Belmont tips 2nd June

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 2 June, 2012

Race 1:

At first glance it looks like a Chester Road charity race but if Knuckey tries to slow them up and outsprint Mr Moet, he might be surprised just as he was last time against I Don't Recall. With no pace here now, Knuckey will have to lead and his best chance is setting an even clip. Either way, Mr Moet has returned in great form and can oustprint here. Ill go that way, Mr Moet, Chester Road and Lady Sea is a distant third pick.

Suggested Bet: Mr Moet if they go back to $3 or better, but $4.20 has already been bet.

Race 2:

With no Late Night Flight, Mabel Grace will lead here and is by far the classier animal. Brother Patrick has been in great form at Kalgoorlie and will take on the listed winner with only 51kg. He's a chance to upset. Now with little other pace, Cohort will probably struggle as he has for both starts this campaign. Wait for a race with some decent speed and he can improve. I'm not sure Greatwall of China will go forward again here with Mabel Grace in the race. Mabel Grace, Brother Patrick and Cohort.

Suggested Bet: Mabel Grace at anywhere near evens.

Race 3:

Its another competitive two year old race which on face value, doesnt look to have any top liners engaged. Having said that, the Snitzel gelding Dominating and the Miller trained War Prince could emerge from the pack. Saturday Skies has done nothing wrong but has to carry the weight yet again. Angry Squatter has had the cruellest cut and really underperformed in his first campaign after blistering in a trial. Field of Valour is the pick on breeding, Elusive Quality from Born Priceless, but has done nothing special at the trials. Hussars could also bob up after failing second up. Dominating, War Prince, Park Lane.

No Bet.

Race 4:

This is probably the best race of the day. When the outsider of the field (Pegatrick) has won his last two in a row, you know its a decent form race. Scorn Saxon will start the clear favourite here and her first up win was dominant. There are plenty of chances to beat her however. Stacks On goes extremely well fresh and is drawn to get the pie run behind the pace of Pure Adrenalin and Paratonnerre. The Park Dancer was outstanding in his trial, sitting wide and easily accounting for Precious Snippets, which will start short in a later race. He can possie up on the speed and if Paratonnerre decides to sit, may even be left outside the leader. Lord Balthazar, Pass The Magic and You Say So all have claims with a frenetic pace up front. Beware however if Pure Adrenalin comes out as he has drawn well for a race on Wednesday. This will change the pace of the race and the backmarkers may be disadvantaged. Scorn Saxon, Stacks On, The Park Dancer.

No Bet.

Race 5:

Precious Snippets is a very smart animal. Pike made a blunder by handing up the lead in a disgracefully slowly run race back in November at Ascot. She was still too smart that day, but would have won each start by daylight if not for that ride. Her trial was good enough without the blinkers and she'll win this barring bad luck. Red Mercedes once again sat wide but was too good with Hall in the saddle last time out. He must carry 59.5kg this time, which he'll struggle to do. I have him clear second best. Silver Trader has had his chances. McScar has claims, as does Thyme for Business, who goes extremely well fresh. Navarda Lad also had his chances last start and was beaten comprehensively by the top weight. Rocking The Blues is the smokey provided the pace goes on. Theres not a great deal evident however outside of Dante's Last  and McScar. Precious Snippets, Red Mercedes, Rocking The Blues.

Suggested Bet: Precious Snippets, take the $2.80.

Race 6:

Solsay has a cloud hanging over it and will have to overcome blood tests to even start. Despite this, it has firmed from $6 to $4.60 on most books. Diener has rated this horse perfectly for his last two wins, punching out good enough time not to be outsprinted. She has had very little pressure however at those two starts and will have to cross Dante's Diamond here. If Dante's hands up the easy lead, Solsay must be a strong chance again. Caves Road will be the favourite and has rarely flattered first up. This time, without a trial, the $3.60 on offer is under the odds although he is a very good horse on his day.

Alternatively, Moneghetti is a demon first up. He failed in his first ever race, then blotted his record last campaign with two poor runs. Outside of that, he has never been beaten first up. The three marble is a slight concern as he will probably drift back, but if Mallyon can get him off heels early enough, he can blow this open.

Dante's Diamond is dropping in class. If he decides to kick up and hold out Solsay, I give him less chance than if he hands up and sits third the fence. If the latter happens, he's a good winning chance and it will probably leave Kens Double in the breeze.

Miss Tipsy Topsy had well documented viral issues last campaign. Her trial was average and I cant make any sort of case for her at this trip and first up. Timely Reign had no luck last time out and is capable of upsetting here, as is Follow The Road, but again the one barrier is a concern.

Moneghetti is the big value in this race. He gets in well at the weights with Mallyon aboard, goes extremely well first up, and trialed well. Dante's Diamond and Caves Road for the minors. Solsay can definitely win with the right run, but I'll leave him out with a few question marks this week.

Suggested Bet: Moneghetti each way at the $7 available.

Race 7:

There were a number of hard luck stories behind Miss Vinnoire last start. She'll have to overcome the wide barrier this week, which she can do, but it will be decidedly tougher. Playcidium Mint was a good run first up after a year off the scene and ran around in the top 3yo races in her season. Even Astar showed some cheek last start, kicking away, but really stopped badly late. Private Dance was another that had no luck after a  year off the scene. Put a line through the run. We saw more of Playcidium Mint first up, but Private Dance definitely has the ability to win a race like this and nearly toppled Big Hold Up in her 3yo year. Saezuri was another that was driven into dead ends the whole straight behind Terminado. Once Cool Queen was an eyecatching run in the same race, but she's under the odds as a result. Playcidium Mint, Private Dance, Miss Vinnoire.

Suggested Bet: Each Way Playcidium Mint, small spec each way on Private Dance.

Race 8:

A wide open race to finish the day. Pin Rouge just went to slow last time, allowing Almachino to sprint away and put the race beyond doubt after straightening. They only averaged 12.4 secs per furlong for the first 800m, which was slow enough to hand Almachino the race. That same scenario shouldnt happen here with Texan  and I'm Here to Win engaged and Almachino drawn wide. Pin Rouge will no doubt go harder here and pressure Texan up front. There are a few swoopers including Almachino, Fortescue Flyer, Daintree Road and Our Larrikin but I like Metalman of all of those. He had no luck last time out with Carbery aboard and if O'Donnell can bring him wide for a single effort, he's good enough to win. Pin Rouge is a chance again, provided he rolls along. He took ground again off Almachino after being well and truly outsprinted early in the straight. Knightlike, Nomad and Trustee Brown I prefer to see for a run before considering. Our Larrikin was an enormous run behind Red Mercedes without any luck, but he has sucked me in before. Metalman, Almachino, Texan.

No Bet.