New Handicapping System for the Trots

sonny · April 2023

Hi Marko , I think RR was was talking about himself and was said in jest(when you stuff things up) as we all do when frustrated..

Markovina · April 2023

sonny said:
Hi Marko , I think RR was was talking about himself and was said in jest(when you stuff things up) as we all do when frustrated..

No - im not buying that one iota

There are some words that are nasty - hurtful and cutting - and if you have any class and decency you never use them in the context mentioned

Its like abbreviating the Aboriginal word -which is very hurtful and cutting - and anyone with any class and dignity wouldnt dream of doing that

jum · April 2023

LightningJake said:

.
•DAVID HUNTER is the Chief Racing Officer of RWWA. He is responsible for all 3 codes.

And hasn't all 3 codes just flourished under him. He really has a soft spot for the country codes

:-j

Gilgamesh · October 2023

Listening to Gareth Hall and Anthony Butt this morning they suggested the crazy idea that we might occasionally be better off to use the mobile barrier draw as a form of handicapping races. What a novel idea to use the one tool that we have available as a means of handicapping.

They even went as far as to suggest it could create a better spectacle. Outrageous to think that generating interest in races might actually be a worthy consideration to a handicapping system.

JayJay · October 2023

Gareth and Ants clearly on the cooking sherry way too early. Outrageous suggestion, just ask Kerry Hanks how she got on after making similar suggestions.

JayJay · October 2023

Email circulating from Cameron Brown announcing an independent review of Harness Handicapping to be carried out by John Dumesny with feedback requested from participants, 6 week process.Will try and post the link. Review will focus on comparing NR system against our current system which has been operational in some form for 5 years now, and will be making a recommendation on what future direction to take.

[email protected]

Actual email won't copy and paste.

Chopchop43 · October 2023

Both systems are universally hated by the people who are using them so damned if we do revert to the nr system damned if we don't, in my opinion I'd be quiet happy to keep the one we got

LightningJake · October 2023

Chopchop43 said:
Both systems are universally hated by the people who are using them so damned if we do revert to the nr system damned if we don't, in my opinion I'd be quiet happy to keep the one we got

Tend to agree. Sometimes it's better the devil you know than don't know.

But what about if we went back to the MCR system we originally had, with only a few tweaks like capping the drop back rule to only 1 or 2 class drops total? It was the neverending dropback rule that really helped ruin the MCR handicapping system.

PackedMetalPanda · October 2023

LightningJake said:

Chopchop43 said:
Both systems are universally hated by the people who are using them so damned if we do revert to the nr system damned if we don't, in my opinion I'd be quiet happy to keep the one we got
Tend to agree. Sometimes it's better the devil you know than don't know.

But what about if we went back to the MCR system we originally had, with only a few tweaks like capping the drop back rule to only 1 or 2 class drops total? It was the neverending dropback rule that really helped ruin the MCR handicapping system.

It also increased longevity to horses racing as they could be guaranteed to find a winnable race or class.

People kept horses around more during that time because they could drop back into a suitable grade. Longevity to racing means more horses and therefore better fields and turnover.

Thereugo was a FFA pacer and is now down to the L5 LT4k where he is still struggling to win a race. Under the old MCR system he would be a C1/M1

JayJay · October 2023

The drop back rule for metro racing is drop back on "steroids" and has taken the previously much criticised drop back in M/C/R to stratospheric heights.

A horse racing in $L5 $20k races can theoretically run 5 seconds earning around 17k (or similar....3 seconds, a fifth and a third) and because he hasn't actually won, can drop back on top of $L5 $12k horses. A horse he raced against, out of form and running unplaced 5 times can drop back with him. With RBD, the form horse can draw barrier 1, go around at $1.10 with no turnover or interest from the people we have lost to harness betting, in a leader biased procession on a leader biased track, beat up the inferior opposition and then cycle through again for the next 5 starts. It is snoozefest racing but dare criticise it and you have a on your back, it's unfair to penalise the successful arguers materialise in an instant.

There are restrictions on that happening in the country $L5 races. Placings in higher level $L5 races prevent freefall drop back

Various minor tweaks have been repeatedly suggested by many people to correct this situation and they have been repeatedly knocked back by City Hall.

The product is terrible which is why our share of turnover has plummeted
to less than 12% of overall turnover and the return on dollars paid out is down to 42 cents in
the dollar.

