Tips for Belmont Sprint Day - 9th June

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 8 June, 2012

Race 1:

It looks an open affair to start the day with plenty of question marks. Pennywood won well in the midweeks but there was no early pace that day, even though she did all the work out wide. Military Hero had his chance to beat her. Top Stuff was a dreadful run first up after impressing in the spring, one of those runs a nose second to Luke's Luck. Topper's Halo and Satan on His Head also chances here. Wombie's Legacy and Your Buy would both be well in the market here but for their wide gates. The latter in particular hasn't been afforded an easy run yet and the riding change to O'Donnell is significant. I'll spec on Top Stuff even though neither O'Donnell or McCallum have taken the mount, Your Buy and Pennywood.

No Bet.

Race 2:

The mile is a good race with some of my enthusiasm dampened by the lack of pace. This race could turn into anything! Come Flirt with me could be the leader with blinkers added and Kyra Yuill to ride. MIghty Rossa finally made it back to the winners circle last time out and as impressive as he was, I cant be taking the $3.50 this week. Come Party disappointed and was the first horse gone while Raucous Laughter had the race shot to pieces before being trounced by Mighty Rossa. Im guessing the mile is his absolute limit. Knightlike is the class here. Harvey goes on and with any decent pace (which there may not be), he'll be the one overpowering them.The run behind Texan first up was excellent and the mile will suit. Can't recommend Trustee Brown or Mutawarath. Knightlike, Mightly Rossa, Raucous Laughter.

Suggested bet: Knightlike each way at the $5.

Race 3:

There will be a stack of pace in this 1000m dash via Right Time, Gotham City, Dante's Diamond and Pillow Time. I think this will set it up for the likes of Megem's Boy and Sweet Serenity. On face value, I thought Sweet Serenity was disappointing last time out however, given they ran the first 400m in 24.44, it was understandable Sweet Serenity couldnt pick up the leader. As it was she ran a sectional of 33.09 which is blistering. With more pace up front here, she's the one to beat but Ive said it before, she'll be a long way back with 200m to go! Megem's Boy has proven he's a great little 1000m horse and he gets in here on 53kg. Pateman hasnt ridden before so he'll have to pull out one of his best rides. Ive forgiven Pillow Time her last effort and she'll possie right behind the speed, much like she did at her previous win. Gotham City may also pull out of the speed battle and take a sit. Right Time got it easy last start and may not lead here. I think he's a lay. Dante's Diamond disappointed behind Solsay in an evenly run race. Back to 1000m here but I'll leave her. Sweet Serenity, Megem's Boy, Pillow Time.

Suggested Bet: Sweet Serenity each wat at $5 and save on Megem's Boy at $8.

Race 4:

A staying race with a couple of classy runners. I really cant see the winner coming from outside of Mr Moet, Cyber Crime and Majestic Boy. Mr Moet has to contend with the barrier and apprentice Ben Paterson here. Hall did everything possible last week to overhaul the classy Chester Road and only just missed. Paterson will have to be riding a career best to win this one. The only pace is Majestic Boy and Black Moment. Given the latter failed dismally leading last time out, I think they'll give that tactic away. Majestic Boy was nosed out by Leoluck and Cyber Crime two weeks back but meets Cyber Crime worse at the weights. Cyber Crime looked to have the race won. Carbery had to go early as his horse was bolting prior to straightening. Im not sure if he peaked due to the distance or was perhaps a run short? He has won over 2500m over east so we'll guess he's fitter for the run and go that way. Galinba Blast wasnt a bad run last time out, as per Sound Barrier, but the latter is non winner. Cyber Crime, Mr Moet, Majestic Boy. If the kid rides Majestic Boy well, he's the value here.

Suggested Bet: small each way on Majestic Boy.

Race 5:

An outstanding race of 3yo's over the 1400m. The class seems to be on paper Born To Excel after the Just Wicked scratching. He fought out the last encounter with Just Wicked but horses like Elusive Image, Rantorini and Accelerometer were right on their heels and had less luck. Having said that, there's little or no pace here. I think Born To Excel will go forward and perhaps Black Uma . Checkpoint comes from a different formline and should have won his first two races after being gelded. He was most impressive last time out, sitting three wide and overpowering them. Rantorini and Elusive Image may get back with no speed here so I have to risk them. Accelarometer was the best run from the Just Wicked race and wont have to go so far back in this race. Soo Auspicious was a massive run in the midweeks, but the barrier may trip him up again. Born to Excel, Accelerometer, Elusive Image.

Suggested Bet: small each way Accelerometer at the $14+

Race 6:

Capricious Lad has finally drawn a barrier after having to work at almost every start this campaign. The only time he drew well, he won. Devilish Intent had the run of the race to beat him but meets him better at the weights and will probably get the pie run again. Monumental trialed well but I'll risk him first up from 10. Dangerously is a dangerous bet from 1 as he'll get back the fence. Dont Say Boo was terrible first up but can improve at big odds. Rocky's Brother has to carry 58kg, something he has not done in this class of race. Capricious Lad, but with reservations that he's due to put in a bad one, Devilish Intent, Monumental.

No bet.

Race 7:

Whichever way you look at this race, Luckygray has to be the short priced favourite. The Roma Cup win was too dominant and the main chances against him that day looked ordinary, particularly Grand Nirvana. He'll have to improve on facing the breeze and fading to third. Our Ol Fella and Cavallo Pazzo, while in great form, are not our top line sprinters. Hadabeclorka took off before acceptors last start and it cost him a place. Ridden more patiently, that gives him a great place chance in this. I'd prefer to see Colour Correct after 18 months off the scene. His trials were ok, but a Group 3 with the pressure on is a far cry from trials. Avante probalby should have won first up if not for missing the start. She's second best for me in this and has an equally good second up card. Luckygray, Avante, Hadabeclorka.

Suggested Bet: Place on Hadabeclorka at about the $8.

Race 8:

Another scorcher to finish the day. Thunderluv'n, Excelorada, Master Force, Valiance and the Puzzler can all add top end speed. I think Valiance will be the one to lead with either The Puzzler or Master Force coming to his outside. I come back to three horses here. The two main chances are Thunderluv'n and Demimonde, who will sit right behind the speed. The former was unlucky not to win a few more races last time in work but will get a nice suck run here. Demimonde the same and is suited much better at 1000m. Valiance has obvious problems but his first up run in April, after almost 2 years out of racing, was outstanding. It took Megem's Boy to overpower him and he wasnt giving it away. Forrest will allow him to speed and the $26 on offer is great value. Excelorada has had every hope and will have to jump from 11 against a tougher field. Master Force was a great run from back off the pace last time out but I think the others mentioned are classier. Demimonde, Thunderluvn, Valiance.

Suggested Bet: each way Demimonde, small each way on Valiance. Thunderluv'n may end up being too short but a good each way bet if you like him.