Railway Stakes 2017 - early tips.

hash · November 2017

Flanders said:
My opinion is that the connections of Gatting are very very harsh if they've completely sacked Autier to the point that they'd rather carry the extra 1kg. Sure he rode a couple of bad races but fair dinkum he won yas some big ones. ... probably got some of those owners the biggest race win they will ever have.
If this snapshot is anything to go by there really is no loyalty in racing anymore.

Before you go teeing off, i guess there must be more to the decision than what meets the eye but FFS this is a group 1 worth $1 million. Hopefully it all works out well for you all but I'd reckon the Frenchman is entitled to be livid

The connections had nothing to do with the decision you peanut and they rarely do and that usually applies for nearly every big stable

Ridersonthestorm33 · November 2017

Fourteen horses between $5.50 and $23 on Tabtouch. That's one hell of compressed market. Most wide open Railway can recall. Prices on the whole will get out to a much % tomorrow too.

Six eastern staters ( including Bart ) are vying for top seven in the market..remarkable stuff. Nothing wrong with locals like Variation , Silverstream, Gatting, Cosmic Storm, Pounamu, Material Man...their form holds up, and of course a local will run favourite.

Sportsbet will probably ( Tab should too ) run a market Sandgropers v The Rest!

savethegame · November 2017

Hope the tom melb. camp make full use of gate1 if wind conditions,suit as his only 4 races he has won in aus. he has been in front on the corner....2nd in epsom when they run the mile 1.33.1 for the mile gee if he shanghis off the bend take a real good effort to run him down, out of his last five starts he has finished under length behind happy clapper twice.. The horse has been a cheat previously but under waller his holding his form 5out 6starts from spell beaten less then a length the other run drew 15 in Toorak still only finished 2.6l behind tosen stardom

Ridersonthestorm33 · November 2017

Think would have The Rest $1.68 v Sandgropers $2.15. Six eastern staters v ten locals ( including the favourite )

Tough call #-o but I'd be on the rest.

Flanders · November 2017

hash said:

Flanders said:
My opinion is that the connections of Gatting are very very harsh if they've completely sacked Autier to the point that they'd rather carry the extra 1kg. Sure he rode a couple of bad races but fair dinkum he won yas some big ones. ... probably got some of those owners the biggest race win they will ever have.
If this snapshot is anything to go by there really is no loyalty in racing anymore.

Before you go teeing off, i guess there must be more to the decision than what meets the eye but FFS this is a group 1 worth $1 million. Hopefully it all works out well for you all but I'd reckon the Frenchman is entitled to be livid

The connections had nothing to do with the decision you peanut and they rarely do and that usually applies for nearly every big stable

Peanut? Thanks for that champ.
Connections to me includes anyone who is connected to the horse such as trainer, owners, racing manager. If someone other than this made the decision feel free to say what their role is. Otherwise I don't really care.

Tivers · November 2017

Bigger picture is that if Glen Boss hadn't pulled out / reneged (at the last moment), you wouldn't be having this conversation.

Anyway...... looks like a great race yes.
Fantastic to hear so much positivity about WA racing for once.
Sun is shining. Cricket starts tomorrow. What else could you want......

Ridersonthestorm33 · November 2017

One prominent corporate bookmaker has Tom Melbourne favourite at $6...third change of favourite in a Group One Perth race just days out from the race...unheard of!

Scales Of Justice, Black Heart Bart and now Tom Melbourne have all at some stage this week been awarded the 'Yellow Jersey' of favouritism.

Variation with one corporate now into $9 :-O

octavius · November 2017

Earlier in the year I said Athlete would win the guineas, at 150/1 boosted odds I sure hope I am right...

TheDiva · November 2017

$251 with PUNTA.

shouldnt even be in the field.

thefalcon · November 2017

nev talked it up as a VRC derby candidate....I think he was nominated.. :))

octavius · November 2017

TheDiva said:
$251 with PUNTA.
shouldnt even be in the field.

So if I log on and try to put $50 on it I am not going to be restricted am I?

Edit: Well that's embarrassing, cant even make a deposit via Poli, internal error.

Chris · November 2017

Seems fine to me, how much are you having on shorty?

octavius · November 2017

Done, $50 @ 251. If it wins (and I get paid) i will put 2k on the bar for PTTers.

TheDiva · November 2017

so you cant do poli... and you blame someone else.... yep, embarrassing.

then you reckon you're going to get restricted.. and you dont... yep, embarrassing again.

then you crow that if you win and get paid (why wouldnt you get paid)?... you'll be a man and put $2k on the bar?