A return of 42 cents in the dollar on a 7 x $6,240 meeting
at say Narrogin with a stakes payout of $45,000 means a loss of $23,000 on that meeting. A return of 42
cents in the dollar on a typical 10 race card at Gloucester Park paying
out on average $250,000 in stakes is a loss of $145,000 on that
meeting. Imagine the loss on a "big night" like the twin sales races at
$215,000 each when stakes payout is $500,000 in round figures. Cheerio to $300,000.

That situation as a business model is totally unsustainable and change MUST occur....be it to the handicapping, RBD/PBD, drop back rule and overall racing product. It is a stunning to think that RWWA will stump up $24.7 million of Industry funds and the end product at GP will still be an 800m track at a venue that no one attends. The "turnover central" fan club's claims ring very hollow when you see just what a burden race meetings are at GP on the industry when you consider the huge loss of money at each meeting.

Yes, they have the highest turnover in the best slot with the best horses and drivers and the highest stakes but if their turnover claims had any voracity, why is our market share sliding downwards towards oblivion. And when you add on the $3.7 million that GP receives from RWWA per annum just to run the meetings, it is eye wateringly expensive turnover.

The current situation can't continue, changes must be made. We are an unsustainable business. Fact.

Markovina · October 2023

Interesting discussion so far - the 1st thing i say - its only light hearted - not suggesting it for one moment - but the 2nd point i will be serious

I can remember - and i will put my house on this fact - that it actually occurred - but to spice things up a bit - many many many many years ago at the Royal Melb Showgrounds - i think they might have had a 650 metre track - but tiny little track - but this race got a hell of alot of publicity at the time

They had a marathon race - now at HP and RMS - they would regularly hold long races like 2900 yards - and something could start on 108 yards etc .

But this race was nearly 4000 yards - and what they did was they offered prizemoney - very good money at the time - for each lap leader - like say 300 pound - so you can imagine what happened 2-3 of them would have a race down the home straight each lap - to get that prizemoney - who cares if you end up getting beaten 150 yards - a good earn is a good earn - they only held that race once though - hah

Re the handicapping - isnt it interesting John Dumseny - he was a heavy hitter at HP - they dont like their handicapping system - and some in WA dont like theirs

Said this many times - couldnt careless what handicapping system they have got - if WA rebuilt GP - so it has got a brilliant 950 metre sensationally cambered track - WA Trotting goes through the roof - and WA Metro harness racing becomes easily the best Harness Racing in Australia - end of discussion

JayJay · October 2023

Chopchop43 said:
Both systems are universally hated by the people who are using them so damned if we do revert to the nr system damned if we don't, in my opinion I'd be quiet happy to keep the one we got

Both systems have built in faults that go completely against the basic concept of a handicapping system. Neither in my view are handicap systems. NR tend to use PBD a bit more and that at least introduces a slither of handicapping into the equation.

With NR, more points are "lost" per race than are gained (especially in fully subscribed lower class races) and therefore, there are more horses dropping down and it is a race to the bottom of the class pyramid. The "shape" of the pool of horses, ideally a pyramid with a broad base of lower class horses, is skewed by the continual injection of higher class horses dropping down in ratings points until they find easy pickings.It too is a "yo yo system".

With HWOE or Conditioned races (call it what you like), the "drop back on steroids" as described above, has precisely the same effect on the shape of the pyramid. Simply put, there are far more horses "dropping back" than are going up. The shape of the Pyramid of horse classes is equally skewed. In addition to this, HWOE has been predominately RBD so that "Mr Dropback" can draw gate 1 against poorer class horses on a leader biased track and you get non competitive racing with some horses who have won north of $300k racing against low ability country class battlers.

Neither system could be considered a "handicap system" where high class horses rise to the top of the pyramid (like we used to have in the old (very old) "2.28 and better system" with no drop backs) and you get "like v like" racing. Rather than recycle, the philosophy then was "renew" and the breeding industry was two or three times (at least) the size it is now.Our breeding system doesn't produce sufficient horse to have a sustainable population and thus there are vast numbers of very capable horses imported who charge through the systems and then pop off to the USA per favour of the favorable exchange rate. These big stables are doing nothing wrong, breaking no rules, but the effect they are having on the numbers of licensed personnel is devastating for the Industry. It has created a rush for the exits.

Both systems have lower class races more likely to be fully subscribed or over subscribed leading to the splitting of races into division 1, division 2 and in some cases division 3, especially in HWOE $L5 races. This just exacerbates the skewing of the shape of the class pyramid. You end up with the same "Yo Yo horses" going back and forth, beating the same opposition they beat 5 starts earlier and if they happen to draw well, betting is stifled and interest in the product sinks even lower.

