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Northerly Stakes Day Ratings & Preview
West Australian Racing
Chris
5,736 posts
Race 1: Swan Draught Handicap (1600m)
The Analysis:
We kick off with a tricky mile event. Trio is the textbook "consistent galloper" we love to back. He has finished in the money in 14 of his 23 career starts (60%) and is rarely far away. He drops back from a solid 3rd over 1800m and meets this field nicely at the weights relative to his ratings figure. He maps to get a lovely run just off the speed. The danger is Royal Toronado, who has the "Pike Factor" and closed off strongly for 3rd last start. However, Trio's consistency gives him the edge on my scorecard today.
Recommended Bet:
Medium (1.5 Units) – Trio @ $5.00 (Estimate)
| Selection | Danger | Comment |
| 3. TRIO | 4. ROYAL TORONADO | Consistent type who maps well. Solid value play. |
Race 2: Magic Millions Plate (1000m)
The Analysis:
Two-year-old races are often a minefield, but the trial form here is quite revealing. Ace Queen Suited showed professionalism to win her trial at Belmont, showing a nice turn of foot. She represents a stable that knows how to ready a juvenile. The danger, Red Lark, caught the eye on debut in the Crystal Slipper, making up significant ground from the tail to finish 6th. With natural improvement, he will be charging late, but the 1000m around Ascot favors the speed of the debutant.
Recommended Bet:
Bet (1 Unit) – Ace Queen Suited @ $2.90
| Selection | Danger | Comment |
| 9. ACE QUEEN SUITED | 2. RED LARK | Trial winner who looks ready to go. |
Race 3: Parliamentarians' Cup (2200m)
The Analysis:
Major Mario is a standout "Fifty Percenter" in this field, finishing in the money in 20 of his 31 starts (64%). He is in career-best form, winning over 2100m last start and proving he can stay the trip. He rises slightly in weight but is rock-hard fit and maps to control the tempo or sit handy. Fame is the sleeper; he had no luck last start when held up and has the ratings to surprise if he gets clear air.
Recommended Bet:
High (2 Units) – Major Mario @ $4.20
| Selection | Danger | Comment |
| 5. MAJOR MARIO | 3. FAME | Hard fit, in form, and loves the distance. |
Comments
Race 4: Quayclean Plate (1000m)
The Analysis:
This is a race where class should prevail. Castle Road drops back to his own age group after a gallant effort in the Listed Placid Ark Stakes where he led and was only overhauled late. He boasts a 54% strike rate (Win/Place) and has the early speed to overcome the barrier. He is the clear class runner in this field. Baby Pearl was outclassed in the same race but has previous form that suggests she can bounce back in this easier grade.
Recommended Bet:
Best Bet (3 Units) – Castle Road @ $3.20
Race 5: MCA Polytrack Handicap (1400m)
The Analysis:
A competitive 78+ handicap. Silver Eye is a remarkably consistent animal, placing in 58% of his starts. He fought on bravely for 3rd last start over 1200m and the step up to 1400m looks ideal at this stage of his preparation. He maps to get a soft run. Angel Undercover was excellent winning two starts back but had to work too hard last time out. If she can cross without burning too much fuel, she is a serious threat.
Recommended Bet:
Medium (1.5 Units) – Silver Eye @ $6.50
Race 6: Westspeed Platinum Series Final (1400m)
The Analysis:
Auto Cruise is a horse on the rise. He has finished in the money in 100% of his 4 career starts and unleashed a massive finish to just miss last start. He looks destined for better things than this grade. Gold Maker is another "Fifty Percenter" (57% place rate) who is always around the mark. He will be running on, but Auto Cruise looks to have the higher ceiling.
Recommended Bet:
High (2 Units) – Auto Cruise @ $3.80
Race 7: Schweppes Handicap (1400m)
The Analysis:
I'm looking closely at Our Paladin Al here. He resumes today but boasts an impressive 83% strike rate (5 placings from 6 starts). He flies fresh and has trialled well. If he is anywhere near his top, he rates highly. Skytalker had a genuine excuse last start (elevated heart rate) and his prior form (52% place rate) suggests he can bounce back at odds.
Recommended Bet:
Bet (1 Unit) – Our Paladin Al @ $5.50
Race 8: G.A. Towton Cup (2200m)
The Analysis:
This is a high-quality staying contest. Captain Pluto is a model of consistency (63% place rate). He stormed home for 2nd in the AJ Scahill last start and meets the winner, Simply, on slightly better weight terms. The step to 2200m is right in his wheelhouse. Forever Boy is on the quick back-up (7 days) after a strong win, which is a traditional staying preparation tactic that I respect greatly.
Recommended Bet:
High (2 Units) – Captain Pluto @ $3.50
Race 9: TABtouch - Northerly Stakes (1800m)
The Analysis:
The Group 1 feature. King Of Light is a phenomenon. Undefeated in 5 starts (100%), he takes on the older horses here under Weight-For-Age conditions carrying just 52kg. This weight advantage is massive for a 3YO of his quality. His turn of foot in the WA Guineas was electric. Cosmic Crusader has been a revelation this prep, winning 7 of 15, and Western Empire is the class runner looking to bounce back, but giving 7kg to a flying 3YO is a tall order.
Recommended Bet:
Best Bet (3 Units) – King Of Light @ $2.50
Race 10: Bet Loop Handicap (1000m)
The Analysis:
We finish with a sprint where Richanco looks poised to strike. He is a winning machine with 6 wins from 11 starts (81% place rate). He is unbeaten first-up (3 from 3) and looked sharp winning a recent trial. Barrier 15 is the only concern, but he has the tactical speed to cross. Devine Belief is also a speedster with a great record (73% place rate) but resumes with bar shoes on, which is a slight query.
Recommended Bet:
High (2 Units) – Richanco @ $3.10
Summary of Best Bets
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I hate hyping them up because they sometimes fall flat on their face but hopefully he is the next big shot to take on the East in coming years.
oldhendo, savethegame likes this post.
Bob to Lochie “he does what I tell him to do so it’s going well”
Haha
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Manchild likes this post.
Thought Autocruise was very impressive today
jum likes this post.
You simply cannot rely on Darren McAullay being accurate.
It's a real shame because I like the way he calls and the excitement.
I wonder if he'll ever get this part of his job right?
To become excellent at anything, one needs to realise where your weaknesses are and work on them, much more than practising the things that are fine.
Or is his ego too big to allow this self-reflection?
oldhendo, GLAMOUR, Grandpa, savethegame likes this post.
Grandpa, savethegame likes this post.
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JayJay, oldhendo, GLAMOUR, Manchild likes this post.
bookielover, jum likes this post.
jum, oldhendo likes this post.
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Throughbreds, very little coverage on SEN Turf, then RacingWA / Tabtouch socials gone walk abouts too.
Saturday beaten jocks haven’t done them for weeks now, that and the pre race interviews at the tie ups, completely gone on a Saturday. Hit and miss for little while, seems to be a when we feel like it job.
Wouldn’t mind seeing Sportfm expand the Saturday Off and Running show (previously inside running), with a Racing Rewind type show, and maybe an early look show or something.
What would be ideal is whack something on .com and racingwa TV.