Gee whiz, how about a thanks for the $250's

:-q

Chris · November 2017

We all know bean counters don't shout the bar anyway

octavius · November 2017

Poli didnt work last night or first thing this morning, I tried multiple times on different browsers and use it regularly elsewhere, so the fact is it wasn't working.

Thanks for the 250s hopefully it wins and everyone can raise a glass or 10 to your generosity...

thefalcon · November 2017

I've picked the winners of the last 2 railways but can say that this year it is a complete raffle, in reality any one of the 16 can win.

its harder to pick than a broken nose but i'll be having my 50 cents e/w on variation....

Ridersonthestorm33 · November 2017

As many punters would know Tom Melbourne has run 2nd at five of his previous six starts.

Sportsbet are offering any takers $7 that Tom will be runner up again. So about $6.50 to win and $7 to run second. Almost guarantees will run.....third.

Fastmoney · November 2017

Brisburghphil preview

These are the most pertinent historical statistics;

11/15 have carried less than 55.5kg to win, and 13/15 carried less
than 56.5kg. 2007 winner El Presidente carried 55.5kg but was only 0.5kg
over the minimum that year. 6 of the last 7 winners have carried 53.5kg
or less. The only one not too was the dual winner Luckygray In 2011 and
2013, He had also run second in 2012 carrying 58kg.
13/15 dropped in weight from their prior start, and 13/15 didn’t
rise in weight. The average weight drop over this period is roughly 3kg.
No horse has won rising more than 1kg off it’s last start
11/15 have been either 4 or 5 years of age, and only 2 horses have
won beyond 6 years of age since 1989. 4yo’s have won 10 of the last 18,
and 17 of the past 37.
The Lee Steere Classic and RJ Peters Stakes have produced 10 of the
past 15 winners. Of the others Mr Moet was first up. Sniper’s Bullet,
Gathering and Good Project came via Melbourne through albeit different
races, and Luckgray came through the Asian Beau Stakes to win
controversially on protest.
13/15 placed in the first 4 at their prior start, and all bar one of
those has been a WA galloper. 26 winners since 1985 finished 1st, 2nd
or 3rd at their prior start. Stick with an in form galloper! 2 of the 3
Eastern States winners in recent times were well beaten at their
previous start (Sniper’s Bullet & Gathering)
9/15 have won from barriers 1-9, and 14/15 from barriers 1-12.
Hardrada won from barrier 13 in 2003 but the race was run at Belmont
that year. Oddly five of the past seven winners have come out of barrier
11 or 12, (four from barrier 12) as did Northerly in 2000. Providing
the horse has the early pace to get across to lead, or be on the pace
early a wide barrier is no disadvantage, the perfect example being Good
Project winning in 2015. Either that or your horse needs to drop out to
the tail early (Luckygray twice, and Elite Belle). Caught midfield off a
wide barrier here is almost always fatal. Getting the speed map right
for this race is critical.
4 of the past 15 winners had run in this race in one of the past two years. 3 of those had been runner up.
4 of the past 6 winners have come from a midfield or worse position
to win, which is a total reversal for this race which was largely
dominated by on pace horses (or those sitting on pace to midfield) in
the decade prior.
13/15 had raced in Perth at some stage before winning. Gathering in
2010 is the only one not to have done so, and he got a soft lead off a
very suitable (for him) 27 day break leading in.
Only 3 Stallions had won the race in the past 27 years. Good Project
broke the drought in 2015, with the previous being Island Morn in 1994.
Average winning price is around $10 and that is consistent with the results over more than a 20 year period.
Only 3 mares have won in the past 16 years and two of those at ages of 5 & 6.

3 of the past thirteen winners (but 3 of last 8) have come from the
Eastern States. All have been Sydney trained and came out of a last
start Spring carnival run in Melbourne, and all have been on pace
runners.

Summing up the ideal historical candidate would be;

4 to 6 years of age, B) finished in the first 4 placings last start, C)Carrying less than 55.5kg, D) Coming froma barrier no wider than 12, E) had a lead up run in the Lee Steere or RJ Peters and F) be dropping in weight 2.5kg or more. G) Preferably be a Gelding or Mare. Finding one with all these pre requisites at close to or at a double figure quote would be ideal.

