Lightning Stakes

Ridersonthestorm33 · February 2016

Group 1 Lightning Stakes this Saturday...Just seven runners but all seven are resuming from a spell. Most unusual in a Group 1 to have the whole field racing first up.

octavius · February 2016

Cant believe Exosphere is holding out Chautauqua for fav based on its last run.

Happy to take $2.50 Chautauqua money back 2nd being offered around.

Vorgtraffic · February 2016

Chatauqua is actually just ridiculous first up, it's always his best run in a campaign. Exosphere is a terrific horse but will have a lot of trouble from barrier 1.

octavius · February 2016

Chautauqua first up over the straight in a small field all points to a win. He will blow Exosphere away, its the older horses I worry about. I actually backed Delectation when he beat him last start at nice odds, but will stick with the Rolls Royce this time around.

H-BOMBER · February 2016

A couple of things regarding the day as a whole at Flemington.

I see Mark Kavanagh is still able to train?

A horse called Clockwork Orange is going around for its first start. There was a similarly named horse here in Perth 11 years ago.

Looking forward to seeing Perfect Reflection fly the WA flag.

My tip of the day is in the CS Hayes, Top Me Up at $18 is a great each way throw.

therealkramer · February 2016

Vorgtraffic said:
Chatauqua is actually just ridiculous first up, it's always his best run in a campaign. Exosphere is a terrific horse but will have a lot of trouble from barrier 1.

Agree with this in part but has Chautauqua faced the best of the best first up in the past?. Twice he's been beaten by Terravista down the straight in what should have been his 'peak' run. Delectation beat him in the Darley last spring and found a length on Chautauqua by reversing their placings in the Gilgai. Terravista should have won but for a checkered passage.

I thought that Exosphere wouldn't be a betting proposition again after the Golden Rose. Now we are getting $2.50. I would generally back the older, proven horse but Chautauqua has had 6 starts for 3 wins and 3 placings at the track. He seems to favour the cambers of Moonee Valley more. His races at Flemington are won and lost by very small margins so I can see why he's not in the red.

therealkramer · February 2016

H-BOMBER said:

I see Mark Kavanagh is still able to train?

He and Danny O'Brien immediately appealed their disqualifications so they have a stay in proceedings until that is settled. I can't find the details of the VCAT appeal date but I think I heard on Racing.com it would be in March at the earliest although don't quote me.

lame · February 2016

therealkramer said:

Vorgtraffic said:
Chatauqua is actually just ridiculous first up, it's always his best run in a campaign. Exosphere is a terrific horse but will have a lot of trouble from barrier 1.
Agree with this in part but has Chautauqua faced the best of the best first up in the past?. Twice he's been beaten by Terravista down the straight in what should have been his 'peak' run. Delectation beat him in the Darley last spring and found a length on Chautauqua by reversing their placings in the Gilgai. Terravista should have won but for a checkered passage.

I thought that Exosphere wouldn't be a betting proposition again after the Golden Rose. Now we are getting $2.50. I would generally back the older, proven horse but Chautauqua has had 6 starts for 3 wins and 3 placings at the track. He seems to favour the cambers of Moonee Valley more. His races at Flemington are won and lost by very small margins so I can see why he's not in the red.

Track ratings , good to fast track should see the best horse wins IMO being Chautauqua

therealkramer · February 2016

lame said:

therealkramer said:

Vorgtraffic said:
Chatauqua is actually just ridiculous first up, it's always his best run in a campaign. Exosphere is a terrific horse but will have a lot of trouble from barrier 1.
Agree with this in part but has Chautauqua faced the best of the best first up in the past?. Twice he's been beaten by Terravista down the straight in what should have been his 'peak' run. Delectation beat him in the Darley last spring and found a length on Chautauqua by reversing their placings in the Gilgai. Terravista should have won but for a checkered passage.

I thought that Exosphere wouldn't be a betting proposition again after the Golden Rose. Now we are getting $2.50. I would generally back the older, proven horse but Chautauqua has had 6 starts for 3 wins and 3 placings at the track. He seems to favour the cambers of Moonee Valley more. His races at Flemington are won and lost by very small margins so I can see why he's not in the red.
Track ratings , good to fast track should see the best horse wins IMO being Chautauqua

Team Hawkes think he is too. I'm not sure it's that cut and dried-I don't think he was unlucky in the Darley(Wayne Hawkes disagrees) last year whereas Terravista most certainly was. It's a small, select field. So tactics will be everything. I think Chautautua is best suited when the pace is on from the start otherwise it's up to Dwayne Dunn to get it right.

Ridersonthestorm33 · February 2016

Backing Delectation and Terrevista both for the place around the $3.20 to $3.50 mark.... Don't think their is much between the top 5 in betting. Agree tactics and luck will count for a lot.

Vorgtraffic · February 2016

I would almost argue that chautauquas defeats have been due to dwayne dunn's poor tactics than anything else - too many times he has exposed the horse way too early in the straight in fear of being held up for a run (just look at the darleys the past 2 years)... which dulls his brilliant finish. When you are by far the best horse in the race you can afford to do this, but at the elite level you have to ride with some degree of tactility. I think moonee valley encourages chautauqua to be ridden more conservatively where he can finish like a train, unlike some of the tactics D Dunn has adopted down the straight.

