Belmont Tips 30th June

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 29 June, 2012

Race 1:

The two year old race will trim right down to six if Dueton comes out, which it probably will after running on Wednesday. It looks like a match race between the two speedsters, El Rijes and Passion Cantata. Both trialed impressively and in fast times. I give Songburg some chance of upsetting if they cut throats off the back of his soft win at Northam. As a bookie, thats the way I'll go, laying the two faves and crossing my fingers! El Rijes, Passion Cantata, Songburg.

No Bet

Race 2:

I did think Mr Moet could topple Chester Road but now he is out, that leaves Mr Moet the likely winner. Talent Show was close to the best run behind Chester Road last time out, chasing a good pace and sticking on well. Cohort probably third best. Mr Moet, Talent Show, Cohort.....bad race.

No Bet

Race 3:

A bit of madness around pre-post betting in this race with Capricious Lad opening at $2.80 and Fortescue Flyer $8.50. Now my old boss used to tell me "you can't eat value son", and I know exactly what he means. Rarely when they bet huge overs, do they get up! Capricious Lad will get the easy lead, but will he get the mile? Fortescue Flyer is the one to beat and Miss Tipsy Topsy the danger up to a more suitable distance. Ancient Spell was also a good run last time out but will need a genuine pace as he's a bit one paced. Fortescue Flyer, Miss Tipsy Topsy, Capricious Lad.

Suggested Bet: Fortescue Flyer each way.

Race 4:

This is a pretty good race for 3yo's. Born To Excel will start the short priced favourite. He disappointed me at his first two runs, peaking on his effort both times. I do believe he's better ridden aggressively so they might press forward here. Stacks On was a little unlucky and ran a better race last start. Shady Bet was also a good return two weeks back. Lord Hatras was over the odds at $41 but that has been taken. Always a chance in these races and with Hall aboard, even moreso. Stacks On, Born To Excel, Lord Hatras.

Suggested Bet: Stacks On, $10 is a good price.

Race 5:

Morning Mist had no second up for Harvey. Not only did she sit wide but was unbalanced turning. Despite all that, I thought she'd stick on a bit better. Even Astar is improving. Playcidium Mint had no luck either and double figures is over the odds in this field. My roughie is Private Dance, 3 and 4 wide throughout last start and hit the front 200m out. She can win on her best form. Lets take a punt on Playcidium Mint, Private Dance and Morning Mist.

Suggested Bet: Playcidium Mint and Private Dance, both at odds.

Race 6:

This is the race of the day. Belora, Will To Win, Bombora, Excelorada, Precious Snippets and Thunderluvn all have great chances. I like Belora first up, with blinkers added after the trial. Will To Win the same off a very good trial win. Bombora should go forward but his tendency to over race worries me. Precious Snippets is probably the most progressive in this field. Her last win was classy but this is a fair step up in class. Thunderluvn might get the easy lead in this and was desperately unlucky last start. Ill put an order here for  the sake of it, but I have them all very close together: Thunderluvn, Precious Snippets, Belora, Will To Win.

No Bet.

Race 7:

Frenchman....what happened to Frenchman? It was quite an incredible run last week, missing the start and shizizzling home to win with a few legs in the air. I dont really like him at the mile with his tendency to over race but this is such a weak field. I'd be tipping Saezuri with some conviction if there were some pace here, but there's not. Carla is the sneaky one from Kal and take a look at Dean Nazzari's strike rate. Galinba Blast can also improve at the mile, he's just not a stayer. Tough race Saezuri, Frenchman, Carla.

Suggested Bet: have a little spec on Carla, must be going ok to bring to town.

Race 8:

Tough race to finish off on. Im going for Incoherent as I thought the trial was very good and he's just one of my horses! Statements is another that has grown 2 legs since late last year. With any luck last week, he probably beats Precious Snippets, who will start favourite in the sixth. I have them close together, so take your pick if you like either. Outside of those you could toss up for Military Secret, Nomad, Money for Cash or Secret Ruler for third. Ill tip Incoherent, Statements, Nomad.

Suggested Bet: Incoherent each way, save on Statements.