Tempo;

It does look as though we will have a genuine early speed in the race
with the likes of Great Shot, Scales Of Justice, Material Man, Supply
And Demand and possibly All Our Roads going forward early. All are
capable of leading and Damien Oliver on Tom Melbourne will almost
certainly want to be making use of the inside barrier he has drawn.
Given this pace scenario it makes it that much more likely that the
midfield/backmarker horses will get their chance (even those from wide
barriers) providing there is no on pace, rails bias as we have seen so
often in Melbourne this Spring, and possibly in this race last year.

Analysis;

BLACK HEART BART– History doesn’t support him with
the weight and he did run in this race in 2015 with 58kg finishing out
of the placings. The big factors in his favour are a decent barrier draw
and his obvious class, in a race that does lack genuine Group 1 performers.No wins at a mile seems a little odd for such a prolific winner, and high class horse.
SCALES OF JUSTICE– He too looks to have the job
ahead with the weight especially comparing him with some of the locals
he has met in the past. On the flip side a horse called Luckygray won
this race on protest in 2011 with 53kg and was only just beaten in 2012
with 58kg, tjhen won it again in 2013 with that weight. This horse has
57.5kg and was a very dominant winner last year. Previous winners and
placegetters often repeat in this race so from that perspective he looks
good. The stable doesn’t seem overly confident though, and have cited
an interrupted preparation as the reason. Douglas Whyte going back
aboard might be a positive, but the likely pressure up front looks to be
a negative. He is 3/3 at a mile, and 2/2 this track and distance,
excellent stats.
TOM MELBOURNE– He looks the logical favourite in
the race from barrier 1 with his on pace pattern of racing. That should
afford him the ideal run in transit providing he doesn’t do anything
wrong. At the moment he is the greatest bridesmaid in Australian racing
and a nightmare for punters. That might change here, although his age of
7 isn’t a great historical pointer. It’s very hard to leave him out of
Quinella and First Four calculations but an outright bet will leave most
punters biting their fingernails even before the race is run.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND– He is one of the few horses here
that you can honestly say is in peak form, or ready to peak. Definitely
one of the most improved horses in the country over the past twelve
months, and the stable is red hot at present. He comes into this race
third up and is 2/3 at that stage of his preparation thus far. What I
can’t get my head around is just where he is going to be placed in the
run. Josh Parr almost certainly will go forward on him, but there seems
little hope he will get an economical run. If he does I think he is the
horse to beat.
ULMANN– I confess to not being able to understand
this horse at all. Early on I thought he was a dry tracker, and then he
won the Wangoom at Warnambool on a bog track. I thought he was the
logical pick in the Stradbroke last Winter but he did nothing in that
race. I thought his last effort was ordinary, and he just doesn’t seem
to run two races alike. The great hope is that he is looking for a mile,
and he does boast a second to Winx and a WFA third at this trip, as
well as a win in lower class. Barrier 4 (after scratchings) looks a
positive on paper but not sure it is in this big field. He got totally
lost in the Stradbroke from a similar barrier. A win wouldn’t surprise,
but I don’t think I’ll be in his corner.
GREAT SHOT– He looks the best weighted of the Perth
horses and is probably over the odds given a few close battles with
Scales Of Justice and the weight he receives off that horse here. He
also looks well in against all the other locals in the race on recent
meetings. No doubt he will give a big sight and probably won’t surrender
the lead easily, but I just doubt he can win at this level, with the
likely on pace pressure at this trip. Maybe his optimum distance is a
bit shy of 1600m but that’s inconclusive
SILVERSTREAM- A very in form 6yo mare whom William
Pike has chosen over a the stablemate Cosmic Storm. Barrier 17 (after
scratchings) really does seem to have cruelled her chances though, and
only a miracle ride from Pike is likely to result in her winning.
Whether 1600m is advantageous for her is questionable (0/2) and she
isn’t meeting a few locals worse at the weights for recent narrow wins.
ALL OUR ROADS- A former Kiwi in the Waller stable
who probably needed to draw well to be recommend him. No doubt he is
capable enough on recent form here but it’s just so hard to be upbeat
drawn out in no mans land.
COSMIC STORM- Statistically I’m in love. 4/4 at the
distance and 3/3 third up in her preparations. She comes off a below
par second up effort which shouldn’t be surprising as it has happened to
her a few times before. Her first up run was definitely adequate, and
although she has drawn out a little wide, having watched some of her
replays I feel she might be better suited off the rail, given her
smallish stature. Her form almost mirrors that of her ill fated
stablemate Elite Belle who won this race in 2014 third up, coming off a
