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Ascot Preview, 16th Apr 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Real Iced Tea Co Handicap - Scott Embry
In a case of Murphy's Law whatever could have gone wrong, did go wrong for Universal Law first-up. On a horrendously wet day he was slow away tracking about 3 lengths last on his own for the majority of the race and then when tacking on rounding the home corner was critically held up and when eventually finding room was gobbling the leaders up. Steps straight up to a mile here and with luck from barrier 1 should go close to winning. Showy Chloe was forced to do all the chasing last start behind tare away leader Corporate Larrikin and was found wanting late. Was the target of incredibly strong market support and the fact she hasn't been tipped out for a spell suggests she's still ticking along well enough to win this. 52kg is a luxury for a filly of her quality and she'll make her presence felt again. Street Bandit doesn't win out of turn but his efforts in much higher quality races than this have been encouraging for the fans of this WA cult hero.
8. UNIVERSAL LAW - 7. SHOWY CHLOE - 3. STREET BANDIT
SUGGESTED BET - 8. UNIVERSAL LAW $100
In a case of Murphy's Law whatever could have gone wrong, did go wrong for Universal Law first-up. On a horrendously wet day he was slow away tracking about 3 lengths last on his own for the majority of the race and then when tacking on rounding the home corner was critically held up and when eventually finding room was gobbling the leaders up. Steps straight up to a mile here and with luck from barrier 1 should go close to winning. Showy Chloe was forced to do all the chasing last start behind tare away leader Corporate Larrikin and was found wanting late. Was the target of incredibly strong market support and the fact she hasn't been tipped out for a spell suggests she's still ticking along well enough to win this. 52kg is a luxury for a filly of her quality and she'll make her presence felt again. Street Bandit doesn't win out of turn but his efforts in much higher quality races than this have been encouraging for the fans of this WA cult hero.
8. UNIVERSAL LAW - 7. SHOWY CHLOE - 3. STREET BANDIT
SUGGESTED BET - 8. UNIVERSAL LAW $100
+1 -1
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
Comments
Captivating Point was potentially the best backed horse at Albany all year on debut when opening around $2.50 in some pre-post markets and closing closer to the $1.50 mark than the original quota. He put on an absolute clinic when getting off the fence rounding the home corner and belting rivals to the tune of almost 6 lengths. This is obviously harder but Steve Wolfe is a cunning Aussie battler and doesn't bring horses to town unless they're ready to fight for a cheque. I'd be expecting Captivating Point to prove up to this class and can run a race at eachway odds. Recoiled looked unsuited on a wet track over 1200m where he had to work for the lead and was ultimately outgunned late. Back to 1000m suits and he should lead to the 100m post and be very hard to roll. Brisanto just keeps winning of late after looking a shot duck at the corner. Query dropping back to 1000m as they might be a bit sharp for him, but winning form is good form.
9. CAPTIVATED POINT - 3. RECOILED - 1. BRISANTO
In what may seem a little bit of an illogical call I'm going to say that this race is a deal tougher for Military Reign that the first-up assignment. Going into the Marjorie Charleson Classic Military Reign looked incredibly well suited with only 53kg on her back, drawn to lead in a race which has a distinct lack of pace. DMac made handpicked the race for her months in advance and her training was scheduled to perfection. This time she drops back to the 1000m dash for cash, rises a whopping 6kg to lump a full 59 and looks near impossible to lead consider the little pocket rocket Hot Goods is drawn inside her. Forced to sit outside the speed I think she'll be vulnerable. Clearly the class galloper in the race and deserving favourite but I liked her first-up and don't like her second-up. It's a lay for me. Popping Bourne Supremacy on top who should get the softest of runs from barrier 1 behind a blistering top end tempo and be able to unleash late. Same goes for Profit Street who should park behind them and be doing his best work late. Military Reign too good to be left out of the top 3 but worth taking on at $2.50
6. BOURNE SUPREMACY - 7. HOT GOODS - 1. MILITARY REIGN
For Tower of Lonhro to carry 59kg over 3200m and win would be an incredible achievement and it's impossible not to tip him after his barnstorming finish in the Pinjarra Cup. From barrier 6 Pike should be able to bury him away for the first mile of the race and give him the economical run he requires to unleash that powerful turn of foot late. Danny Miller reunites with Kirov Boy and as long as he doesn't get blocked in on the rails early from barrier 3 will be sliding forwards and finding the lead a lot easier than he has in recent runs. If Dashing Dan can grab a breather mid-race and really throw the anchor out before he puts the accelerator down then Kirov Boy should be able to put his customary 4 or 5 length break on them and leading them into the home corner. Ran a really genuine race in this event last year proving that he can stay the 3200 and should give backers a sight. Throwing up an absolute maddie in Battle King. Only 1 win from 22 starts and no other placings but I think he can be that one-paced grinder who sits third or fourth up on the speed and whack away into a placing at ridiculously big odds.
