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Oakleigh Plate 2017
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OAKLEIGH PLATE 2017- Historical analysis and selections by Brisburgh Phil
Below are the last Fourteen winners of this wonderful Group 1 sprint race;
- 2016 FLAMBERGE 6G 58kg (15) $31
- 2015 SHAMAL WIND 5M 54kg (14) $10
- 2014 LANKAN RUPEE 4G 56kg (7) $4
- 2013 MRS ONASSIS 5m 52.5kg (11) $16
- 2012 WOORIM 6g 55.5kg (8) $21
- 2011 EAGLE FALLS 5g 57kg (9) $21
- 2010 STARSPANGLEDBANNER 3c 52kg (6) $7
- 2009 SWISS ACE 4g 54kg (18) $31
- 2008 WEEKEND HUSSLER 3g 53kg (10) $2.10
- 2007 UNDUE 5g 57kg (14) $15
- 2006 SNITZEL 3c 51.5kg (4) $11
- 2005 FASTNET ROCK 3c 57kg (6)$2
- 2004 REACTIVE 5m 52kg (1) $16
- 2003 RIVER DOVE 4m 51.5kg (10) $17
Pertinent facts;
- 13 of last 14 winners have been first or second up when winning
this. (13 of last 13). Not that significant given most of the runners
attempt the race fresh from the Spring . - 12/14 aged between 3 & 5 years. 5 of last 6 winners have been
aged 5 or 6, (7/14). but none have won beyond that age in the past 14
years. - Only one horse has carried more than 56.5kg to win in this period
(Flamberge last year), but 5 have carried between 55.5kg and 57kg - Only 1 winner has drawn inside barrier 4, with wide draws being no disadvantage overall (7/13 barrier 9 or wider).
- Of those above that weren’t a first up winner, none were beaten more than 2.5 Lengths at their previous start.
- 6/14 sired by a Son or Grandson of Danehill
- Average winning price is very high @ $14.65, especially given there has been 2 winners around a $2 quote.
Tempo;
The speed looks to be very solid this year but it’s always hard to
know how this race is going to play out. One year on pacers will
dominate and the next will be one by a swooper. Flamberge, Sheidel,
Faatinah, Wild Rain, Aegean Sea and Shakespearean Lass look the on
pacers in the race, and a few of these horses do tend to go hell for a
leather. If I had to hazard a guess 2017 should be the year for a run on
horse.
Historical analysis;
Process of elimination here sees us able to omit a few from point 1-
Flamberge. Thermal Current, Ready Sunshine, Hellbent, Ocean Embers,
Shakepearean Lass, El Divino and Guard Of Honour.
Point 4 would see us eliminating Sheidel. Of the rest we can really
only separate them by the Danehill reference, and the average winning
price, both of which hardly make this conclusive. Nevertheless Miss
Promiscuity and I Am A Star miss out on that count which leaves us with
the following;
Fell Swoop, Extreme Choice, Kaepernick, Thermal Current, Wild Rain, and Missrock
Using price 7 of the above 14 winners have started at odds between
$10 and $21 so I’d be looking to that price bracket. On that basis we
can eliminate Fell Swoop, Extreme Choice (too short) Thermal Current,
Wild Rain and Missrock (all are probably going to start $26 or better).
That leaves us with KAEPERNICK only who was going to
be my selection anyway. He should be suited by a fast pace up front and
his best form is on the fresh side being yet to win a race with 14 days
or less between runs. His formlines in Sydney look extremely
encouraging for this off placings behind Speith (conceded it 3.5kg) and
Takedown (was in receipt of 1.5kg).
Of the others it’s a bit hard to knock the favourite Extreme Choice
who already has a Group 1 win at WFA when first up last preparation. If
he repeats that he is going to be very hard to beat but I’m not keen on
him at a current less than $4 price. On a pure stats anaysis I had Sheidel
as the equal winner of this with Kaepernick so I have to respect her i
from a decent barrier (despite recent historical precedents). She is
unlikely to lead but might be the one to get first crack at the leaders
in the straight. And she has Jo Moreira to pilot her. She is as honest
as they come and the Winterbottom run in Perth was probably a career
best for her beating home the likes of Malaguerra.
I do respect the 3 year old filly I Am A Star too
who gets in on the minimum, which is probably a bit unusual given she
has already won a Group 1 race against older horses in the Spring.She meets the well fancied Hellbent
on similar terms for beating him home 2.5L last start. The latter horse
would probably win this if he repeated his demolition of Sheidel here
at this course and distance four starts back. His biggest asset here
might be a blistering pace up front, which he didn’t get last start here
at this trip. Apparently his sectionals were okay last start and he has
been specifically set for this race. I’m finding it a bit hard to get
warm on him at less than double figures but it could well be Darren Weir
to the fore again. There are many other chances including the two top
weighted horses (Flamberge actually meets Fell Swoop 3kg for beating him
last year in this race) but my first 4 is as follows;
- KAEPERNICK– I’m not that keen on backing anything else really
- Extreme Choice
- I Am A Star
- Hellbent
My bets are likely to be a win bet on Kaepernick, and a saver on I Am
A Star. They might well be the best value horses in the race anyway,
based on fairly recent form.
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