2.5L unplaced effort. My enthusiasm has been tempered due to Bar Plates
going on, but at least she has won, and been runner up when they have
been applied in the past. She must have some sort of ongoing issue with
her feet that needs addressing. She looks a tremendous chance at the
price on offer, and I did at least read that it took William Pike about
24 hours to make up his mind not to ride her,
DISPOSITION– Possible that his best form is behind
him despite a meritorious win first up with a big weight at Kalgoorlie.
He has only been ordinary in easier class since so it’s difficult to be
confident about him despite a massive weight drop. Barrier draw is in
his favour though.
GATTING– He looks okay for this eace at the weights
off his first up effort meeting Great Shot 1kg better for that run. He
was there to win that day though and didn’t quite finish off. He
blotted his copybook second up, but returned to form in a much weaker
race over 1800m last start. That gives him an unorthodox preparation for
this race but a decent barrier and likely fast pace gives him a chance,
I’m doubting he’s nippy enough to beat most of these, and he would
prefer more distance, but he is one of only two four year olds in the
race (good historically, as is the barrier), and he did hit the line
well enough last start with Pike aboard.
MATERIAL MAN– Has looked one of the more
progressive horses in WA, and he looked very poorly weighted last week
in the RJ Peters with 59kg giving weight to seasoned Group class
performers. That was negated to a large degree by the soft lead he
received, and I expected him to just win given that scenario transpired.
He was gone after rounding the turn though, and although he whacked
away down the straight, I just can’t seem him winning this on that
performance. 2000m+ is probably more his forte anyway.
OBSERVATIONAL– He missed a run last week due to
Stewards intervention and it’s hard to get warm about him, against this
class, at this distance. Another 7yo (poor historically) who would need
everything to fall into place, but at least his draw is favourable, and
he did win second up last preparation. Trainer John Sadler has had
success in WA previously
POUNAMU– I was lucky enough to be on him when he
won first up recently in the Asian Beau at $20 odds where everything
fell into place for him, He got a great run in transit and a fast speed
to suit. That won’t have done him any harm though, and he received no
weight penalty for it. Much was expected of this horse in Sydney after
he ran a close second to Sweynesse in the Spring Stakes at Newcastle as a
3yo. That horse was less than two lengths off Adelaide in the Cox Plate
that Spring. That potential was never realised but his form in Perth
has become a lot more consisten,t and he has managed to win 5 of his
last 9 starts. And he loves this track having won 4 of his last 5 starts
here. The ‘failure’ was a 1.5L fourth at WFA over an unsuitable 1200m
behind the classy Rock Magic so it all looks positive for him coming
into this. Barrier 11 is maybe not ideal but the likely fast speed
should negate too wide a run for him. He will definitely need luck in
the straight but I feel if he can get that he will be right in the
finish. He can beat Scales Of Justice on past meetings with the 4.5kg
weight pull he has in this.
SOVEREIGN NATION– Looks one of the better chances
at the weights given he has placed at Group 1 level .Winkers go on but
didn’t produce any miracles the first time they were applied. He has
developed a bad habit of missing the start this preparation so maybe the
gear change will rectify that, but even if he does begin well that
doesn’t help his cause too much here from barrier 12, given he won’t get
near the lead. More likely he will get trapped wide. Watching his last
run doesn’t fill me with confidence either because he didn’t hit the
line all that well. He has has had a long preparation, but on the plus
side a three week break is probably ideal for him looking at his best
form. Definitely a hope if things fall into place and barrier 12 has
been oddly prolific in this race over the past decade or so.
VARIATION– Historically you would have to have him
on top, no doubt whatsoever. A 4yo, well drawn, capable of going forward
early, and coming off a placing in one of the better lead up races. He
has only missed a place once in 16 starts,and has a prolific winning
strike rate which is often the case with victors of this race. Backing
up from last week is a first for him so not sure what to expect,
although Perth horses generally do handle it. He had no hope last week
given he got back to last in a moderately run race, and I must say it
was a very odd ride (was questioned by stewards). I was all set to have
him as top pick but having watched the replay I’m disappointed at how he
hit the line. That coupled with a nagging doubt he is classy enough to
win, has me reserving my judgement a bit. But I’m wary that run might
have topped him off for this, and he is 3/3 at the distance (why would
he fail to run out 1500m last week?) and 2/2 this trip at Ascot.

If any of the Emergencies do get a run they do look to have lesser
chances than just about all of the runners in the original field.

