Belmont Tips 21st July

Matt Rigby | Fri 20 July, 2012

Race 1:

This is a seriously dangerous race to get involved in. Fair Hunter and Hibernian, swap jockeys with Hibernian off a trial and a two month gap. Moneghetti is not a genuine stayer, but this may not be run like a genuine staying race and he'll probably lead and sprint them home.  Cohort has had his chances, but could upset one of these days. I have the three, Hibernian, Fair Hunter and Moneghetti neck and neck but we'll go for the best stayer, Hibernian.

Suggested Bet: couldn't recommend.

Race 2:

I loved the trials of Reverend Lovejoy. He usually needs a few runs to hit his peak, but seems to be primed for this. Gum Nut Guru was a terrible run last time out, but will get a great run here behind Late Night Flight and cant be dismissed. Fortescue Flyer can improve with the blinkers, but I've sacked him. Miss Tipsy Topsy will get back and will need luck to get off the fence. Ill knock her. Reverend Lovejoy, Gum Nut Guru, Miss Tipsy Topsy.

Suggested Bet: Reverend Lovejoy each way, check the market though.

Race 3:

Hard Ball Get was impressive first up and I cant go past that dominant win. Although drawn wide, one of his main dangers, Songburg, is drawn wider. The best chance of beating what I expect to be the short priced favourite, is Flying Time. His last two runs were excellent, the last run leading and winning well at Punjarra. I dont think El Rijes will get a strong 1300m.  Hard Ball Get, Flying Time, Songburg.

Suggested Bet: Hard Ball Get at $3 or better.

Race 4:

Good pace in this race via Democratism, Black Uma and even Amusement park should allow Geiger Rio the perfect run just behind the speed. While I dont think his last run was overly impressive, he looks a horse that is still learning his trade and has a lot of upside. Black Uma is a little one paced and may not appreciate the sharper trip of 1200m. Shady Bet has done nothing wrong, in fact has been unlucky but has to back up here. Democratism, likewise, could get a soft lead if Black Uma decides not to pressure. I have the top three very close, but banking on some improvement from Geiger Rio. Geiger Rio, Democratism, Shady Bet.

Suggested Bet: Geiger Rio each way.

Race 5:

There is no genuine speed in this race, which makes it a tough one. We're in the hands of the jocks, which is a dangerous place to be! Acheatin Smile and Ancient Spell are really the only two that can go forward. It might turn into a sprint home. November Red should box seat and has been impressive this campaign. Even with the 60kg, he can win. Svara has been a bit unlucky, but will need even more luck here with 59kg and no pace. Pattie Me Lass can also possie up and the 1600m suits better than the 2000m of last start. Electioneer is the smokey with 51kg down the bottom.November Red, Ancient Spell, Svara.

No Bet.

Race 6:

It looks like a dead set race in two on paper, and it probably is. Operational looks like the best stayer and Rantorini has a bit of brilliance. This will not be run like a genuine staying race, which brings them pretty close together. Rantorini is well and truly at rock bottom odds now but should get the perfect run while Harvey is going to have to use all his smarts on Operational from barrier 10 with no apparent pace. The only chances of upset I can see are Shoot for Glory and Confianza, and they are slim chances. Riverbank Frank should probably lead, but I dont think that's Turner's go. Five Inch Heels at a million to one can go better without the blinkers. Operational, Rantorini, Shoot for Glory.

No Bet.

Race 7:

A number of handy horses here that have shown better form in previous campaigns. I'll stick with Iseethingsyoudont who was unraced before this campaign, but just seems to improve every start. McGruddy is away, which is a slight negative. Miss Dandy needs to lead or breeze and her last run was ordinary sitting, but she might get posted here. Master Marlon was a much better trial after disappointing last campaign. The smokey here is Angel Wing. Two unlucky runs at Pinjarra and still managed to win one of them. Whiting goes on which I see as a positive. The $31 is over the odds. Voluminous goes well fresh but does look a big fellow and may not appreciate the inside draw. Hallowell Express with the pontiff on board has a decent chance also. Iseethingsyoudont, Angel Wing, Hallowell Express.

Suggested bet: Angel Win each way.

Race 8:

Just Wicked looks the one here. She was stretched out toe 2000m last week, but I think the 1400m to mile is her best distance. She was unlucky, getting back too far against the older horses the previous start when running second to Numerous Secrets. All the early money is for her and she's drawn to win. Yallingup ran a corker first up last campaign before something ended is campaign early. He's a chance here . Dont like Sweet Serenity at the 1400m. Pike back onto Morning MIst gives her a decent chance, but the barrier will make it tough. McScar was ridden poorly last time out, handing up to Texan. He needs to be ridden at a decent clip and put the pressure on early, which Staples is more likely to do than Knuckey. A smokey if ridden right. Nomad had his chance last two runs for mine. Just Wicked, McScar, Morning Mist.

Suggested Bet: Just Wicked each way and a little speck on Mcscar.