I don't think delectation has any hope of winning over 1000 at this level. in fact I will be ignoring the Darley last year as a form reference to this because it was a bunched finish and the significant bias to the outside rail made the race messy. And terravista is in the wheelchair for me

therealkramer · February 2016

Ridersonthestorm33 said:
Backing Delectation and Terrevista both for the place around the $3.20 to $3.50 mark.... Don't think their is much between the top 5 in betting. Agree tactics and luck will count for a lot.

I don't necessarily think the winner will be the recipient of good luck-I'm just pointing out Chatauqua's only decisive wins at the elite level have been at Moonee Valley. He's been beaten by a head or less in two Darley Stakes. If he is that much better he should have more margin for error if things don't go exactly right.

therealkramer · February 2016

Vorgtraffic said:
I would almost argue that chautauquas defeats have been due to dwayne dunn's poor tactics than anything else - too many times he has exposed the horse way too early in the straight in fear of being held up for a run (just look at the darleys the past 2 years)... which dulls his brilliant finish. When you are by far the best horse in the race you can afford to do this, but at the elite level you have to ride with some degree of tactility.

I backed him in the 2014 Darley and whilst Dunn getting moving early opened up the gap for the winner I still think if Chautauqua was good enough he should have won. It's difficult to make excuses when they are given every chance and provided with a clear passage throughout. Joe Pride then kept calling his horse the WBS no matter how many times Chautauqua beat him in return bouts but Terravista had his measure in the Darley yet again.

Vorgtraffic · February 2016

I dont agree that he had his measure in the darley but it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. Exosphere could just murder them all, the throne is empty.

Can't wait

lame · February 2016

And the best horse wins

therealkramer · February 2016

lame said:
And the best horse wins

Just :-SS

octavius · February 2016

Knew Exosphere was a pretender in open company...

hash · February 2016

Chautauqua what a superstar, got one of the best finishes we'll out of any sprinter since BC

Chris · February 2016

Superstar, great win

Exposphere ran a 0 off his stud fee

Vorgtraffic · February 2016

I dont know how you can criticize exosphere's run whatsoever. Exposed WAY too early and was on the completely wrong part of the track.

There's no reason he wont annihilate them next time, the fact japonisme got so close proves it

Don't be results biased, we just get a better price about exosphere next time. But today wasn't the day to be on him from that barrier with the way the track was playing...

hash · February 2016

Japonisme aint no slouch either Vorg...

therealkramer · February 2016

hash said:
Japonisme aint no slouch either Vorg...

The big sexy Godolphin horse has his measure in Sydney though. Exosphere just doesn't handle the straight, just like Srikandi. So there are a few you can run a line thru for the Newmarket.

octavius · February 2016

You can make excuses for exopheres run today which will cost punters more money...but his previous run was very weak and a potential superstar wouldnt fold like that...

therealkramer · February 2016

octavius said:
You can make excuses for exopheres run today which will cost punters more money...but his previous run was very weak and a potential superstar wouldnt fold like that...

I don't think it was the bias that beat him in the Coolmore because Keen Array made its run in the same part of the track. But the fact remains Japomisme had won four on the trot before running into Exosphere and the Goldolphin horse destroyed him in the Run To The Rose and then The Roman Consul in race record time. That horse used the rails bias to advantage on Derby Day and has run a close third in the Lightning. Exosphere has only been beaten 1.7 lengths but it's enough to bring him back to the field. The Flemington straight is his kryptonite-If they keep running him at the track he will keep getting beaten. If he comes back to Sydney and gets rolled then fair enough he's overrated but the jury is out as far as I'm concerned. Terravista wins if Ollie doesn't stop riding when his whip slips from his grasp momentarily so he's the one Chautauqua should be concerned about going forward.

hash · February 2016

therealkramer said:

hash said:
Japonisme aint no slouch either Vorg...
The big sexy Godolphin horse has his measure in Sydney though. Exosphere just doesn't handle the straight, just like Srikandi. So there are a few you can run a line thru for the Newmarket.

and when Exosphere wasn't contesting the same race look what Jap did, held its own and stood up. cant think of the race but I think it was during the spring carnival that he won and won well at big odds... the horse is better than average imo I just think it's a better performed horse in sydney

The_Bull · February 2016

I've watched the replay 100 times. Does Oliver fumble for the whip at the 100m on Terravista? If so he has cost it the race....

therealkramer · February 2016

The_Bull said:
I've watched the replay 100 times. Does Oliver fumble for the whip at the 100m on Terravista? If so he has cost it the race....

Yes on both counts and Joe Pride gave him a serve on twitter

Pride Racing ‏@PrideRacing 20h20 hours ago Melbourne, Victoria
Even WBS needs a jockey who can hang on to his stick

hash · February 2016

The_Bull said:
I've watched the replay 100 times. Does Oliver fumble for the whip at the 100m on Terravista? If so he has cost it the race....

he does something with the whip and considering the margin yes has def cost him the race... thankfully Chataq got the bob in though :D

The_Bull · February 2016

He stated in a post race interview that he dropped the whip before regaining it. A rookie error which has cost connections $300k :((

therealkramer · February 2016

It looked like he stopped riding his mount during the race and that was the reason. I know the commentators said it wouldn't have made a difference. I don't agree as I think you can clearly see his riding action change and the margin is very, very narrow.

G'day Punter!

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