Conclusion;

It might sound as though I have some idea in regard to who might win
this race, but in reality I probably don’t, and some very poor Spring
results this year don’t bolster the confidence much. Below is my Top 4,
but I could be way off the mark with so many realistic winning chances
in the race,

POUNAMU
COSMIC STORM
VARIATION
SUPPLY ND DEMAND

Any of those four could win, and luck in running is probably going to
decide the issue anyway. Leaving Tom Melbourne out of Exotics is
probably unwise….as I have managed to do here!.

Ridersonthestorm33 · November 2017

^^Early on in the week had about five or six horses thought couldn't win. Pounamu , Cosmic Storm and Variation were three of them...need to reasess. Every second or third person seems to give Pounamu a big hope.

Think the most even field have ever seen in Group One WA racing. No surprise to see one of the three favourites Scales Of Justice , Black Heart or Tom Melbourne win....but not beyond the realms of possibility all three could miss a place.

Tradesman maybe battling a little and Royal Star more of an up and comer but the fact those two couldn't get into the top 16...says Railway Stakes 2017 is a cracker of a field and incredibly even.

Get the eastern states horses here for a Perth Cup and that too can be a great race again.

JayJay · November 2017

I'm a total ignoramous on galloping form ...and I know its different than harness racing with horses having preferred distances etc. I keep reading it is a great race, very evenly balanced etc etc.But for a group 1, it doesn't appear to me to have much quality....yes, BHB is a beauty but not at the mile. Scales of Justice very good but not a "great" horse and is he in top form?, Tom Melbourne, the class of the race I think but he always runs second. For a million bucks, it hasn't attracted a "great" field. The Eastern Staters would probably (just guessing) have never heard of Pounamu or Variation etc. So even? Absolutely, great? not so sure. In a fortnight, there will be a great race ....arguably, the best 4 horses in Australia and New Zealand and yet as I have said before, it's a national secret....The Railway hasn't got the best 4 milers in Australia running in it. That said, it should be a ripper race and I will extinguish Tom's chances by having a go with him. Right, I'll just head outside and seek cover for committing thoroughbred sacrilege.

Ridersonthestorm33 · November 2017

Just checking up on the form of the Victorian Observational he will go around 50/1 at least...his efforts on occasions have been terrific. Won't be in my daily double...but if was to run up to previous good form - possible massive boilover. Good trainer John Saddler too.

The only horse have put a line through with confidence is Tonkatuff...but if gotta start :-? ....no not really...no chance whatsoever!

Ridersonthestorm33 · November 2017

Why were the old doubles called a ' Daily Double' ?...possibly harking back to the days when their was just one double covered at the meeting...think it was like races 6 and 8 or 7 and 9...then they made it the final two races.

After that it was running doubles on every race meeting that was going! Was a very popular bet type when the tote ran just the one double at a meeting.

Think Victoria had a daily double and an extra double and that was it for them as well.

Fastmoney · November 2017

TorpedoPunt · November 2017

Fastmoney said:
Brisburghphil preview

These are the most pertinent historical statistics;

11/15 have carried less than 55.5kg to win, and 13/15 carried less
than 56.5kg. 2007 winner El Presidente carried 55.5kg but was only 0.5kg
over the minimum that year. 6 of the last 7 winners have carried 53.5kg
or less. The only one not too was the dual winner Luckygray In 2011 and
2013, He had also run second in 2012 carrying 58kg.
13/15 dropped in weight from their prior start, and 13/15 didn’t
rise in weight. The average weight drop over this period is roughly 3kg.
No horse has won rising more than 1kg off it’s last start
11/15 have been either 4 or 5 years of age, and only 2 horses have
won beyond 6 years of age since 1989. 4yo’s have won 10 of the last 18,
and 17 of the past 37.
The Lee Steere Classic and RJ Peters Stakes have produced 10 of the
past 15 winners. Of the others Mr Moet was first up. Sniper’s Bullet,
Gathering and Good Project came via Melbourne through albeit different
races, and Luckgray came through the Asian Beau Stakes to win
controversially on protest.
13/15 placed in the first 4 at their prior start, and all bar one of
those has been a WA galloper. 26 winners since 1985 finished 1st, 2nd
or 3rd at their prior start. Stick with an in form galloper! 2 of the 3
Eastern States winners in recent times were well beaten at their
previous start (Sniper’s Bullet & Gathering)
9/15 have won from barriers 1-9, and 14/15 from barriers 1-12.
Hardrada won from barrier 13 in 2003 but the race was run at Belmont
that year. Oddly five of the past seven winners have come out of barrier
11 or 12, (four from barrier 12) as did Northerly in 2000. Providing
the horse has the early pace to get across to lead, or be on the pace
early a wide barrier is no disadvantage, the perfect example being Good
Project winning in 2015. Either that or your horse needs to drop out to
the tail early (Luckygray twice, and Elite Belle). Caught midfield off a
wide barrier here is almost always fatal. Getting the speed map right
for this race is critical.
4 of the past 15 winners had run in this race in one of the past two years. 3 of those had been runner up.
4 of the past 6 winners have come from a midfield or worse position
to win, which is a total reversal for this race which was largely
dominated by on pace horses (or those sitting on pace to midfield) in
the decade prior.
13/15 had raced in Perth at some stage before winning. Gathering in
2010 is the only one not to have done so, and he got a soft lead off a
very suitable (for him) 27 day break leading in.
Only 3 Stallions had won the race in the past 27 years. Good Project
broke the drought in 2015, with the previous being Island Morn in 1994.
Average winning price is around $10 and that is consistent with the results over more than a 20 year period.
Only 3 mares have won in the past 16 years and two of those at ages of 5 & 6.

3 of the past thirteen winners (but 3 of last 8) have come from the
Eastern States. All have been Sydney trained and came out of a last
start Spring carnival run in Melbourne, and all have been on pace
runners.

Summing up the ideal historical candidate would be;

4 to 6 years of age, B) finished in the first 4 placings last start, C)Carrying less than 55.5kg, D) Coming froma barrier no wider than 12, E) had a lead up run in the Lee Steere or RJ Peters and F) be dropping in weight 2.5kg or more. G) Preferably be a Gelding or Mare. Finding one with all these pre requisites at close to or at a double figure quote would be ideal.

Tempo;

It does look as though we will have a genuine early speed in the race
with the likes of Great Shot, Scales Of Justice, Material Man, Supply
And Demand and possibly All Our Roads going forward early. All are
capable of leading and Damien Oliver on Tom Melbourne will almost
certainly want to be making use of the inside barrier he has drawn.
Given this pace scenario it makes it that much more likely that the
midfield/backmarker horses will get their chance (even those from wide
barriers) providing there is no on pace, rails bias as we have seen so
often in Melbourne this Spring, and possibly in this race last year.

Analysis;

BLACK HEART BART– History doesn’t support him with
the weight and he did run in this race in 2015 with 58kg finishing out
of the placings. The big factors in his favour are a decent barrier draw
and his obvious class, in a race that does lack genuine Group 1 performers.No wins at a mile seems a little odd for such a prolific winner, and high class horse.
SCALES OF JUSTICE– He too looks to have the job
ahead with the weight especially comparing him with some of the locals
he has met in the past. On the flip side a horse called Luckygray won
this race on protest in 2011 with 53kg and was only just beaten in 2012
with 58kg, tjhen won it again in 2013 with that weight. This horse has
57.5kg and was a very dominant winner last year. Previous winners and
placegetters often repeat in this race so from that perspective he looks
good. The stable doesn’t seem overly confident though, and have cited
an interrupted preparation as the reason. Douglas Whyte going back
aboard might be a positive, but the likely pressure up front looks to be
a negative. He is 3/3 at a mile, and 2/2 this track and distance,
excellent stats.
TOM MELBOURNE– He looks the logical favourite in
the race from barrier 1 with his on pace pattern of racing. That should
afford him the ideal run in transit providing he doesn’t do anything
wrong. At the moment he is the greatest bridesmaid in Australian racing
and a nightmare for punters. That might change here, although his age of
7 isn’t a great historical pointer. It’s very hard to leave him out of
Quinella and First Four calculations but an outright bet will leave most
punters biting their fingernails even before the race is run.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND– He is one of the few horses here
that you can honestly say is in peak form, or ready to peak. Definitely
one of the most improved horses in the country over the past twelve
months, and the stable is red hot at present. He comes into this race
third up and is 2/3 at that stage of his preparation thus far. What I
can’t get my head around is just where he is going to be placed in the
run. Josh Parr almost certainly will go forward on him, but there seems
little hope he will get an economical run. If he does I think he is the
horse to beat.
ULMANN– I confess to not being able to understand
this horse at all. Early on I thought he was a dry tracker, and then he
won the Wangoom at Warnambool on a bog track. I thought he was the
logical pick in the Stradbroke last Winter but he did nothing in that
race. I thought his last effort was ordinary, and he just doesn’t seem
to run two races alike. The great hope is that he is looking for a mile,
and he does boast a second to Winx and a WFA third at this trip, as
well as a win in lower class. Barrier 4 (after scratchings) looks a
positive on paper but not sure it is in this big field. He got totally
lost in the Stradbroke from a similar barrier. A win wouldn’t surprise,
but I don’t think I’ll be in his corner.
GREAT SHOT– He looks the best weighted of the Perth
horses and is probably over the odds given a few close battles with
Scales Of Justice and the weight he receives off that horse here. He
also looks well in against all the other locals in the race on recent
meetings. No doubt he will give a big sight and probably won’t surrender
the lead easily, but I just doubt he can win at this level, with the
likely on pace pressure at this trip. Maybe his optimum distance is a
bit shy of 1600m but that’s inconclusive
SILVERSTREAM- A very in form 6yo mare whom William
Pike has chosen over a the stablemate Cosmic Storm. Barrier 17 (after
scratchings) really does seem to have cruelled her chances though, and
only a miracle ride from Pike is likely to result in her winning.
Whether 1600m is advantageous for her is questionable (0/2) and she
isn’t meeting a few locals worse at the weights for recent narrow wins.
ALL OUR ROADS- A former Kiwi in the Waller stable
who probably needed to draw well to be recommend him. No doubt he is
capable enough on recent form here but it’s just so hard to be upbeat
drawn out in no mans land.
COSMIC STORM- Statistically I’m in love. 4/4 at the
distance and 3/3 third up in her preparations. She comes off a below
