Dont like Mendicity despite the blinkers going on. Born to Excel, Just Wicked, Ziva Star.

Suggested Bet: Born to Excel each way at the $4 and spec each way on Ziva Star at $26.

Race 4:

The 1000m dash has plenty of that.  Pillow time, Freetime and Right Time will ensure they run.......well, time! Throw Texan into the mix and you've got a scamper. This will set it  up for Megem's Boy, Full Clip and the winner, Sweet Serenity. She's the one that can run low 33 sectionals. The only issue is if she drifts back too far, but the Pontiff should see to that. Megem's Boy doesn't go a yard over the 1000m, but he is very good at that distance. Forget his last run, he'll be in the mix here. Freetime has the pacifiers off and Chatfield back on so expect him to blaze in front but he could do anything and end up anywhere. If he goes straight, he's a chance despite the speed they'll run this at. Texan will probably sit here. Ive knocked him his last two so I'll do it again (he has to get beaten eventually?). Right Time is also a lay. Pillow Time should get the same run she did last time and the 1000m suits her again. Sweet Serenity, Megem's Boy, Pillow Time.

Suggested Bet: Sweet Serenity each way at $4 but we'll be biting our fingernails at the 200m mark!

Race 5:

It looks like a wide open staying race, but I have it skinny. Cyber Crime was ridden very patiently last start and just missed over the mile. He was well in front just after the post and the 2100m looks like it will suit. First up at Northam he was dominant and Bentonian has franked that form. Take the $4.20 as it wont be there on race day. Boy Mambo was the best run of the race behind Aitchison. He sat wide and kept coming on the line where Aitchison and Black Moment had the good runs. They can feature again aswell. Leoluck is a 3yo stepping up to 2100m. As a bookie, you have to lay him at the price despite his impressive effort in the midweeks. Before that, he just held off Scotland the Brave, who surely is an out and out stayer. I dont think he was particularly well ridden last time out (Scotland) and if they kick along here (Luminol, Hawkeye Mort, Majestic Boy), he could knock them all out. Sound Barrier is sacked. Watch the market Once A Week. She's a nice stayer and blinkers have gone on, but her last run was woeful. Cyber Crime, Boy Mambo, Scotland the Brave. Im taking a guess that Leoluck will not stay.

Suggested Bet: Cyber Crime each way at the $4.20.

Race 6:

We went all out for Pin Rouge last time against Almachino and copped it up the blurter. Almachino sprinted past him and he fought back to go down just over a length. Same goes here, if he leads and rolls, he can figure, but I probably have to pass as Parnham always rides him too slow. Come Party and Mr Moet are probably the two to beat. The former won a comically run race, even though the slow pace didnt suit him. Mr Moet has been faultless this campaign, but has to carry almost 60kg. Raucous Laughter ran a great follow up to his win by lumping 60kg to run 5th to Texan. His form is outstanding. Kim Classic is too hard to catch. Talent Show and Greatwall of China are chances here aswell although I should sack the latter. Come party, Mr Moet, Pin Rouge.

No Bet

Race 7:

Luckygray returns afer an outstanding, and lucky, campaign last spring. Enough has been said about the Railway so we wont go there again. He looks primed for a first up effort after an impressive trial. Last time, the Grand Final was a bit further off and as a result, his first up win was "just a win". He'll be hard to beat in this with that explosive turn of foot. Dont underestimate Grand Nirvana however. He's a weight for age specialist and goes enormous first up. There is no D Staeck or P Hall here however, which tips the scales in favour of Luckygray. I give Avante the best chance of upsetting, even though that is unlikely. Cant have Our Ol Fella or Zester under these conditions. The only pace is really Late Night Flight. This might favour Grand Nirvana who is more likely to race forward than Luckygray. Luckygray, Grand Nirvana, Avante.

No bet, but a great race to watch.

Race 8:

Its an even bunch in a hard race for the last, outside of Full Steam Ahead. It was an outstanding win last time and Harvey grabbed a handful of horse as he crossed the line. Full Steam could have won by 2-3 lens if given full steam. The key will be slotting in from the barrier. Two starts ago, he made a meal of it, last start he was a genius. Im suggesting enough pace out wide here to spread the field out and Harvey is the master at dropping them in. A Cheatin Smile, Wizaway, Capricous Lad and Zed Magic can all go forward. With any luck, the favourite will win and the punters will probably rally given P Harvey is aboard. Dont be surprised if he doesnt start in the twos. Its a raffle amonst the rest. Ill go Full Steam Ahead, Devilish Intent, Mighty Rossa (dependent on whether he runs in this and who goes aboard). He found trouble at his last two runs, but he is a bit of a non winner.

Suggested Bet: I think Full Steam Ahead will be too short so we'll spec on Wizaway at the $51 after a good trial.