1. TOWER OF LONHRO - 6. KIROV BOY - 4. BATTLE KING
Magnifisio is a second-up specialist, boasting 5 wins from 8 attempts with another 2 minors. While 1400m is on her limit I think she has probably lost that element of sharpness and requires the extra distance late in her career. While Wink and a Nod won well last start I think she found her pet distance of a mile on her surface of choice and will find dropping back to 1400m on a Good dry track a fair bit tougher. 4 runs in 4 weeks may take its toll here and I'm happy to label her as a lay. Going with Magnifisio who should have trimmed up from her first run and will prove too strong for these. Cadenza ran an honest race alongside Magnifisio after a much softer run throughout and should figure in the finish again. Zoetomtaya has been specked in betting at her past few after winning the Pinjarra Pearl Classic. Considering she safely accounted for Zonte and Queen of Choice in that run and meets both gallopers considerably better at the weights 50-1 is a big price for a Durrant trained mare who has 4 victories and 4 minors at Ascot and 6 wins over 1400m.
1. MAGNIFISIO - 3. CADENZA - 5. ZOETOMTAYA
SUGGESTED BET - 1. MAGNIFISIO $75
Not a lot separates the top 3 selections in Saul's Special, Spangled Impact and Whispering Brook so the fact that Saul's Special has the services of the States premier hoop in W.Pike makes him the on-topper. Saul's Special was heavily supported in betting in the Karrakatta Plate and ran a very handy race, savaging the line once he saw day-light. Ran through the line very well suggesting another furlong would be to his liking and as long as Pikey can weave some of his magic from the fence he should go very close to bagging yet another feature race win. Spangled Impact has never finished outside the top 2 in her career and there is nothing to suggest that record will be tarnished in the Sires Produce. Her run in the Karrakatta was enormous, settling at the rear after being restrained early and rounding the field from near last to finish a close up second. Whispering Brook should lead again and is the winner of 4 from 4 and over half a million dollars. If she can get a soft sectional mid-race then she'll see out 1400m and could easily kill them.
1. SAUL'S SPECIAL - 9. SPANGLED IMPACT - 8. WHISPERING BROOK
whisper68 likes this post.
I'm prepared to have a throw at the stumps in the biggest 3 year old race of the year and jump off Kia Ora Koutou who I've been tipping non-stop like a broken record for the past few months and go with the tiny little filly Culverin in an upset. Hoping McGruddy doesn't adopt Dashing Dan Miller tactics like he did in the Oaks and unleash Culverin at the 800m three deep in an attempt to find the front but rather sit back and let her ease into the race. The fact she was able to produce a short sharp turn of foot and then still whack away in the straight to finish third was very impressive and I think if saved up for one final run at them can prove to be the horse with the best turn of foot. At around 30-1 I'm happy to play Culverin as a blowout. Who Dat Singa was the best backed runner in the Melvista and as is normally the case in WA the money hit and he won with ease. Barrier 11 hurts his chances but if Carbery can slide across from the outside and find a position outside the lead then he'll go close. Kia Ora Koutou has been relatively disappointing this preparation but this is the target and Durrant may just have an ace up his sleeve.
12. CULVERIN - 2. WHO DAT SINGA (NZ) - 1. KIA ORA KOUTOU
SUGGESTED BET - 12. CULVERIN $10 x $40
Cool Passion represents the last of my three lays for the day: Military Reign, Wink and a Nod and finally Cool Passion. Hopefully the PTT community agree after I was proved very wrong last week by Chelsea with Dainty Tess proving slicker than an oil spill in the opener. Cool Passion, winner of 3 from 4 starts including a track record at Bunbury will need to be sharp from barrier 13 first-up from a spell without the benefit of a trial. Undoubtably her hardest test to date and I think there's a few better options. I've gone with Pikey in the weekly Get Out aboard Celebrity Dream who was severly hampered first-up and attacked the line with gusto. Second-up drawn beautifully should go close. Dendee is well weighted after the claim for in-form apprentice Jordan Turner and if she gets the right runs at crucial stages will be powering home. The Director was a late scratching on Thursday to run Saturday, a decision which shows confidence. Luckless last start and deserving of an opportunity at a prime time metro win.
PTT Quaddie: 1,2,3,5 / 1,8,9 / 1,2,9,11,12 / 1,2,3,4,8,11 - $100 = 28%
11. CELEBRITY DREAM (NZ) - 1. DENDEE - 3. THE DIRECTOR
SUGGESTED BET - 11. CELEBRITY DREAM (NZ)
Durrant may just have an ace up his sleeve =)) =))
The Koutou is the biggest Monty Ascot will see this season. Trained too the minute and will give them wind burn.
RIO likes this post.
bit of a interesting preview from another racing site I stumbled across.... Best rougje in the 6th: 3 Rising Sea (Best Odds: $21.00) ran last Wednesday over this track/distance where he got a long way back in the run and worked home strongly. Harder here, but he will run the trip out better than most and draws a soft gate.
H-BOMBER likes this post.
ColourfulRD likes this post.
You might be correct Kramer. But I am confident one is at the end of its campaign. the other is at its peak. Also the extra 200 metres will be crucial to ones chances and detrimental to the others.
TheDiva, thefalcon likes this post.
Sauls special
Tower of lonhro
All up win .
hash, Chelsea likes this post.
GaryH likes this post.
the derby? just back the cerise and white....
I have a feeling the trip to Melbourne of a very raw horse may have flattened KOK....just an opinion, that's all.