Some of the really big successful punters love the systems, they can "buy" $1.08 money on a least a couple of races each week but your average punter that we have completely lost to harness says "Nup, mystery trifecta on the dogs suits better than attempting to get bank interest". The reduction of harness's overall share of turnover to under 12% (from over 20% when RWWA was introduced) is both undeniable and a working proof in progress of the extent to which punters have rejected betting on our product

It will be interesting to see what John Dumesny comes up with. I thought Cameron Browns job description was to conduct the review of handicapping and programming (another really big issue). either way, we have a chance to offer feedback by submitting our thoughts and I think we should all afford ourselves of that opportunity, regardless of where we sit on either system. Perhaps, something new may come out of the review, something that is more akin to the principles of actual handicapping.

JayJay · October 2023

PackedMetalPanda said:

LightningJake said:
Thereugo was a FFA pacer and is now down to the L5 LT4k where he is still struggling to win a race. Under the old MCR system he would be a C1/M1

Incorrect, Thereugo
would not be in R1/C1/M1 in the old system. "Aussie Battler" has done the arithmetic. At best he would
be in Claiming races if the old system remained.

Based on his life time performance record with a metro stakes win 39 starts ago on October 8, 2021 (along with numerous non penalty metro placings in between), Thereugo would have dropped to a C16/R18/M3 based on his LTP (life time performances) with $262k in the bank from his 148 starts.

The fact that he is in $L5 $4k races reinforces the "drop back on steroids' label as being frighteningly accurate and as far away from handicapping as you can possibly get.

Rocket_Reign · October 2023

JayJay said:

PackedMetalPanda said:

LightningJake said:
Thereugo was a FFA pacer and is now down to the L5 LT4k where he is still struggling to win a race. Under the old MCR system he would be a C1/M1
Incorrect, Thereugo
would not be in R1/C1/M1 in the old system. "Aussie Battler" has done the arithmetic. At best he would
be in Claiming races if the old system remained.

Based on his life time performance record with a metro stakes win 39 starts ago on October 8, 2021 (along with numerous non penalty metro placings in between), Thereugo would have dropped to a C16/R18/M3 based on his LTP (life time performances) with $262k in the bank from his 148 starts.
The fact that he is in $L5 $4k races reinforces the "drop back on steroids' label as being frighteningly accurate and as far away from handicapping as you can possibly get.

The whole point is they drop back to find their level, then they win and they head back up again if they’re making it all the way back to the 4K race there’s a reason for it

JayJay · October 2023

The whole point is that under both these so called handicap systems, Harness Market share continues to plummet to hithertoo never seen depths...well under 12 % of overall turnover and returning now 42 cents in the dollar on stakes paid. It is unsustainable, it can't continue, it is living way beyond it's means.

Tell me how Wooliies or BHP would last in a free market place if they invested $100 million and lost $58 million. They would go broke and shut down. Something has to change in an awful big hurry.

Rocket_Reign · October 2023

JayJay said:
The whole point is that under both these so called handicap systems, Harness Market share continues to plummet to hithertoo never seen depths...well under 12 % of overall turnover and returning now 42 cents in the dollar on stakes paid. It is unsustainable, it can't continue, it is living way beyond it's means.

Tell me how Wooliies or BHP would last in a free market place if they invested $100 million and lost $58 million. They would go broke and shut down. Something has to change in an awful big hurry.

Yeah not sure the handicapping system is to blame for that.

Chopchop43 · October 2023

JayJay said:

PackedMetalPanda said:

LightningJake said:
Thereugo was a FFA pacer and is now down to the L5 LT4k where he is still struggling to win a race. Under the old MCR system he would be a C1/M1
Incorrect, Thereugo
would not be in R1/C1/M1 in the old system. "Aussie Battler" has done the arithmetic. At best he would
be in Claiming races if the old system remained.

Based on his life time performance record with a metro stakes win 39 starts ago on October 8, 2021 (along with numerous non penalty metro placings in between), Thereugo would have dropped to a C16/R18/M3 based on his LTP (life time performances) with $262k in the bank from his 148 starts.
The fact that he is in $L5 $4k races reinforces the "drop back on steroids' label as being frighteningly accurate and as far away from handicapping as you can possibly get.

with no disrespect for the horse and its connections I'd say the $l5 Lt4k is probably the correct class for thereugo to be racing in at the moment going off its form the last 12 months ???

JayJay · October 2023

Chopchop43 said:

with no disrespect for the horse and its connections I'd say the $l5 Lt4k is probably the correct class for thereugo to be racing in at the moment going off its form the last 12 months ???

"Every horse meets it's Waterloo".

