Ascot 21/1/17

Rodent · January 2017

p.s Eleven Seconds took off BEFORE the 600m and ran home in 36.01 as the leader over 1800m. First Affair stormed home in 36.17 over 1600m.

Look at the splits in Wrinkly's race which was only 1500m. 11sec was enormous.

hash · January 2017

as for KOW the wide gate may have been a factor using a bit too much gas early on? that or maybe its prep has come to an end after 7 runs in 10 weeks or so?

but if and when there is a track bias don't you think horses have to be fit and in form (to an extent) for them to be competitive, just like 11 seconds was.. IF it was a leaders bias track it wouldn't mean that a 200/1 shot in Le Schiller could simply lead and win it would take a fit in form horse to do so...

I would bet on it that if any of the top 5 other horses had the exact same run 11 seconds did then they also would have won the same way the winner did

Rodent · January 2017

@carey will be able to quantify the "bias". I'd be interested in his thoughts on the times/bias and quality or otherwise of Eleven Seconds' win.

carey · January 2017

i will wait and see, as to my opinion of if there was a bias or not.

the rail was 3m and it had not been in that far for a while, so it's possible i guess.

especially as most horses in most races were basically in the same possy from go to whoa, which is normally a sure sign of a track that hurts them.

i think rodent and hash are both right and wrong to a degree, but it's too early yet to say either way for sure.

Gilgamesh · January 2017

Blue Houdinin and Fast As the Wind didn't run on at all and they didn't exactly thunder home in those races. Not sure that Point can get home much faster but would have expected him to wind up a bit better.

Not disagreeing with you though it is one and the same, if more jockeys put more emphasis on having their mounts in a position where they can actually be competitive like the example of S Parnham on Wicked Hunter it would create more natural tempo and better racing. Its not up to the ones who lob in the good spots to up the tempo and give the others a better chance, they all need to get more competitive early so they can actually be competitive late otherwise you keep ending up with horses like Khwaja having the best run home time but being beaten over 8 lengths.

The Baraki Beats race was ridiculous, he's coasting yet has a 2 length lead early, come on guys!

Rodent said:
Bias shmias. What bias? The bias yesterday was tempo related. Naturaliste ran the 1st 600m in 37.01! With Shady Grey sitting outside him, of course they weren't going to stop.
They walked in the 1000m race so the 1st 3 at the turn ran the trifecta.
Baraki Beats got it soft in the lead.

carey · January 2017

crikey that was a coincidence, rodents' post was not there when i posted mine.
but it's not correct that i can always quantify it exactly.
just the probability of it being biased or not.

something about yesterday does not ring true, but that run of eleven seconds interests, because if it never got any help, that was a huge effort i thought.

hash · January 2017

carey said:

especially as most horses in most races were basically in the same possy from go to whoa, which is normally a sure sign of a track that hurts them.

my point exactly, case closed, thanks carey
^:)^

rodent - 1

hash - 1 (and closing) :P

HotJules · January 2017

choc said:
A hypothetical based on Settlers Creek.
Would you rather be an owner that runs 5 seconds in a line - or win one race with four lasts...
Ones a consistent earner that just can't salute - one gets you that photo on the wall but never looks likely at most other times....

won 75k or thereabouts with them string of seconds. just can't seem to crack it and whilst you are happy with an earner there is no doubting going one better would be ideal - just for that photo on the wall. we had one like him in the yard a while back, crimson pack. anymore seconds and they'll be a minute.

paraletic · January 2017

Race 7 Gatting not good enough on the day, the winner smashed him, Brad Parnham rode him a treat. Take nothing away from the winner i think he will win a few more races. A 2nd placing for my guy against older horses and at an unknown distance its hard to walk away dissapointed especially when he has claimed $130k this prep.

hash · January 2017

I think he was good enough on the day, we just didn't get to see it unfold

spinking · January 2017

Was there any mention anywhere of the connections of 11 seconds riding this horse forward at Ascot Saturday , as a quick look back shows it has apparently never raced on the pace before. If this is correct surely the punter should have been advised if the stewards were

hash · January 2017

who cares about the punters best interest, the plunge horse was beaten and the bookies all over the country were laughing all the way to the bank, that's all that matters isn't it..

GLAMOUR · January 2017

paraletic said:
Race 7 Gatting not good enough on the day, the winner smashed him, Brad Parnham rode him a treat. Take nothing away from the winner i think he will win a few more races. A 2nd placing for my guy against older horses and at an unknown distance its hard to walk away dissapointed especially when he has claimed $130k this prep.

Ive watched him from the start,just maybe 1400 to 1600 could be his go to start with,has a wirlwind finish.and the bonus i noticed he has won in the wet,so i will be watching him when the wet tracks come along.

hash · January 2017

see him pull for the first 400 or so? didn't settle at all

GLAMOUR · January 2017

hash said:
see him pull for the first 400 or so? didn't settle at all

No doubt they will work on that,would be great to see them sort that out,and im sure they will,as i see he has only had 6-7 starts and is only a 3yr old..

G'day Punter!

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