par second up effort which shouldn’t be surprising as it has happened to
her a few times before. Her first up run was definitely adequate, and
although she has drawn out a little wide, having watched some of her
replays I feel she might be better suited off the rail, given her
smallish stature. Her form almost mirrors that of her ill fated
stablemate Elite Belle who won this race in 2014 third up, coming off a
2.5L unplaced effort. My enthusiasm has been tempered due to Bar Plates
going on, but at least she has won, and been runner up when they have
been applied in the past. She must have some sort of ongoing issue with
her feet that needs addressing. She looks a tremendous chance at the
price on offer, and I did at least read that it took William Pike about
24 hours to make up his mind not to ride her,
DISPOSITION– Possible that his best form is behind
him despite a meritorious win first up with a big weight at Kalgoorlie.
He has only been ordinary in easier class since so it’s difficult to be
confident about him despite a massive weight drop. Barrier draw is in
his favour though.
GATTING– He looks okay for this eace at the weights
off his first up effort meeting Great Shot 1kg better for that run. He
was there to win that day though and didn’t quite finish off. He
blotted his copybook second up, but returned to form in a much weaker
race over 1800m last start. That gives him an unorthodox preparation for
this race but a decent barrier and likely fast pace gives him a chance,
I’m doubting he’s nippy enough to beat most of these, and he would
prefer more distance, but he is one of only two four year olds in the
race (good historically, as is the barrier), and he did hit the line
well enough last start with Pike aboard.
MATERIAL MAN– Has looked one of the more
progressive horses in WA, and he looked very poorly weighted last week
in the RJ Peters with 59kg giving weight to seasoned Group class
performers. That was negated to a large degree by the soft lead he
received, and I expected him to just win given that scenario transpired.
He was gone after rounding the turn though, and although he whacked
away down the straight, I just can’t seem him winning this on that
performance. 2000m+ is probably more his forte anyway.
OBSERVATIONAL– He missed a run last week due to
Stewards intervention and it’s hard to get warm about him, against this
class, at this distance. Another 7yo (poor historically) who would need
everything to fall into place, but at least his draw is favourable, and
he did win second up last preparation. Trainer John Sadler has had
success in WA previously
POUNAMU– I was lucky enough to be on him when he
won first up recently in the Asian Beau at $20 odds where everything
fell into place for him, He got a great run in transit and a fast speed
to suit. That won’t have done him any harm though, and he received no
weight penalty for it. Much was expected of this horse in Sydney after
he ran a close second to Sweynesse in the Spring Stakes at Newcastle as a
3yo. That horse was less than two lengths off Adelaide in the Cox Plate
that Spring. That potential was never realised but his form in Perth
has become a lot more consisten,t and he has managed to win 5 of his
last 9 starts. And he loves this track having won 4 of his last 5 starts
here. The ‘failure’ was a 1.5L fourth at WFA over an unsuitable 1200m
behind the classy Rock Magic so it all looks positive for him coming
into this. Barrier 11 is maybe not ideal but the likely fast speed
should negate too wide a run for him. He will definitely need luck in
the straight but I feel if he can get that he will be right in the
finish. He can beat Scales Of Justice on past meetings with the 4.5kg
weight pull he has in this.
SOVEREIGN NATION– Looks one of the better chances
at the weights given he has placed at Group 1 level .Winkers go on but
didn’t produce any miracles the first time they were applied. He has
developed a bad habit of missing the start this preparation so maybe the
gear change will rectify that, but even if he does begin well that
doesn’t help his cause too much here from barrier 12, given he won’t get
near the lead. More likely he will get trapped wide. Watching his last
run doesn’t fill me with confidence either because he didn’t hit the
line all that well. He has has had a long preparation, but on the plus
side a three week break is probably ideal for him looking at his best
form. Definitely a hope if things fall into place and barrier 12 has
been oddly prolific in this race over the past decade or so.
VARIATION– Historically you would have to have him
on top, no doubt whatsoever. A 4yo, well drawn, capable of going forward
early, and coming off a placing in one of the better lead up races. He
has only missed a place once in 16 starts,and has a prolific winning
strike rate which is often the case with victors of this race. Backing
up from last week is a first for him so not sure what to expect,
although Perth horses generally do handle it. He had no hope last week
given he got back to last in a moderately run race, and I must say it
was a very odd ride (was questioned by stewards). I was all set to have
him as top pick but having watched the replay I’m disappointed at how he
hit the line. That coupled with a nagging doubt he is classy enough to
win, has me reserving my judgement a bit. But I’m wary that run might
have topped him off for this, and he is 3/3 at the distance (why would
he fail to run out 1500m last week?) and 2/2 this trip at Ascot.