He is 11 years old, has won 24 races and $262k in stakes. He has done a fantastic job.

Chopchop43 · October 2023

JayJay said:

Chopchop43 said:

with no disrespect for the horse and its connections I'd say the $l5 Lt4k is probably the correct class for thereugo to be racing in at the moment going off its form the last 12 months ???

"Every horse meets it's Waterloo".

He is 11 years old, has won 24 races and $262k in stakes. He has done a fantastic job.

done a fantastic job I think at least in this case the system has worked in that it is allowing him to race in a class where he is competitive and and able to earn

Markovina · October 2023

This term - drop back on steriods re the handicapping - you cant apply that to Thereugo

I dont know if it has improved since - but i watched its run a couple of weeks back - it was Tuesday night at GP - it might have been its 1st or 2nd start for RR - Lindsay Harper drove it - it walked in front - but in the last lap just gave up - i reckon it got beaten about 30-40 metres and ran last

And i can remember thinking to myself at the time - on that performance - it would be lucky to win a race at West Wyalong or Griffith

JayJay · October 2023

I can...and did...because it is true. Under the previous M/C/R system as it stands today, it would be a M3/C16/R18. Under the current system is eligible $L5 $4k, the lowest class of race at Community Race Meetings at outer tracks. Under NR, it is still rated 87 because of its past...24 wins, 31 placings and $262.6k in stakes.

So the current HWOE/conditioned system has drop backs on mega quantities of steroids.

Maybe, I don't know, but maybe it has had enough of the racing caper after 148 starts, maybe it will come good but it has had a free fall drop back as a Level 15 Free For All horse.

Disagree as much as you like, I am just stating facts. Nothing against the horse or the connections, I think he has been a beauty.

If you think having these allowances in a handicap system is a good thing, then fine. I think it is destroying our product and our future. And the awful turnover figures and failure to return anywhere near sustainable numbers financially support that statement unequivocally. But it's a free world, think what you like.

Chopchop43 · October 2023

JayJay said:
I can...and did...because it is true. Under the previous M/C/R system as it stands today, it would be a M3/C16/R18. Under the current system is eligible $L5 $4k, the lowest class of race at Community Race Meetings at outer tracks. Under NR, it is still rated 87 because of its past...24 wins, 31 placings and $262.6k in stakes.

So the current HWOE/conditioned system has drop backs on mega quantities of steroids.

Maybe, I don't know, but maybe it has had enough of the racing caper after 148 starts, maybe it will come good but it has had a free fall drop back as a Level 15 Free For All horse.

Disagree as much as you like, I am just stating facts. Nothing against the horse or the connections, I think he has been a beauty.

If you think having these allowances in a handicap system is a good thing, then fine. I think it is destroying our product and our future. And the awful turnover figures and failure to return anywhere near sustainable numbers financially support that statement unequivocally. But it's a free world, think what you like.

not a huge fan of this handicapping system so I'll state that first, but with the shrinking pool of horses we have at the moment, the fact a horse like thereugo who isn't racing anywhere close to his best has the ability to race in a class where he has a chance to be competitive and earn for connections is a better situation than losing him from said pool of horses we have in the state, and I'm sure he isn't the only horse in this position

Chopchop43 · October 2023

So just out of curiosity @LightningJake what exactly about that post do you dislike ??

AbbysAce · October 2023

Rocket_Reign said:

JayJay said:
The whole point is that under both these so called handicap systems, Harness Market share continues to plummet to hithertoo never seen depths...well under 12 % of overall turnover and returning now 42 cents in the dollar on stakes paid. It is unsustainable, it can't continue, it is living way beyond it's means.

Tell me how Wooliies or BHP would last in a free market place if they invested $100 million and lost $58 million. They would go broke and shut down. Something has to change in an awful big hurry.

Yeah not sure the handicapping system is to blame for that.

How do you know unless there is change to compare? One thing i do know is alot of people have dropped out of the industry since the new handicapping system has been introduced.

JayJay · October 2023

The "new" system promised to arrest/turn around an already existing decline. It would be disingenuous to suggest the trend wasn't already well established.

However, it's KPI's were unequivocal and and were part of a raft of "reinvigorate the industry" initiatives.

The numbers confirm that like the past litany of "reinvigoration" initiatives, it has been an abject failure, worse than that, an absolute disaster.

It is built on 'recycling" rather than "renewing", it has driven hordes of extra participants to the exit gates and failed to attract new participants in any categories.

The turnover and return on the dollar figures can't be ignored, they are alarming but many choose to ignore. That is their right.

