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Melbourne Cup 2011 discussion

East Coast Racing

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  • ElitistElitist    366 posts
    Similar thing happened last year with a different corporate. They closed the win market but not the place market so got 100 on Maluckyday at $11 a place immediately after it won the Lexus. This time I found a market open Niwot 101 the win and 26 the place. Really cant see it winning so backed it place only, in hindsight i shoulda dabbled with the 101 and then layed it off.
    +1 -1
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    edited October 2011
    Barrier draw and final field, (barriers listed in brackets)

    1 AMERICAIN(15) Gerald Mosse 58.0 Alain de Royer Dupre
    2 JUKEBOX JURY(6) Neil Callan 57.0 Mark Johnston
    3 DUNADEN no jockey yet (13) 54.5 Mikel Delzangles
    4 DRUNKEN SAILOR(8 ) (BLKS) Dwayne Dunn 54.0 Luca Cumani
    5 GLASS HARMONIUM(23) Lisa Cropp 54.0 Michael Moroney
    6 MANIGHAR(21) (BLKS) Damien Oliver 54.0 Luca Cumani
    7 UNUSUAL SUSPECT no jockey yet (7) 54.0 Michael Kent
    8 FOX HUNT(19) Silvestre De Sousa 53.5 Mark Johnston
    9 LUCAS CRANACH(11) Corey Brown 53.5 Anthony Freedman
    10 MOURAYAN(14) (BLKS) Hugh Bowman 53.5 Robert Hickmott
    11 PRECEDENCE(2) (BLKS) Darren Beadman 53.5 Bart Cummings
    12 RED CADEAUX(16) Michael Rodd 53.5 Ed Dunlop
    13 HAWK ISLAND(18 ) Glyn Schofield 53.0 Chris Waller
    14 ILLO(1) Jim Cassidy 53.0 Bart Cummings
    15 LOST IN THE MOMENT(3) William Buick 53.0 Saeed Bin Suroor
    16 MODUN(5) Kerrin McEvoy 53.0 Saeed Bin Suroor
    17 AT FIRST SIGHT(10) Steven King 52.5 Robert Hickmott
    18 MOYENNE CORNICHE(17) Brett Prebble 52.0 Brian Ellison
    19 SAPTAPADI(22) Chris Symons 52.0 Brian Ellison
    20 SHAMROCKER(24) Luke Nolen 52.0 Danny O'Brien
    21 THE VERMINATOR(4) (BLKS) Craig Newitt 52.0 Chris Waller
    22 TULLAMORE(12) Chris Munce 52.0 Gai Waterhouse
    23 NIWOT(9) Dean Yendall 51.0 Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
    24 OLDER THAN TIME(20) (BLKS) Tim Clark 51.0 Gai Waterhouse

    +1 -1
  • BrianBondBrianBond    11 posts
    I think the overseas horse will dominate.
    I would not be surprised to see them fill the 1st 6 places.
    However one thing that does concerns me is MR NEIL CALLAN, the postillion of Jukebox Jury.
    In our racing any one with the prefix "Mr" would indicate an amateur rider and if indeed he is a Gentleman Jockey, he will not be carrying any of mine.
    Anyone able to clarify?
    +1 -1
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    My googling says he has been around a while, has ridden in UK, HK, Qatar etc.
    +1 -1
  • tonytony    2,437 posts
    edited October 2011
    Neil Callan is a pretty good English jockey, certainly not an amateur.

    He does a fair bit of riding for the trainer Mark Johnston.

    In the last 12 months he has ridden 114 winners at a strike rate of 14%
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  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    Good luck to anyone going to Melbourne this week - Qantas has just grounded all aircraft until Monday!

    :shock:
    +1 -1
  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    Bloody union bastards!!!!! sack the lot of them
    +1 -1
  • TheFunksterTheFunkster    3,840 posts
    said:

    Bloody union bastards!!!!! sack the lot of them

    Yep, that and get rid of the Irishman running an Australian iconic company who makes a decision like that on Melb Cup eve.
    I'm due to fly over on Weds so hope it's all sorted by then.
    The VRC and Vic tourism in general will be fuming!
    +1 -1
  • TheFunksterTheFunkster    3,840 posts
    Lucas Cranach the horse to beat
    +1 -1
  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    said:

    Bloody union bastards!!!!! sack the lot of them


    perhaps you need to remove some of your bias dungy and tell it how it really is ....unless you know in the first place which i have no doubt you don't.
    +1 -1
  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    said:

    said:

    Bloody union bastards!!!!! sack the lot of them


    perhaps you need to remove some of your bias dungy and tell it how it really is ....unless you know in the first place which i have no doubt you don't.
    What just let them bring the country to a grinding holt ??
    Pitty for the poor bloke who is flying over to the Cup on Quantassss .
    Carey i dont want argue politics on a racing site and yes everyone deserves a payrise but its the way they have gone about it its stuffing the bloke on the street it needs to be sorted pronto
    +1 -1
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    Using this method last year, it selected the box trifecta of Americain, Maluckyday and So You Think.