If any of the Emergencies do get a run they do look to have lesser
chances than just about all of the runners in the original field.

Conclusion;

It might sound as though I have some idea in regard to who might win
this race, but in reality I probably don’t, and some very poor Spring
results this year don’t bolster the confidence much. Below is my Top 4,
but I could be way off the mark with so many realistic winning chances
in the race,

POUNAMU
COSMIC STORM
VARIATION
SUPPLY ND DEMAND

Any of those four could win, and luck in running is probably going to
decide the issue anyway. Leaving Tom Melbourne out of Exotics is
probably unwise….as I have managed to do here!.

51.00 Pounamu for the KT

jum · November 2017

JayJay said:
I'm a total ignoramous on galloping form ...and I know its different than harness racing with horses having preferred distances etc. I keep reading it is a great race, very evenly balanced etc etc.But for a group 1, it doesn't appear to me to have much quality....yes, BHB is a beauty but not at the mile. Scales of Justice very good but not a "great" horse and is he in top form?, Tom Melbourne, the class of the race I think but he always runs second. For a million bucks, it hasn't attracted a "great" field. The Eastern Staters would probably (just guessing) have never heard of Pounamu or Variation etc. So even? Absolutely, great? not so sure. In a fortnight, there will be a great race ....arguably, the best 4 horses in Australia and New Zealand and yet as I have said before, it's a national secret....The Railway hasn't got the best 4 milers in Australia running in it. That said, it should be a ripper race and I will extinguish Tom's chances by having a go with him. Right, I'll just head outside and seek cover for committing thoroughbred sacrilege.

:-j You made me laugh JJ, Yes the inters has the best 4 horse in Australasia. but it is also the richest race in the southern hemisphere by a long way if i'm correct. that is why they are here.

Love the inters concept, except for the fact that we wont see it here for a long time after this year.

XuanLing · November 2017

I wish Galmour all the best with Gatting on Saturday... A very loyal owner of the impressive racing stable....
Clearly well collected to the stable as he wears Dmac’s 2nd hand suits...

Chris · November 2017

Think JayJay is on the ball

Ridersonthestorm33 · November 2017

Recall saying to a trainer once...'think you're a big chance in the ( Perth ) Cup, it's not a strong field this year and his reply...

'no it's not..but you ever tried to win one ?'

H-BOMBER · November 2017

I've just stuck with my gut and backed Silver stream each way at $16. She has wonderful lead up form and should be unbeaten 3/3 this prep. Small field but loved how she attacked the line at 1400 WFA and drops 3.5 on that run. Is right there just over the minimum and looks a different horse with Durrant now that they think she'll get ground. Yes the barrier is not ideal but 3 wide moving line at the 600m getting a trail could work of they are running on. Throw in states best trainer, jockey and owner and I think she's a great chance. Of anyone can win from 20 its Pike and Durrant. Best of luck can't wait!

G'day Punter!

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