In this Discussion
- [DeletedUser] July 2011
- BREAKA July 2011
- carey July 2011
- Coldy July 2011
- danish July 2011
- Dark July 2011
- darkshines July 2011
- dungy July 2011
- goose July 2011
- H-BOMBER July 2011
- hollda09 July 2011
- keymeup July 2011
- LarkhillLarrikin July 2011
- pluger July 2011
- TheDiva July 2011
- thefalcon July 2011
- TheFunkster July 2011
- TorpedoPunt July 2011
- vlahs July 2011
- Vorgtraffic July 2011
- woody July 2011
Who's Online
0 Members & 366 Non Members
Comments
Last season he was -7.4% however
All the stats are from R&S
dunno, depends on what an a/e stat is :lol:
it depends on who joe public is doesn't it?
there are joes and then there are joes.
one lot of joes will find any errors the other joes make, and make the final price much more accurate than it otherwise would have been.
you only need to check it yourself to prove that is true, provided you have all the TAB divvies.
Anyway, judging by the number of rides - the stats i posted cover provincial meetings as well i think which could explain the difference
Ok
Here is pikes stat for 10/11 at belmont only (sample size of 188 rides)
-4.8%
yuills stat for 10/11 at belmont only (sample size of 170 rides)
-27.4%
read it and weep!!! :lol:
i will believe my own records every time, because i know the detail that went into making the data.
r&s on the other hand i would never trust the detail of. :D
but, i would not doubt that pike is better than yuill overall, BUT, pike is grossly OVERBET
so to summarise.....i read it and wept.....................for others! :lol: :lol: :lol:
The A/E index is an enhanced impact value type stat which can also be used instead of the ROI stat. The A stands for Actual whilst the E stands for Expected and thus the stat shows the index of actual winners to expected winners. Calculating an index this way shows 'value' and thus value bets, and value lays can be easily identified.
If a stat has 'more winners than expected' then we have found a good thing for backing. If a stat has 'less winners than expected' then we've found a weakness - an indicator of bad 'value' for betting purposes.
To calculate the A/E index you need to know the actual number of winners and the expected number of winners. The first part is easy as this is the number who actually won. Calculating the expected number of winners is a bit more tricky as you need to sum up the odds of all the runners.
First, calculate the probability or 'odds' of winning. This is not the odds of the horse such as 5/1 but the odds chance of 5/1. Use the following formula to work out the odds chance:
Odds of Winning = 1 / (Price + 1)
If a horse is Evens then his odds chance (or probability) of winning = 1 / (1 + 1) = 0.5
If a horse is 3/1 then his odds chance of winning = 1 / (3 + 1) = 0.25
Once you have calculated the odds of each runner you then add all those figures up to obtain the expected number of winners.
e.g. If we have 100 horses who went off at 3/1 then we would expect 25 of them to win. The odds of a 3/1 shot is 0.25 so adding all 100 of those together = 25.
i just used the normal distribution to figure it.
where i just normalise tab probs to 1 and then figured how many wins they should have had by totalling probabilty.
variance would be the sum of prob*(1-prob)
so expected wins, variance, actual wins are used to find the cumulative probabilty which is the f(x)
if f(x) =.5 they won how many they should have, over .5 means they win more than should have and less than .5 means they are overbet(or are crap riders).
it's just one of many ways to try and evaluate something, and not necessarily best.
bush chook - unfair stigma ensures great value for money
Darkshines, I think you've read "What Are The Odds" by Bill Waterhouse.
I'm reading atm, I'm mesmerised by it...go and grab a copy, boys..you won't be able to put it down.
I told Diva that after he finishes it he will feel like hopping on a plane to Sydney just so he can shake the great mans hand, before he goes to that celestial settling room.
Was in a box at the footy on Sat and arrived to find the pre-ordered eskies were stocked with Corona and Carlton Mid. So I had a water and waited for some decent beer to arrive :wink: :lol: