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Harness & Greyhounds
Ridersonthestorm33
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Just the one place bet tomorrow night - short but sweet - the old number 10 with the soft run trick - race 1, if around $1.50 a place available will lock and load on Suspicous Life to trail through on the back of the odds on favourite and at least hold his ground into the placings.
Talking of $1.50 one of the corporates in race 2 has gone up Bronze Seeker at 1/2 :-O goodness gracious. The out of form nine year old ( 0, 8, 0, 9 ) has the coveted number one draw in a weak field but just a $1.50 :-\" A bolter for long shot punters might be the 50/1 chance #8. Trustytrev.
The roughie of the night in race 3 is awkwardly drawn in barrier 6 and no doubt will get back in a good field, so around 16/1 to 20/1 is about his right price but a win is nigh for Courage Tells. Was a very good effort last week, a win around the corner think for him.
Talking of $1.50 one of the corporates in race 2 has gone up Bronze Seeker at 1/2 :-O goodness gracious. The out of form nine year old ( 0, 8, 0, 9 ) has the coveted number one draw in a weak field but just a $1.50 :-\" A bolter for long shot punters might be the 50/1 chance #8. Trustytrev.
The roughie of the night in race 3 is awkwardly drawn in barrier 6 and no doubt will get back in a good field, so around 16/1 to 20/1 is about his right price but a win is nigh for Courage Tells. Was a very good effort last week, a win around the corner think for him.
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Only 4 possible chances in the field of 12 ( 1,3,6 and 10 ) and he's one of them, just hoping not the one that misses out.
Went awful two starts ago, but he's a lot better than that and last effort ok, drawn on the back of the odds on favourite Back To The Beach tomorrow and that should provide him with a soft run into a drum.
Ridersonthestorm33, Thunderstruck likes this post.
Luis Alberto looks hard to beat but even he's just a $1.70 from the bullet draw - two runs ago didn't give a yelp when weakening out of it as a $1.30 favourite when drew barrier one ( of course ) then last week was beaten 37 metres by Robert The Bruce.
However just $2.60 sheeeeesh, won't be backing him at those odds to see if they've sorted him out!
Will be interesting to see which direction he goes in the market odds.
Similarly I though Chirascuru would zip across and win the last race, price seems great.
Other bets for the night Ardens Concorde, Trison and Catastrophic Event who all look to get good trips.
Frankthetank likes this post.
The reason I thought he would cross and hold is driver based. If Voak or McDonald were on then yeah I would think that way but im just expecting Lewis to rate up a bit and try and pinch another GP win.
You my friend are another that’s a perfect example of an idiot
PackedMetalPanda likes this post.
Luis Alberto - gate one - odds on cough cough.
Bronze Seeker - gate one - did get out in the market a little but seriously. ( Was a good thing beat though haha )
Mattjestic Star - gate one - the only odds you'd take was that he would gallop - he did!
The other certainty was that Suspicous Life would get hopelessly boxed in - he did! As soon as saw Suvalkjko head off the overrated Louis Alberto it made it tough for me and the Suspicous one ~X(
Courage Tells - needs it weaker, three wide without cover at the bell - good night.
Trustytrev - well driven the 80/1 chance looked a place chance on the corner not a bad fifth - unfortunately they don't pay on that.
And that's now another one to Hall.
The old gate one $1.36 trick. Does have Suvaljko.
Think the trifecta is the go here, anchoring Back To The Beach 2nd and 3rd and praying [-O< that one of the only three possible dangers can beat him - 3. Fanci A Dance 6. Chiaroscuro 10. Courage To Live.
The trifecta - easier than government work!
Fanci A Dance - Clever confident drive Woodley - and a good run.
Chiaroscuro - very good horse. Like him.
Back To The Beach - :-j fell into third by default.
Courage To Live - no luck - would have whooshed past the Beach.
$108 trifecta and a $283 first four on the only four possible chances - Tabcorp you're giving it away!
Tonight SP $1.38 :-??
Barrier One on under the odds horses - Come In Spinner.
The early odds prices - fraught with danger - mainly because you're betting into such a high %. Can't ever understand punters betting into markets of around 130 -140% or worse.
Anybody who consistently wins betting into high % markets deserves best punter of all time award. How you find 'overs' when the %s are that high - fascinating. Give me around a 110% market half hour before the race anyday of the week.
curmudgeon likes this post.
Poor night for the 10 horses last night, Woodley got the Prayer horse into a place from the ten. But horses like Suspicous Life and Courage To Live both from the ten never got a crack at them.
Will be along time before Luis Alberto runs odds on again surely, couldn't lead but then had a great run, finished off fairly, but when taking $1.75 you'd expect better.
The night a few weeks ago when he knocked up badly at $1.30 from the one should have assured he'd never be odds on again.
Actually finding the winner in the early markets is where the moneys to be made obviously with exception, but a reasonable example was last night She Could Be Good opened $3.60 and was taken in the first minute of market release price never to be seen again.. Daily the prices are smashed as soon as market release, find the Bookie errors and take advantage
Ridersonthestorm33, PackedMetalPanda likes this post.
Riders I've been reading your posts for a while and have noticed you are partial to a behind the leader , three back place bet. Your theory is sound but you're betting in the wrong state and at the wrong odds.
One night at Moonee Valley trots I've hit a trifecta basically straight down the line on a jackpot race for units into the $50s units...leader, leaders back, three back...was in the Tab jumped up, had it....then about 50 metres from the line the third horse galloped all of its own accord! Was cursing on that one.
For awhile there that type of trifecta could pay anywhere from $50 to $120 ( with a roughie involved in the placings ) but now with everybody awake to it they sometimes pay as little as $7 to $15. With a lot of straight down the line money invested on it. Occasionaly the third horse roughie ( inside of back row ) can pay $10 a place and the trifecta pays less!
The other thing am a big fan of and for week after week at Gloucester Park several years ago in the standing starts the horses off the front line would often run 1,2,3,4 ...and at prices. Still think it's a reasonable system too. Moreso in the even fields.
But the leader, leaders back and three back can be costly too...as soon as Luis Alberto was crossed that made it difficult for Suspicous Life and there was Courage To Live caught behind a battling Back To The Beach.
Sometimes can get a bit slack too thinking..this will lead, this will trail, this will be three back and that's how they'll finish...if it was that easy would be a mile in front.
The perfect race was the one the other night with Jack Mac, the Woodley horse in the one and the ten horse three back. There the ones that give confidence that it can happen easily. But even that trifecta with War Club at $2.60 a drum and Robshaw at $2.90 only paid $10. The first four paid $50 a better option. ( Once Mr. Spot missed fourth ).
Always though had a soft spot for horses off the front line in the standing starts. Think the advantage was great back then for a roughie to run a drum and that's still the case. For awhile recently nearly every standing start event barriers 1 to 6 off the front filled at least three of the first four often between 8/1 and 20/1 or better.
Two runs ago when Back To The Beach got headed after the start and was caught in behind them..a sprint lane would have been interesting there because I'm not sure if he had much in the tank anyway. Seemed a bit flat to me, perhaps last Friday that was proven . No for sprint lanes for me though, but I'm slightly open to them. Think horses that have worked hard in the run deserve better.
Betonme likes this post.
Protected species.. Not even a good bloke
Frankthetank, Constantlybroke, Rex likes this post.
Yeah I second that!