    However it does not take into account the runners that haven't raced here, that is all personal opinion. It is rated on a dead track.

    Predicted finish order:

    JUKEBOX JURY
    ILLO
    NIWOT
    TULLAMORE
    MOURAYAN
    AMERICAIN
    LUCAS CRANACH
    FOX HUNT
    MODUN
    DRUNKEN SAILOR
    AT FIRST SIGHT
    GLASS HARMONIUM
    THE VERMINATOR
    DUNADEN
    HAWK ISLAND
    MANIGHAR
    LOST IN THE MOMENT
    MOYENNE CORNICHE
    RED CADEAUX
    OLDER THAN TIME
    UNUSUAL SUSPECT
    SAPTAPADI
    PRECEDENCE
    SHAMROCKER
    +1 -1
  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    said:

    said:

    said:

    Bloody union bastards!!!!! sack the lot of them


    perhaps you need to remove some of your bias dungy and tell it how it really is ....unless you know in the first place which i have no doubt you don't.
    What just let them bring the country to a grinding holt ??
    Pitty for the poor bloke who is flying over to the Cup on Quantassss .
    Carey i dont want argue politics on a racing site and yes everyone deserves a payrise but its the way they have gone about it its stuffing the bloke on the street it needs to be sorted pronto
    who grounded the planes?
    most blokes on the street whether they like unions or not would call it an act of bastardy by joyce.

    and it has nothing to do with politics and nor should it.
    +1 -1
  • perfectjetperfectjet    217 posts
    Its a very hard year to narrow my bets down so ive spresd my bets around all over the place. I actually feel like im cheating because the cup is about trying to pick the winner with one horse. But ive had a good last few weeks on the punt by my standards so ive had a lash on any number of runners. My mate matt smith did me a favor with hurtle myrtle yesterday too

    What ive done so far:

    88w jukebox jury at $12.

    40w, 20p moyenne corniche at $26

    10 eway saptapadi at $101 :P

    40w fox hunt at $26


    Still to follow:

    Something on unusual suspects. Maybe a 15 eway job.

    An exacta some how featuring all of the above plus...lucas cranache, americain, lost in the moment, modun. God knows how im going to afford and construct it LOL. I might have to put them in to groups and box them for a few bucks.

    I think ( at this stage) im leaving out dunaden and loyds horses. :D
    +1 -1
  • perfectjetperfectjet    217 posts
    B.prebble on moyenne cornish...thoughts?

    He's never been one of my jocks, but i remember when he won on just about everything at one flemington carnival about ten years ago. Forget which trainer that was for....was it david hall??

    Id much rather have m.zahra on ( rate him, love his style) but of course the weight meant he couldnt stick with moyenne.

    Just on moyenne fellas...his best performances are with cut out of the ground. Reading up on some uk print media and his winning jock in the ebor and trainer said that he got conditions to suit and thats what he needs. The rain will help this fella, his 2 wins from 26 sttarts leger might be a little deceiving.
    +1 -1
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    Agree PJ - I really like him, he has form on good/dead tracks, and he has had a run here, which was good coming home over the last 400m in a 2400m race. Barrier a concern, but should go back anyway.

    I think at around $26 he is in with a big chance!

    Weight special, been carrying 55-57kgs recently, gets 52kgs in the cup.

    Probably a place chance at best, but I'll have a little e/w on him!
    +1 -1
  • TheFunksterTheFunkster    3,840 posts
    said:

    Using this method last year, it selected the box trifecta of Americain, Maluckyday and So You Think.

    However it does not take into account the runners that haven't raced here, that is all personal opinion. It is rated on a dead track.

    Predicted finish order:

    JUKEBOX JURY
    ILLO
    NIWOT
    TULLAMORE
    MOURAYAN
    AMERICAIN
    LUCAS CRANACH
    FOX HUNT
    MODUN
    DRUNKEN SAILOR
    AT FIRST SIGHT
    GLASS HARMONIUM
    THE VERMINATOR
    DUNADEN
    HAWK ISLAND
    MANIGHAR
    LOST IN THE MOMENT
    MOYENNE CORNICHE
    RED CADEAUX
    OLDER THAN TIME
    UNUSUAL SUSPECT
    SAPTAPADI
    PRECEDENCE
    SHAMROCKER

    Doesn't count the runners that haven't started here yet you have JJ on top?
    +1 -1
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    By that, I mean it doesn't take into account the perceived belief that internationals must have a run here. That is for us all to make our own judgement.

    Vintage Crop (1993) the last international to win the Cup without having a run here. So it is strong form, that a run here is almost essential.
    +1 -1
  • rot8inrot8in    1,881 posts
    whats the track prediction?
    +1 -1
  • perfectjetperfectjet    217 posts
    said:

    whats the track prediction?

    Funny, listeni g to 2ky this morning and one of the panel was talking about some horse not getting the wet track it wants as the forecast is for no rain from now to tue. 20 mins later im talking to a trainer down there in melb and he says its raining and he thinks its going to be a rain effevted track on tue.

    I know melb weather is harder to pick than the race itself, but im the same...what surface are we looking at on tue? No one sems to have an idea.
    +1 -1
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    Sunday morning Mick Goody (not sure if that is how you spell his name) said he expected a Dead 4.

    Flemington can handle a lot of rain, but it'll all depend what happens between now and tomorrow morning.

    (Monday Forecast - Melbourne) Chance of any rain: 60% // Rainfall amount: 0 to 1 mm

    +1 -1
  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    said:

    said:

    whats the track prediction?

    Funny, listeni g to 2ky this morning and one of the panel was talking about some horse not getting the wet track it wants as the forecast is for no rain from now to tue. 20 mins later im talking to a trainer down there in melb and he says its raining and he thinks its going to be a rain effevted track on tue.

    I know melb weather is harder to pick than the race itself, but im the same...what surface are we looking at on tue? No one sems to have an idea.
    :lol: :lol: :lol:
    i looked out my window at the beautiful blue sky, then changed that quote of yours to red, and then looked out window again and now it's black and eerie as if a storm is about to hit,but give it another minute or two and the sunshine will be back!
    +1 -1
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,483 posts
    Told my better half I was selecting two that reminded me of our first meeting..... ah yes it was love.. At First Sight and I was Lost in the Moment. She loved it... then I ruined things by telling her she now has me by the Lucas Cranachs :oops:
    +1 -1
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts

    Flemington ? The track 24 hours out from Melbourne Cup day
    Clinton Payne
    Monday, 31 October 2011


    The Flemington track is expected to be rated a dead (4) on the morning of the 151st Melbourne Cup.

    On Monday morning, Flemington racecourse manager Mick Goodie reported the surface is rated a dead (5) but he expects the track to be upgraded before he puts out the official reading on Tuesday morning.

    "It?s a dead (5) and the penetrometer is 4.80 overall, 4.83 on the inside and outside in the straight,? Goodie said.

    "I?d reckon it will definitely be a dead (4) in the morning.

    "I?ll get the latest forecast this afternoon and do another penetrometer and go from there.?

    The Bureau of Meteorology forecast for Monday is a cloudy morning with isolated showers before becoming dry in the afternoon with sunny breaks developing. They have predicted a 60 percent chance of between 0-1 mm of rain.

    "The forecast is for a shower or two today but they are telling me there is very little in it,? he said.

    Goodie has moved the rail out into the traditional Melbourne Cup day position of three metres.

    "There?s hardly any damage to the track,? he said. "The rail goes out to the three-metre position.

    "I expect it to race pretty well.?

    UPDATE:

    Flemington racecourse manager Mick Goodie has upgraded the famous patch of grass to a dead (4) less than 24 hours out from the 151st Melbourne Cup.

    Goodie issued the dead (4) rating at around 3pm on Monday with the sun shining ahead in Melbourne.

    The forecast for Tuesday is a cloudy day with the chance of isolated showers from the late morning . The top temperature expected is 20 degrees.

    +1 -1
  • tonytony    2,437 posts
    Williams denied stay of proceedings Lemaire now on Dunaden.
    +1 -1
  • TheFunksterTheFunkster    3,840 posts
    said:

    Williams denied stay of proceedings Lemaire now on Dunaden.

    Which doesn't set good precedence for Nash....
    +1 -1
  • Unknown
    Bar Plates to go on Mourayan for tomorrow... turned me of a little now, will be halving my bet
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  • ericwanduericwandu    544 posts
    come to the conclusion im on at first sight
    +1 -1
  • TorpedoPuntTorpedoPunt    1,891 posts
    If Bart gets Precedence to win there will be no more superlatives left.

    Actually if he evens places.
    +1 -1
  • VorgtrafficVorgtraffic    1,755 posts
    Horses that interest me

    Americain
    Glass Harmonium
    Lucas Cranach
    Shamrocker
    Tullamore
    +1 -1
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