This forum is an opportunity to air various viewpoints as it should and if that involves ignoring the bleeding obvious, then so be it.

Everyone has an opportunity to make a submission to the John Dumesny review of handicapping and they should not let that opportunity slip. The outcome of his review will conceivably set the future direction of our industry.

Rocket_Reign · October 2023

AbbysAce said:

Rocket_Reign said:

JayJay said:
The whole point is that under both these so called handicap systems, Harness Market share continues to plummet to hithertoo never seen depths...well under 12 % of overall turnover and returning now 42 cents in the dollar on stakes paid. It is unsustainable, it can't continue, it is living way beyond it's means.

Tell me how Wooliies or BHP would last in a free market place if they invested $100 million and lost $58 million. They would go broke and shut down. Something has to change in an awful big hurry.

Yeah not sure the handicapping system is to blame for that.
How do you know unless there is change to compare? One thing i do know is alot of people have dropped out of the industry since the new handicapping system has been introduced.

Those people probably leave regardless, doesn’t matter what the system is people whinge and moan just like they did about M/C/R some people just have short memories and forget.

AbbysAce · October 2023

Rocket_Reign said:

AbbysAce said:

Rocket_Reign said:

JayJay said:
The whole point is that under both these so called handicap systems, Harness Market share continues to plummet to hithertoo never seen depths...well under 12 % of overall turnover and returning now 42 cents in the dollar on stakes paid. It is unsustainable, it can't continue, it is living way beyond it's means.

Tell me how Wooliies or BHP would last in a free market place if they invested $100 million and lost $58 million. They would go broke and shut down. Something has to change in an awful big hurry.

Yeah not sure the handicapping system is to blame for that.
How do you know unless there is change to compare? One thing i do know is alot of people have dropped out of the industry since the new handicapping system has been introduced.

Those people probably leave regardless, doesn’t matter what the system is people whinge and moan just like they did about M/C/R some people just have short memories and forget.

I dont think thats 100% right , the feedback I got that they didnt want to race out of form metro horses with their C1/R2 horse.

AbbysAce · October 2023

And one thing that has to be taken into account is this handicapping system was in place when covid hit ( where turnover increased by a large % due to covid restrictions).

Chopchop43 · October 2023

AbbysAce said:

Rocket_Reign said:

AbbysAce said:

Rocket_Reign said:

JayJay said:
The whole point is that under both these so called handicap systems, Harness Market share continues to plummet to hithertoo never seen depths...well under 12 % of overall turnover and returning now 42 cents in the dollar on stakes paid. It is unsustainable, it can't continue, it is living way beyond it's means.

Tell me how Wooliies or BHP would last in a free market place if they invested $100 million and lost $58 million. They would go broke and shut down. Something has to change in an awful big hurry.

Yeah not sure the handicapping system is to blame for that.
How do you know unless there is change to compare? One thing i do know is alot of people have dropped out of the industry since the new handicapping system has been introduced.

Those people probably leave regardless, doesn’t matter what the system is people whinge and moan just like they did about M/C/R some people just have short memories and forget.
I dont think thats 100% right , the feedback I got that they didnt want to race out of form metro horses with their C1/R2 horse.

it would have to be a horribly out of form metro class horse to be racing a c1 r2, I had a horse in the mcr handicapping system called don't wanadie won a m0 got to I think about m1 c8, his last 12 months was deplorable got all the way back to a c1 and i would hardly say he was beating up on horses of lesser quality , actually his last start he happened to win he only just fell in against a very very average field

Rocket_Reign · October 2023

AbbysAce said:

Rocket_Reign said:

AbbysAce said:

Rocket_Reign said:

JayJay said:
The whole point is that under both these so called handicap systems, Harness Market share continues to plummet to hithertoo never seen depths...well under 12 % of overall turnover and returning now 42 cents in the dollar on stakes paid. It is unsustainable, it can't continue, it is living way beyond it's means.

Tell me how Wooliies or BHP would last in a free market place if they invested $100 million and lost $58 million. They would go broke and shut down. Something has to change in an awful big hurry.

Yeah not sure the handicapping system is to blame for that.
How do you know unless there is change to compare? One thing i do know is alot of people have dropped out of the industry since the new handicapping system has been introduced.

Those people probably leave regardless, doesn’t matter what the system is people whinge and moan just like they did about M/C/R some people just have short memories and forget.
I dont think thats 100% right , the feedback I got that they didnt want to race out of form metro horses with their C1/R2 horse.

Possibly but I think most of the time it’s just a cop out, it’s easy to blame the system why your horses aren’t winning

G'day Punter!

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