Ascot 28th January - Winners & Losers

Perth Turf Talk | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 27 January, 2017

Race 1 

Why They Win - Achernar Star 

Ultra impressive debut win as an early 2 year old when sitting three deep throughout to score over Little Hercules. Immediately tipped out for a spell and is now back to contest the juvenile features. Should box seat and the $2.50 on offer is the right price. 

Why They Lose - Debellation 

Not saying Debellation can't win because anyone who has bothered to watch the trials will be spruiking the Smart Missile colt. Both trial victories coming from well off the speed have been eye catching but his tendency to miss the kick could prove troublesome from barrier 1. He is the main, and possibly only danger, however, at $2.10 is under the odds. 

 

Race 2 

Why They Win - Undisclosed 

Has opened up in fixed markets around the $2.50 mark and I expect plenty of punters to take that price with open arms. Smashed the clock down the Pinjarra straight and could easily kick through to hold them all out or take a sit. She is an exciting type and looks primed to continue the undefeated start to her career. 

Why They Lose - Gee Boss 

On paper looked a very nice bet first up at Pinjarra when duly saluting but now drawn barrier 7 with a few noted speedsters drawn inside and a three kilo claiming apprentice taking the ride for the first time it's hard to see Gee Boss finding a position better than outside the lead and potentially gets planted three deep throughout. Talented type but willing to risk from that gate. 

 

Race 3 

Why They Win - Our Maori Boy 

Is a 16 start maiden and will probably be a 17 start maiden after the weekend, however, he has probably put more good runs in than a lot of these. If he has to drift to an $8 or $9 quote then I would consider having a couple of dollars on him purely for interest sake in a heinous metro maiden. 

Why They Lose - Blue Tracer 

Has come up very short in markets around the $6 mark. More than happy to take him on at that price. Trials were only fair before putting in a grinding run first-up over 1200m. Trade Search ran a much more encouraging race than him in the same event and has come up at $51. 

 

Race 4 

Why They Win - Pinzu

Has produced two super impressive wins at Ascot this preparation split by a forgive and forget run at Pinjarra inbetween where he was never a hope back in the field trying to weave through traffic. Last start safely accounted for Sasso's Circus and I doubt the 2kg weight swing will be enough to turn the tables. 

Why They Lose - Sasso's Circus 

Only beat moderate opposition in a midweek 60+ when afforded every possible favour including both W.Pike and the cutaway. Should get a lovely run just off the strong pace anticipated from Gloryland but seems to stuggle in this grade and may have reached his mark. 

 

Race 5 

Why They Win - Durendal 

Has been completely luckless at both starts in WA after crossing with genuine Group and Listed Eastern States form to his name. His 7 career wins have all come at 1200m and beyond so expect to see the best run yet from Durendal. There is a possibility we could see him race closer to the speed from the awkward alley in an attempt to avoid traffic. 

Why They Lose - Kings Troop 

Is still only a class 1 galloper and clearly the second stringer of the Gangemi team. While he keeps picking up minor cheques at this level I am certain the ownership group can not wait to see him unleashed on 72+ grade where he would carry only 55kg. Sure to win plenty of races in the West but doubt it will be the Scenic Blast. 

 

Race 6 

Why They Win - Bergantina 

Has really turned a corner since stepping up to a middle distance this preparation. Broke a long run of outs over 1800m in one of the weakest races to date, however, backed it up with a barnstorming display at Pinjarra. If he can position one off the fence midfield with cover then should be in the finish at an eachway price. 

Why They Lose - Jetoomy 

Certainly did not rate at the favourite in my market, in fact came up around the $7 mark. Justin and Lucy Warwick are rapidly returning to form and so is Jetoomy but this gate makes it incredibly awkward in a large field. The $4.60 on offer for Macavity, $9 for I Done It, $15 for Quite Regal and $6 for Bergantina all appeal much more than Jetoomy. 

 

Race 7 

Why They Win - Majinika 

Was an emphatic first up winner last preparation and has been pushed out at both trials to win. Looks as though he is primed for another first-up assault and this is very winnable. Progressive galloper who most expected would come back bigger and better than last preparation, here's hoping we were right. 

Why They Lose - Key To Fame 

Ultra consistent type who has become quite one dimentional. He needs to lead to win and with a fresh on-speed type like All Too Much resuming off 100 days without a trial he will probably struggle to cross. Couple that with Du Plessis pressing forwards and it looks as though Key To Fame will again be a sitting duck out in front. 

 

Race 8 

Why They Win - Red Publisher 

Came up equal favourite in my markets with Settlers Creek at $4.80 with Candlelight Star just behind them at $5.50. I could not and can not believe there is $11 on offer at each and every corporate bookmaker and I'll fill my wallet full of eachway tickets at that price. Quality win at Pinjarra before tackling a sharp 72+ 1000m where he was run off his feet coming home in 33.79. Should enjoy an economical run in transit and give backers a big sight at the eachway overs. 

Why They Lose - Dezzies Dream 

Is in single figures care of the cerise and white sashes he carries. First up win was impressive but he could not have got a softer run. Second-up scrambled at the start and settled further back than expected. Steps up to 1400m for the first time in Australia, a distance he struggled with in New Zealand. No Pike, query at the trip, query the form and question the price. 

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